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FWONALiberty Media Corporation - SerSell4.8·$81.24+1.22%
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Liberty Media Corporation - Ser (FWONA) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Communication Services · Entertainment

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $81.24 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Regulatory: FIA; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8).

Liberty Media Corporation holds the exclusive commercial rights to the F1 Championship (via Delta Topco/Formula 1) and MotoGP, with operations headquartered in the UK and Spain. Revenue derives from race promotion (26.7%), media rights (31.3%), and sponsorship (21.7%); Formula... Read more

$81.24+15.5% A.UpsideScore 4.8/10#20 of 28 Entertainment
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield3.25%
Stop $76.66Target $93.81(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.7:1
Analyst target$107.83+32.7%6 analysts
$93.81our TP
$81.24price
$107.83mean
$115

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $81.24 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Regulatory: FIA; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8). Chart setup: RSI 47 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 4.8/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 58d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-09
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 6, 202658d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Risks
Concentration risk — Regulatory: FIA
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8)
Sector modifier (Communication Services): -0.8

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)35.0
P/E (Fwd)32.6
Mkt Cap$20.1B
EV/EBITDA28.7
Profit Mgn5.6%
ROE2.7%
Rev Growth18.3%
Beta0.67
DividendNone
Rating analysts18

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.22bullish
IV61%elevated
Max Pain$75-7.7% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHregulatoryFIA
    10-K Item 1A: 'The FIA may terminate the 100-Year Agreements... Termination of the 100-Year Agreements could cause Formula 1 to discontinue its operations'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-06Item 5.02MEDIUM
    On March 5, 2026, Liberty Media announced Renee L. Wilm will transition from Chief Legal Officer and Chief Administrative Officer of Liberty Media, Liberty Live Holdings, and Liberty Broadband to Senior Advisor, effective later in 2026. No successor CLO/CAO named for Liberty Media.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
4.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.4%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 1.3<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentA.R:R 2.7 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 58d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
47 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $78.62Resistance $85.83

Price Targets

$77
$94
A.Upside+15.5%
A.R:R2.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 1.3 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (58d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FWONA stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $81.24 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Regulatory: FIA; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8). Chart setup: RSI 47 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $76.66. Score 4.8/10, high confidence.

What is the FWONA stock price target?

Take-profit target: $93.81 (+15.5% upside). Prior stop was $76.66. Stop-loss: $76.66.

What are the risks of investing in FWONA?

Concentration risk — Regulatory: FIA; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8); Sector modifier (Communication Services): -0.8.

Is FWONA overvalued or undervalued?

Liberty Media Corporation - Ser trades at a P/E of 35.0 (forward 32.6). TrendMatrix value score: 4.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about FWONA?

18 analysts cover FWONA with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $108.

What does Liberty Media Corporation - Ser do?Liberty Media Corporation holds the exclusive commercial rights to the F1 Championship (via Delta Topco/Formula 1) and...

Liberty Media Corporation holds the exclusive commercial rights to the F1 Championship (via Delta Topco/Formula 1) and MotoGP, with operations headquartered in the UK and Spain. Revenue derives from race promotion (26.7%), media rights (31.3%), and sponsorship (21.7%); Formula 1's license from the FIA runs until 2110 and is critical to all operations.

Related stocks: NWSA (News Corporation) · NWS (News Corporation) · CNK (Cinemark Holdings Inc Cinemark ) · WMG (Warner Music Group Corp.) · SPHR (Sphere Entertainment Co.)
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