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ONONOn Holding AGSell6.2·$31.94
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

On Holding's premium footwear brand demonstrates strong earnings momentum and wide-moat business quality, but near-term technical weakness from a confirmed downtrend warrants caution before adding new positions.

Thesis pillars

  • Moat Quality Profile→Stable
  • Earnings Beat Streak→Stable
  • Analyst Upside Sentiment↓Deteriorating
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

On Holding AG (ONON) Stock Analysis

Temporary headwind edge

SellQualityModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Footwear & Accessories

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $31.94 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.

On Holding AG, together with its subsidiaries, develops and distributes performance sports products under the On brand in Switzerland, the rest of Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the United States, the rest of the Americas, and the Asia-Pacific. The company offers athletic... Read more

$31.94+25.3% A.UpsideScore 6.2/10#3 of 9 Footwear & Accessories
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield2.70%
Stop $29.70Analyst target $40.02(−8% haircut)A.R:R 3.4:1
Analyst consensus$43.50+36.2%30 analysts
$40.02Analyst target
$31.94price
$43.50mean
$20
$72

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $31.94 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-10-29
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Nov 10, 202611d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.7 in RISK_OFF)
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
High-quality business
Risks
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5
Negative momentum
Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.0%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)21.3
P/E (Fwd)15.5
Mkt Cap$10.7B
EV/EBITDA20.4
Profit Mgn12.3%
ROE24.0%
Rev Growth13.5%
Beta2.08
DividendNone
Rating analysts38

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatWideCompounder✓

Options Flow

P/C0.87neutral
IV66%elevated
Max Pain$17-46.8% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

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No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.

Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
3.0
Rsi
3.5
Volume
4.7
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.0%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 2.4<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 11d<=14d (soft)A.R:R 3.4 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
36 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $29.56Resistance $36.08

Price Targets

$30
$40
A.Upside+25.3%
A.R:R3.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 2.4 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-10 (11d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ONON stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $31.94 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $29.70. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ONON stock price target?

Analyst target: $40.02 (+25.3% upside). Prior stop was $29.70. Stop-loss: $29.70.

What are the risks of investing in ONON?

Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.0%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is ONON overvalued or undervalued?

On Holding AG trades at a P/E of 21.3 (forward 15.5). TrendMatrix value score: 7.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ONON?

38 analysts cover ONON with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $43.

What does On Holding AG do?On Holding AG, together with its subsidiaries, develops and distributes performance sports products under the On brand...

On Holding AG, together with its subsidiaries, develops and distributes performance sports products under the On brand in Switzerland, the rest of Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the United States, the rest of the Americas, and the Asia-Pacific. The company offers athletic footwear, apparel, and accessories for performance running, performance outdoor, performance all day, performance training, performance tennis, and young movers. It sells its products to athletes and active customers through wholesale and direct-to-consumer channels; run specialty, general sporting goods, outdoor, luxury, street fashion, and lifestyle retailers; owned retail stores; and e-commerce platforms. On Holding AG was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Zurich, Switzerland.

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