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DPZDomino's Pizza IncSell4.9·$319.14-1.46%
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Domino's Pizza Inc (DPZ) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $319.14 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Supplier: single U.S. pizza cheese supplier; Concentration risk — Supplier: single U.S. meat toppings supplier.

Domino's Pizza is the largest pizza company globally with 22,100+ locations in 90+ markets, operating as a franchisor (99% of stores franchised) with three segments: U.S. stores (32.6%), international franchise (6.9%), and supply chain (60.5%). Revenue is earned via royalties,... Read more

$319.14+14.0% A.UpsideScore 4.9/10#16 of 20 Restaurants
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield4.87%
IncomeYield2.46%(5y avg 1.25%)Payout41.51%sustainable
Stop $303.72Target $363.88(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 1.9:1
Analyst target$404.31+26.7%29 analysts
$363.88our TP
$319.14price
$404.31mean
$290
$544

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $319.14 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Supplier: single U.S. pizza cheese supplier; Concentration risk — Supplier: single U.S. meat toppings supplier. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 62. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 35d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Mon, Jul 20, 202635d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: single U.S. pizza cheese supplier
Concentration risk — Supplier: single U.S. meat toppings supplier
Consecutive earnings misses (3)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)18.7
P/E (Fwd)15.5
Mkt Cap$10.8B
EV/EBITDA15.3
Profit Mgn11.9%
ROE
Rev Growth3.5%
Beta0.97
Dividend2.46%
Rating analysts37

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.05bullish
IV55%elevated
Max Pain$460+44.1% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHSuppliersingle U.S. pizza cheese supplier
    10-K Item 1: 'We currently purchase our U.S. pizza cheese from a single supplier. Under our December 2024 agreement which expires in December 2029'
  • HIGHSuppliersingle U.S. meat toppings supplier
    10-K Item 1: 'The majority of our meat toppings in the U.S. come from a single supplier under a contract which was renegotiated in December 2025 and expires at the end of December 2027'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-27Item 5.02LOW
    Brian J. Pangburn appointed VP-Controller as principal accounting officer effective April 21, 2026. Prior CAO Jessica Parrish transitions to different finance leadership role and continues as VP. No departure.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-02-20Item 5.02LOW
    James A. Goldman retiring from Board after 15+ years; will not stand for reelection at 2026 Annual Meeting. No disagreement with Company cited.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.7
Support Resistance
2.5
52w Position
3.1

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
1.1
Revenue Growth
3.4

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.9
Obv
1.0
Rsi
3.8
Ma Position
4.0
Macd
10.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.0%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 3.9<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentA.R:R 1.9 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 35d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
62 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $295.65Resistance $326.85

Price Targets

$304
$364
A.Upside+14.0%
A.R:R1.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 3.9 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-20 (35d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is DPZ stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $319.14 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Supplier: single U.S. pizza cheese supplier; Concentration risk — Supplier: single U.S. meat toppings supplier. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 62. Prior stop was $303.72. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the DPZ stock price target?

Take-profit target: $363.88 (+14.0% upside). Prior stop was $303.72. Stop-loss: $303.72.

What are the risks of investing in DPZ?

Concentration risk — Supplier: single U.S. pizza cheese supplier; Concentration risk — Supplier: single U.S. meat toppings supplier; Consecutive earnings misses (3).

Is DPZ overvalued or undervalued?

Domino's Pizza Inc trades at a P/E of 18.7 (forward 15.5). TrendMatrix value score: 6.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about DPZ?

37 analysts cover DPZ with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $404.

What does Domino's Pizza Inc do?Domino's Pizza is the largest pizza company globally with 22,100+ locations in 90+ markets, operating as a franchisor...

Domino's Pizza is the largest pizza company globally with 22,100+ locations in 90+ markets, operating as a franchisor (99% of stores franchised) with three segments: U.S. stores (32.6%), international franchise (6.9%), and supply chain (60.5%). Revenue is earned via royalties, fees, and supply chain sales; the company processes 85%+ of U.S. retail sales through digital channels.

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