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Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing

Valero Energy Corporation manufactures, markets, and sells petroleum-based and low-carbon liquid transportation fuels and petrochemical products in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Ireland, Latin America, Mexico, Peru, and internationally. It operates through three... Read more

$234.54+3.5% upside
Score 4.4/10Target $242.78Reward/Risk 0.2:1

TrendMatrix rates Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) as Sell with moderate confidence. The stock trades at $234.54 with +3.5% upside to the $242.78 price target. Overall score: 4.4/10 across 10 analysis dimensions. Reward/risk ratio: 0.2:1.

Passes 2/4 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Val5.3Qual4.2Grw2.0Mom3.6Sent6.5Ins3.2Peer3.2Tech5.2Risk6.64.4OVERALL

Investment Thesis

+ Sector modifier (): +1.2
+ Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
- Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
- V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.2)
- Weak overall score: 4.4/10

Fundamentals

P/E (TTM)31.9
P/E (Fwd)16.8
Mkt Cap$72.3B
EV/EBITDA10.6
Profit Mgn2.0%
ROE8.3%
Rev Growth-2.1%
Beta0.73
Dividend2.02%
Analysts26
Frequently Asked Questions
Is VLO stock a buy right now?

TrendMatrix rates Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) as Sell with moderate confidence. Score 4.4/10.

What is the VLO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $242.78 (+3.5% upside). Reward/risk ratio: 0.2:1. Stop-loss: $190.97.

What are the risks of investing in VLO?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.2); Weak overall score: 4.4/10.

Is VLO overvalued or undervalued?

Valero Energy Corporation trades at a P/E of 31.9 (forward 16.8). TrendMatrix value score: 5.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about VLO?

26 analysts cover VLO with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $214.

What does Valero Energy Corporation do?Valero Energy Corporation manufactures, markets, and sells petroleum-based and low-carbon liquid transportation fuels...

Valero Energy Corporation manufactures, markets, and sells petroleum-based and low-carbon liquid transportation fuels and petrochemical products in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Ireland, Latin America, Mexico, Peru, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Refining, Renewable Diesel, and Ethanol. The company produces California Reformulated Gasoline Blendstock for Oxygenate Blending (CARBOB) and Conventional Blendstock for Oxygenate Blending (CBOB) gasolines, CARB diesel, diesel, jet fuel, heating oil, and asphalt; feedstocks; aromatics; sulfur and residual fuel oil; intermediate oils; and sulfur, sweet, and sour crude oils. It sells its refined products through wholesale rack and bulk markets; and through outlets under the Valero, Beacon, Diamond Shamrock, Shamrock, Ultramar, and Texaco brands. The company also owns and operates renewable diesel and ethanol plants, as well as produces and sells renewable diesel, renewable naphtha, and neat sustainable aviation fuel under the Diamond Green Diesel brand name. In addition, it offers ethanol and various co-products, including dry distillers grains, syrup, and inedible distillers corn oil to animal feed customers. The company was formerly known as Valero Refining and Marketing Company and changed its name to Valero Energy Corporation in August 1997. Valero Energy Corporation was founded in 1980 and is headquartered in San Antonio, Texas.

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55 NEUTRAL
20d50d200dGOLDEN CROSSSupp $196.88Res $247.73

Price Targets

$191
$243
Upside+3.5%
Reward/Risk0.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNONE
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRISK_OFF

Risk Alerts

! V8: Target reached (-22.4% upside)
! MOMENTUM:3.6<5.0
! ASYMMETRY:-1.4=NEGATIVE
RANGE BOUNDSuitability: Moderate
Insider activity: OK
No SEC red flags
Momentum 3.6<5.0
Risk/Reward -1.4=NEGATIVE