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NFLXNetflix, Inc.Hold6.2·$80.60+0.32%
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Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup · Temp Headwind edge

HoldModerate Confidence

Communication Services · Entertainment

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $80.60, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Negative momentum.

Netflix, Inc. ("Netflix", the "Company", "registrant", "we", or "us") is one of the world's leading entertainment services offering TV series, films, games and live programming across a wide variety of genres and languages. Members can play, pause and resume watching as much as... Read more

$80.60+30.7% A.UpsideScore 6.2/10#2 of 28 Entertainment
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield7.68%
Stop $76.90Target $105.01(analyst − 8%)A.R:R 6.1:1
Analyst target$114.15+41.6%44 analysts
$105.01our TP
$80.60price
$114.15mean
$151

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $80.60, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Negative momentum. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 15, MACD bearish. Wide-moat business. Accumulate on weakness. | News modifier -1 (STRONG_BUY_WAIT → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 31d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 16, 202631d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
High-quality business
Strong growth profile
Wide economic moat
Risks
Consecutive earnings misses (2)
Negative momentum
Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.9%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)25.9
P/E (Fwd)20.9
Mkt Cap$338.3B
EV/EBITDA24.0
Profit Mgn28.5%
ROE48.5%
Rev Growth16.2%
Beta1.49
DividendNone
Rating analysts58

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C2.33bearish
IV42%normal

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-16Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On April 10, 20 [... truncated]
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.1
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
3.0
Volume
3.7
Capitulation risk (RSI 15, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.9%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 1.8<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentA.R:R 6.1 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 31d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
15 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $79.28Resistance $91.48

Price Targets

$77
$105
A.Upside+30.3%
A.R:R6.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=-1: STRONG_BUY_WAIT → HOLD_IF_HOLDING
! momentum at 1.8 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-16 (31d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NFLX stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $80.60, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Negative momentum. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 15, MACD bearish. Wide-moat business. Accumulate on weakness. | News modifier -1 (STRONG_BUY_WAIT → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Target $105.01 (+30.3%), stop $76.90 (−4.8%), A.R:R 6.1:1. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the NFLX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $105.01 (+30.7% upside). Target $105.01 (+30.3%), stop $76.90 (−4.8%), A.R:R 6.1:1. Stop-loss: $76.90.

What are the risks of investing in NFLX?

Consecutive earnings misses (2); Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.9%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is NFLX overvalued or undervalued?

Netflix, Inc. trades at a P/E of 25.9 (forward 20.9). TrendMatrix value score: 5.4/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about NFLX?

58 analysts cover NFLX with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $114.

What does Netflix, Inc. do?Netflix, Inc. ("Netflix", the "Company", "registrant", "we", or "us") is one of the world's leading entertainment...

Netflix, Inc. ("Netflix", the "Company", "registrant", "we", or "us") is one of the world's leading entertainment services offering TV series, films, games and live programming across a wide variety of genres and languages. Members can play, pause and resume watching as much as they want, anytime, anywhere, and can change their plans at any time.

Related stocks: TKO (TKO Group Holdings, Inc.) · DIS (Walt Disney Company (The)) · LYV (Live Nation Entertainment, Inc.) · WBD (Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. - )
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