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NWLNewell Brands Inc.Sell5.7·$5.21
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Newell Brands trades at an attractive forward P/E of 7.1x with a PEG of 0.04, but carries an 18% short interest, a put/call ratio of 5.25, a quality score of 2.2/10 with no competitive moat, and an overbought RSI of 75 in the context of a death cross recovery, creating a high-risk environment.

Thesis pillars

  • Attractive Valuation With Quality Deficit↑Improving
  • High Short Interest Bearish Options↓Deteriorating
  • Overbought Rsi In Recovery↓Deteriorating
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 13, 2026

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Newell Brands Inc. (NWL) Stock Analysis

SellValueGrowthModerate Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Household & Personal Products

Earnings today — results expected after close (2026-10-30). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $5.21: Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10. Specifically: High short interest: 15%; Elevated put/call ratio: 2.20; Below-average business quality.

Newell Brands is a global consumer goods company selling well-known brands including Rubbermaid, Sharpie, Graco, Coleman, Yankee Candle and Oster across three segments: Home and Commercial Solutions, Learning and Development, and Outdoor and Recreation, in over 150 countries.... Read more

$5.21+11.2% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#4 of 18 Household & Personal Products
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield18.42%
IncomeYield5.37%(5y avg 4.99%)Payout195.74%at-risk
Stop $4.93Analyst target $5.79(−13% haircut)A.R:R 1.3:1
Analyst consensus$6.66+27.8%8 analysts
$5.79Analyst target
$5.21price
$6.66mean
$11

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $5.21: Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10. Specifically: High short interest: 15%; Elevated put/call ratio: 2.20; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.60, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 0d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-10-29

Recent Developments — Newell Brands Inc.

Generated 2026-10-29T11:14:34Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Fri, Oct 30, 2026Earnings today — results expected after close· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Recent Analyst detected in news
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: Baby business unit single-source supplier
Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)—
P/E (Fwd)7.6
Mkt Cap$2.2B
EV/EBITDA8.5
Profit Mgn-3.0%
ROE-8.6%
Rev Growth3.0%
Beta0.87
Dividend5.37%
Rating analysts12

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C2.20bearish
IV83%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • LOWCustomerAmazon17%
    10-K Item 1: 'The Company's largest customer in 2025, Amazon, accounted for approximately 17%, 15% and 13% of net sales in 2025, 2024 and 2023, respectively.'
  • LOWCustomerWalmart13%
    10-K Item 1: 'Walmart Inc. and subsidiaries (“Walmart”), the Company's second largest customer in 2025, accounted for approximately 13%, 14% and 15% of net sales in 2025, 2024 and 2023, respectively.'
  • HIGHSupplierBaby business unit single-source supplier
    10-K Item 1: 'the Baby business unit within the Company's L&D segment has a single source of supply for products that comprise a majority of its sales and that owns the intellectual property for many of those products.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-13Item 5.07LOW
    Newell Brands stockholders approved the Newell Brands Inc. 2026 Incentive Plan at the May 7, 2026 annual meeting; a routine equity-plan approval with vote results reported.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Risk profile below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Put Call
0.0
Implied Vol
0.0
Volatility
1.9
Days To Cover
2.3
Short Interest
2.5
Debt Equity
2.7
Beta
7.8
Elevated put/call: 2.20High IV: 83%Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)

Unprofitable operations — net margin -3.0%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Roa
2.2
Gross Margin
3.1
Moat
3.9
Current Ratio
4.3
Operating Margin
5.9
Piotroski F
6.7
No competitive moat

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Obv
1.0
Volume
3.3
Macd
3.4
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
7.9
Uptrend pullback (RSI 36) - buy opportunityVolume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.9<4.5A.R:R 1.3 < 1.5@spotEARNINGS PROXIMITY 0d<=7dInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.60SEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
36 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $5.08Resistance $5.92

Price Targets

$5
$6
A.Upside+11.2%
A.R:R1.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0)
! momentum at 3.9 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 1.3 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-30 (Earnings today — results expected after close)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NWL stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $5.21: Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10. Specifically: High short interest: 15%; Elevated put/call ratio: 2.20; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $4.93. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the NWL stock price target?

Analyst target: $5.79 (+11.2% upside). Prior stop was $4.93. Stop-loss: $4.93.

What are the risks of investing in NWL?

Concentration risk — Supplier: Baby business unit single-source supplier; Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0).

Is NWL overvalued or undervalued?

Newell Brands Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 7.6). TrendMatrix value score: 8.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about NWL?

12 analysts cover NWL with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $7.

What does Newell Brands Inc. do?Newell Brands is a global consumer goods company selling well-known brands including Rubbermaid, Sharpie, Graco,...

Newell Brands is a global consumer goods company selling well-known brands including Rubbermaid, Sharpie, Graco, Coleman, Yankee Candle and Oster across three segments: Home and Commercial Solutions, Learning and Development, and Outdoor and Recreation, in over 150 countries. The company's largest customer, Amazon, accounted for approximately 17% of 2025 net sales, followed by Walmart at approximately 13%, and Newell is executing a multi-year turnaround including a December 2025 global Productivity Plan that will cut its workforce by more than 900 employees.

Related stocks: SPB (Spectrum Brands Holdings, Inc.) · ELF (e.l.f. Beauty, Inc.) · HELE (Helen of Troy Limited) · IPAR (Interparfums, Inc.) · MAGN (Magnera Corporation)
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