Church & Dwight has delivered four consecutive earnings beats and converts net income to free cash flow at a well above average rate, but the stock has already traded past its near-term price target with a negative risk/reward and a 24x forward earnings multiple, while heavy revenue concentration in U.S. markets and a narrow brand portfolio leaves limited margin for disappointment.
Thesis pillars
- Exceptional Free Cash Conversion→Stable
- Perfect Four Quarter Beat Streak↑Improving
- Stretched Valuation Above Target→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Church & Dwight Company, Inc. (CHD) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup
Consumer Defensive · Household & Personal Products
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $99.22, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: U.S. markets (82.0%); Concentration risk — Product: seven power brands (70.0%).
Church & Dwight develops and markets household and personal care products under brands including ARM & HAMMER, TROJAN, WATERPIK, and OXICLEAN across Consumer Domestic, Consumer International, and Specialty Products segments. Walmart accounts for approximately 23% of net sales;... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $99.22, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: U.S. markets (82.0%); Concentration risk — Product: seven power brands (70.0%). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 55, MACD bullish. Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $99.17 has reached target $99.65. No upside to wait for. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 0d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-31Recent Developments — Church & Dwight Company, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Church & Dwight (CHD) Q2 Earnings Report Preview: What To Look For - StockStory — StockStory neutral
- NEWS Church & Dwight Co., Inc. Declares 501st Regular Quarterly Dividend - Business Wire — Business Wire neutral
- NEWS JPMorgan Maintains Neutral Rating on Church & Dwight (CHD) - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance neutral
- NEWS What to Expect From Church & Dwight's Q2 2026 Earnings Report - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance neutral
- NEWS Swiss National Bank Grows Position in Church & Dwight Co., Inc. $CHD - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
Generated 2026-07-31T23:42:48Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- LOWCustomerWalmart23%10-K Item 1A: 'Walmart is our largest customer, accounting for approximately 23% of net sales in each of 2025, 2024, and 2023'
- MEDIUMCustomertop four customers44%10-K Item 1A: 'Our top four customers accounted for approximately 44%, 43%, and 44% of net sales in 2025, 2024, and 2023, respectively'
- HIGHGeographicU.S. markets82%10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 82% of our sales were generated in U.S. markets'
- HIGHProductseven power brands70%10-K Item 1: 'Seven of those brands are designated as "power brands" ... represent approximately 70% of our net sales and profits'
- MEDIUMSupplierTata Chemicals (Soda Ash) Partners10-K Item 1: 'a partnership agreement with Tata Chemicals (Soda Ash) Partners ... We fulfill a substantial amount of our soda ash supply requirements through the partnership'
- HIGHSuppliersole source contract manufacturers (certain products)10-K Item 1A: 'sole source contract manufacturers and suppliers for certain products'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $99.22, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: U.S. markets (82.0%); Concentration risk — Product: seven power brands (70.0%). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 55, MACD bullish. Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $99.17 has reached target $99.65. No upside to wait for. Target $99.65 (+0.4%), stop $87.20 (−13.8%), A.R:R -1.1:1. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $99.65 (-5.8% upside). Target $99.65 (+0.4%), stop $87.20 (−13.8%), A.R:R -1.1:1. Stop-loss: $87.20.
Concentration risk — Geographic: U.S. markets (82.0%); Concentration risk — Product: seven power brands (70.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
Church & Dwight Company, Inc. trades at a P/E of 32.9 (forward 24.1). TrendMatrix value score: 4.3/10. Verdict: Hold.
26 analysts cover CHD with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $104.
What does Church & Dwight Company, Inc. do?Church & Dwight develops and markets household and personal care products under brands including ARM & HAMMER, TROJAN,...
Church & Dwight develops and markets household and personal care products under brands including ARM & HAMMER, TROJAN, WATERPIK, and OXICLEAN across Consumer Domestic, Consumer International, and Specialty Products segments. Walmart accounts for approximately 23% of net sales; seven power brands generate roughly 70% of net sales and profits. International revenue represented approximately 18% of consolidated net sales in 2025.