Church & Dwight has delivered four consecutive earnings beats and converts net income to free cash flow at a well above average rate, but the stock has already traded past its near-term price target with a negative risk/reward and a 24x forward earnings multiple, while heavy revenue concentration in U.S. markets and a narrow brand portfolio leaves limited margin for disappointment.
Thesis pillars
- Exceptional Free Cash Conversion→Stable
- Perfect Four Quarter Beat Streak↑Improving
- Stretched Valuation Above Target↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 12, 2026
Church & Dwight Company, Inc. (CHD) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup
Consumer Defensive · Household & Personal Products
Wait for pullback to $99.19. Price sits above the model's entry target of $99.19; the risk/reward becomes favorable on a pullback. Key risks: Concentration risk — Geographic: U.S. markets (82.0%); Concentration risk — Product: seven power brands (70.0%).
Church & Dwight develops and markets household and personal care products under brands including ARM & HAMMER, TROJAN, WATERPIK, and OXICLEAN across Consumer Domestic, Consumer International, and Specialty Products segments. Walmart accounts for approximately 23% of net sales;... Read more
Wait for pullback to $99.19. Price sits above the model's entry target of $99.19; the risk/reward becomes favorable on a pullback. Key risks: Concentration risk — Geographic: U.S. markets (82.0%); Concentration risk — Product: seven power brands (70.0%). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 69, MACD bullish. Earnings in 1 day. Wait until post-earnings. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.40, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 1d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — Church & Dwight Company, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Church & Dwight (CHD) Q2 Earnings Report Preview: What To Look For - StockStory — StockStory neutral
- NEWS Church & Dwight Co., Inc. Declares 501st Regular Quarterly Dividend - Business Wire — Business Wire neutral
- NEWS JPMorgan Maintains Neutral Rating on Church & Dwight (CHD) - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance neutral
- NEWS What to Expect From Church & Dwight's Q2 2026 Earnings Report - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance neutral
- NEWS Swiss National Bank Grows Position in Church & Dwight Co., Inc. $CHD - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
Generated 2026-10-29T11:53:50Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- LOWCustomerWalmart23%10-K Item 1A: 'Walmart is our largest customer, accounting for approximately 23% of net sales in each of 2025, 2024, and 2023'
- MEDIUMCustomertop four customers44%10-K Item 1A: 'Our top four customers accounted for approximately 44%, 43%, and 44% of net sales in 2025, 2024, and 2023, respectively'
- HIGHGeographicU.S. markets82%10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 82% of our sales were generated in U.S. markets'
- HIGHProductseven power brands70%10-K Item 1: 'Seven of those brands are designated as "power brands" ... represent approximately 70% of our net sales and profits'
- MEDIUMSupplierTata Chemicals (Soda Ash) Partners10-K Item 1: 'a partnership agreement with Tata Chemicals (Soda Ash) Partners ... We fulfill a substantial amount of our soda ash supply requirements through the partnership'
- HIGHSuppliersole source contract manufacturers (certain products)10-K Item 1A: 'sole source contract manufacturers and suppliers for certain products'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $99.19. Price sits above the model's entry target of $99.19; the risk/reward becomes favorable on a pullback. Key risks: Concentration risk — Geographic: U.S. markets (82.0%); Concentration risk — Product: seven power brands (70.0%). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 69, MACD bullish. Earnings in 1 day. Wait until post-earnings. Analyst target $94.41 reached (−9.9%), stop $94.97 (−10.3%), A.R:R -0.9:1. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target $94.41 reached (−9.9% from $104.75); no take-profit level is published. Analyst target $94.41 reached (−9.9%), stop $94.97 (−10.3%), A.R:R -0.9:1. Stop-loss: $94.97.
Concentration risk — Geographic: U.S. markets (82.0%); Concentration risk — Product: seven power brands (70.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
Church & Dwight Company, Inc. trades at a P/E of 33.6 (forward 26.0). TrendMatrix value score: 4.0/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
26 analysts cover CHD with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $105.
What does Church & Dwight Company, Inc. do?Church & Dwight develops and markets household and personal care products under brands including ARM & HAMMER, TROJAN,...
Church & Dwight develops and markets household and personal care products under brands including ARM & HAMMER, TROJAN, WATERPIK, and OXICLEAN across Consumer Domestic, Consumer International, and Specialty Products segments. Walmart accounts for approximately 23% of net sales; seven power brands generate roughly 70% of net sales and profits. International revenue represented approximately 18% of consolidated net sales in 2025.