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ELEstee Lauder Companies, Inc. (TSell4.5·$89.68+1.89%
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Estee Lauder Companies, Inc. (T (EL) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Household & Personal Products

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $89.68 — A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.3): -1.5.

Estée Lauder is a global manufacturer, marketer and seller of prestige beauty products across skin care, makeup, fragrance and hair care under 20+ brands including Estée Lauder, Clinique, M·A·C, La Mer and TOM FORD, sold in approximately 150 countries. Revenue is generated... Read more

$89.68+0.5% A.UpsideScore 4.5/10#13 of 13 Household & Personal Products
QualityF-score5 / 9FCF yield5.57%
IncomeYield1.56%(5y avg 1.62%)Payout471.43%at-risk
Stop $83.44Target $90.15(resistance)A.R:R -0.3:1
Analyst target$95.12+6.1%25 analysts
$90.15our TP
$89.68price
$95.12mean
$70
$125

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $89.68 — A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.3): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 53. Score 4.5/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 67d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and 8k serious 2.05. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-13
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 19, 202667d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.3): -1.5
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)28.1
Mkt Cap$32.4B
EV/EBITDA16.4
Profit Mgn-1.7%
ROE-5.9%
Rev Growth4.6%
Beta1.25
Dividend1.56%
Rating analysts34

Quality Signals

Piotroski F5/9

Options Flow

P/C0.87neutral
IV51%elevated
Max Pain$25-72.1% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-01Item 2.05MEDIUM
    Estée Lauder updated its Profit Recovery and Growth Plan (PRGP) restructuring program, expanded in February 2025 to include reorganization/rightsizing, process simplification, outsourcing and go-to-market footprint evolution. Cumulative charges updated; full expected amounts not re-quantified in this amendment.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
3.7

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
1.4
Bollinger
2.0
52w Position
4.8

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
0.0
Earnings History
3.3
Dividend Safety
3.5
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
5.0
Earnings concerns: 2B/2MYield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
GatesA.R:R -0.3=NEGATIVE8K SERIOUS 2.05Death cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 6.5>=5.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 67d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
53 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $74.97Resistance $91.99

Price Targets

$83
$90
A.Upside+0.5%
A.R:R-0.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-4.5% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside
! 8K_SERIOUS:2.05

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-19 (67d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is EL stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $89.68 — A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.3): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 53. Prior stop was $83.44. Score 4.5/10, high confidence.

What is the EL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $90.15 (+0.5% upside). Prior stop was $83.44. Stop-loss: $83.44.

What are the risks of investing in EL?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.3): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is EL overvalued or undervalued?

Estee Lauder Companies, Inc. (T trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 28.1). TrendMatrix value score: 4.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about EL?

34 analysts cover EL with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $95.

What does Estee Lauder Companies, Inc. (T do?Estée Lauder is a global manufacturer, marketer and seller of prestige beauty products across skin care, makeup,...

Estée Lauder is a global manufacturer, marketer and seller of prestige beauty products across skin care, makeup, fragrance and hair care under 20+ brands including Estée Lauder, Clinique, M·A·C, La Mer and TOM FORD, sold in approximately 150 countries. Revenue is generated through wholesale channels and ~1,600 freestanding stores; the largest client provides approximately 3% of total revenue, reflecting broad diversification.

Related stocks: KVUE (Kenvue Inc.) · UL (Unilever PLC) · ELF (e.l.f. Beauty, Inc.) · KMB (Kimberly-Clark Corporation) · IPAR (Interparfums, Inc.)
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