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DISWalt Disney Company (The)Sell5.3·$99.82-0.52%
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Walt Disney Company (The) (DIS) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellModerate Confidence

Communication Services · Entertainment

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.6/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $99.82 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Weak growth.

The Walt Disney Company, together with the subsidiaries through which businesses are conducted (the Company), is a diversified worldwide entertainment company with operations in three segments: Entertainment, Sports and Experiences.

$99.82+16.7% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#15 of 28 Entertainment
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield2.16%
IncomeYield1.50%(5y avg 1.38%)Payout20.00%sustainable
Stop $96.10Target $116.70(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 3.3:1
Analyst target$129.67+29.9%29 analysts
$116.70our TP
$99.82price
$129.67mean
$77
$164

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.6/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $99.82 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Weak growth. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 38, MACD bearish. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news boost analyst 0.60, earnings proximity 53d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-14
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 5, 202653d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Recent Analyst detected in news
Risks
Weak growth
Negative momentum
Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.0%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)16.0
P/E (Fwd)13.3
Mkt Cap$173.7B
EV/EBITDA11.3
Profit Mgn11.5%
ROE11.0%
Rev Growth6.5%
Beta1.39
Dividend1.50%
Rating analysts36

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.34bearish
IV38%normal

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
4.1

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Ma Position
1.0
Volume
3.3
Rsi
3.5
Obv
10.0
Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.0%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 3.6<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentA.R:R 3.3 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.60EARNINGS PROXIMITY 53d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
38 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $97.95Resistance $105.42

Price Targets

$96
$117
A.Upside+16.9%
A.R:R3.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 3.6 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (53d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is DIS stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.6/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $99.82 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Weak growth. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 38, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $96.10. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the DIS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $116.70 (+16.7% upside). Prior stop was $96.10. Stop-loss: $96.10.

What are the risks of investing in DIS?

Weak growth; Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.0%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is DIS overvalued or undervalued?

Walt Disney Company (The) trades at a P/E of 16.0 (forward 13.3). TrendMatrix value score: 7.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about DIS?

36 analysts cover DIS with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $130.

What does Walt Disney Company (The) do?The Walt Disney Company, together with the subsidiaries through which businesses are conducted (the Company), is a...

The Walt Disney Company, together with the subsidiaries through which businesses are conducted (the Company), is a diversified worldwide entertainment company with operations in three segments: Entertainment, Sports and Experiences.

Related stocks: NFLX (Netflix, Inc.) · TKO (TKO Group Holdings, Inc.) · ROKU (Roku, Inc.) · FOX (Fox Corporation) · FOXA (Fox Corporation)
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