Dine Brands screens cheaply with strong cash conversion and a confirmed technical breakout, but a failed negative-asymmetry gate at a reached price target, consecutive earnings misses, and high short interest keep the engine cautious.
Thesis pillars
- Attractive Valuation Cheap Multiples→Stable
- Negative Asymmetry Target Reached→Stable
- Consecutive Earnings Misses Weak Growth→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Dine Brands Global, Inc. Common (DIN) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup · Inst Constrain edge
Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants
Sell if holding. At $34.11, A.R:R is negative (-1.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: top five Applebee's franchisees (57.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: Centralized Supply Chain Services (CSCS).
Dine Brands Global owns and franchises IHOP, Applebee's, and Fuzzy's Taco Shop, operating 3,509 restaurants as of December 28, 2025, the substantial majority run by independent franchisees. IHOP and Applebee's together generated approximately 74% of 2025 revenue, and the... Read more
Sell if holding. At $34.11, A.R:R is negative (-1.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: top five Applebee's franchisees (57.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: Centralized Supply Chain Services (CSCS). Chart setup: RSI 58 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 29d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCustomertop five Applebee's franchisees57%10-K Item 1: 'Our five largest Applebee's franchisees owned 57% of the total 1,520 Applebee's franchised restaurants.'
- MEDIUMCustomertop five Fuzzy's franchisees41%10-K Item 1: 'Our five largest Fuzzy's franchisees owned 41% of the total 105 Fuzzy's franchise restaurants.'
- MEDIUMCustomertop five IHOP franchisees32%10-K Item 1: 'Our five largest IHOP franchisees owned 32% of the total 1,812 IHOP franchised restaurants.'
- HIGHSupplierCentralized Supply Chain Services (CSCS)10-K Item 1: 'CSCS has been appointed as the sole authorized purchasing organization and purchasing agent for goods, equipment and distribution services for IHOP and Applebee's restaurants in the United States.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-06-02Item 5.02LOWOn June 1, 2026, the Board appointed Lawrence Y. Kim, President of the IHOP Business Unit, to the additional role of Chief Commercial Officer, raising his base salary to $850,000 and target bonus to 125%, plus a retention grant of up to $3.0 million in RSUs vesting in 2029. Routine expanded-role appointment; not a departure.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $34.11, A.R:R is negative (-1.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: top five Applebee's franchisees (57.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: Centralized Supply Chain Services (CSCS). Chart setup: RSI 58 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $31.79. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $36.23 (+6.0% upside). Prior stop was $31.79. Stop-loss: $31.79.
Concentration risk — Customer: top five Applebee's franchisees (57.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: Centralized Supply Chain Services (CSCS); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
Dine Brands Global, Inc. Common trades at a P/E of 31.0 (forward 6.9). TrendMatrix value score: 8.0/10. Verdict: Sell.
15 analysts cover DIN with a consensus score of 2.6/5. Average price target: $32.
What does Dine Brands Global, Inc. Common do?Dine Brands Global owns and franchises IHOP, Applebee's, and Fuzzy's Taco Shop, operating 3,509 restaurants as of...
Dine Brands Global owns and franchises IHOP, Applebee's, and Fuzzy's Taco Shop, operating 3,509 restaurants as of December 28, 2025, the substantial majority run by independent franchisees. IHOP and Applebee's together generated approximately 74% of 2025 revenue, and the company's royalty base is concentrated among large operators: the five largest Applebee's franchisees control 57% of that brand's franchised restaurants, versus 41% for Fuzzy's and 32% for IHOP.