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DECKDeckers Outdoor CorporationHold5.9·$113.83-0.47%
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Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

HoldModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Footwear & Accessories

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $113.83, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: Vietnam and Indonesia manufacturing; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Deckers Outdoor Corporation designs and distributes footwear, apparel, and accessories under three brands: HOKA (performance running), UGG (premium casual), and Teva (outdoor). The company sells through wholesale retailers and a Direct-to-Consumer channel comprising 203... Read more

$113.83+21.3% A.UpsideScore 5.9/10#3 of 7 Footwear & Accessories
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield5.41%
Entry $94.16(support + ATR)Stop $89.54Target $114.17(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.0:1Setup A.R:R 4.3:1
Analyst target$126.86+11.4%21 analysts
$114.17our TP
$113.83price
$126.86mean
$90
$184

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $113.83, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: Vietnam and Indonesia manufacturing; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 63, MACD bullish. Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $113.83 has reached target $114.17. No upside to wait for. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 41d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 23, 202641d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Contrarian signal: extreme negativity (-1.00) on quality business
High-quality business
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: Vietnam and Indonesia manufacturing
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Weak growth

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)16.3
P/E (Fwd)13.8
Mkt Cap$15.9B
EV/EBITDA10.7
Profit Mgn18.7%
ROE40.9%
Rev Growth9.6%
Beta1.15
DividendNone
Rating analysts33

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C1.28bearish
IV47%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicVietnam and Indonesia manufacturing
    10-K Item 1A: 'the majority of which are located in Southeast Asia, predominantly in Vietnam and Indonesia, which exposes us to geographic concentration risk'
  • MEDIUMSuppliertwo tanneries in China (sheepskin)
    10-K Item 1A: 'processed largely by two tanneries in China capable of meeting our quality, volume, and animal welfare standards'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
1.0
Revenue Growth
4.9
GatesA.R:R 0.0 < 1.5@spotMomentum 6.8>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 41d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
63 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $92.31Resistance $116.50

Price Targets

$90
$94
$114
A.Upside+0.3%
A.R:R0.0:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)4.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (0.3% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=+2: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT
! asymmetry at 0.0 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-23 (41d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is DECK stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $113.83, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: Vietnam and Indonesia manufacturing; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 63, MACD bullish. Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $113.83 has reached target $114.17. No upside to wait for. Target $114.17 (+0.3%), stop $89.54 (−27.1%), A.R:R 0.0:1. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the DECK stock price target?

Take-profit target: $114.17 (+21.3% upside). Target $114.17 (+0.3%), stop $89.54 (−27.1%), A.R:R 0.0:1. Stop-loss: $89.54.

What are the risks of investing in DECK?

Concentration risk — Geographic: Vietnam and Indonesia manufacturing; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Weak growth.

Is DECK overvalued or undervalued?

Deckers Outdoor Corporation trades at a P/E of 16.3 (forward 13.8). TrendMatrix value score: 6.6/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about DECK?

33 analysts cover DECK with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $127.

What does Deckers Outdoor Corporation do?Deckers Outdoor Corporation designs and distributes footwear, apparel, and accessories under three brands: HOKA...

Deckers Outdoor Corporation designs and distributes footwear, apparel, and accessories under three brands: HOKA (performance running), UGG (premium casual), and Teva (outdoor). The company sells through wholesale retailers and a Direct-to-Consumer channel comprising 203 Company-owned stores in 54 countries, employing approximately 6,000 people. All production is outsourced to independent manufacturers, predominantly in Vietnam and Indonesia, with less than 5% from China or any other single country.

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