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SHOOSteven Madden, Ltd.Sell5.8·$45.89+3.75%
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Steven Madden, Ltd. (SHOO) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Footwear & Accessories

Sell if holding. At $45.89, A.R:R is negative (-0.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: China manufacturing (56.1%); Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (66.2%).

Steven Madden designs and sources footwear, handbags, and apparel under Steve Madden, Kurt Geiger, Dolce Vita, Betsey Johnson, Carvela, and other brands globally. Wholesale (66.1% of 2025 revenue) and DTC (33.4%) channels; U.S. accounted for ~66.2% of global sales, with no... Read more

$45.89-0.4% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#4 of 7 Footwear & Accessories
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield-0.44%
IncomeYield1.90%(5y avg 2.15%)Payout79.25%
Stop $42.73Target $45.72(resistance)A.R:R -0.9:1
Analyst target$45.78-0.2%9 analysts
$45.72our TP
$45.89price
$45.78mean
$31
$52

Sell if holding. At $45.89, A.R:R is negative (-0.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: China manufacturing (56.1%); Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (66.2%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 48d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-11
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 29, 202648d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong growth profile
Positive momentum
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: China manufacturing (56.1%)
Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (66.2%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)41.7
P/E (Fwd)16.5
Mkt Cap$3.2B
EV/EBITDA14.6
Profit Mgn2.9%
ROE8.6%
Rev Growth18.0%
Beta1.16
Dividend1.90%
Rating analysts15

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.01bullish
IV73%elevated
Max Pain$18-61.9% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHSupplierChina manufacturing56%
    10-K Item 1A: 'In 2025, 56.1% of our total purchases were manufactured in China'
  • MEDIUMSupplierCambodia manufacturing25%
    10-K Item 1A: '24.6% in Cambodia'
  • HIGHGeographicUnited States66%
    10-K Item 1A: 'The United States accounted for approximately 66.2% of our global sales in fiscal year 2025'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R -0.9=NEGATIVEMomentum 7.4>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 48d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
75 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $37.45Resistance $46.65

Price Targets

$43
$46
A.Upside-0.4%
A.R:R-0.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-13.2% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=-1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (48d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SHOO stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $45.89, A.R:R is negative (-0.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: China manufacturing (56.1%); Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (66.2%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $42.73. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SHOO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $45.72 (-0.4% upside). Prior stop was $42.73. Stop-loss: $42.73.

What are the risks of investing in SHOO?

Concentration risk — Supplier: China manufacturing (56.1%); Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (66.2%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is SHOO overvalued or undervalued?

Steven Madden, Ltd. trades at a P/E of 41.7 (forward 16.5). TrendMatrix value score: 6.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SHOO?

15 analysts cover SHOO with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $46.

What does Steven Madden, Ltd. do?Steven Madden designs and sources footwear, handbags, and apparel under Steve Madden, Kurt Geiger, Dolce Vita, Betsey...

Steven Madden designs and sources footwear, handbags, and apparel under Steve Madden, Kurt Geiger, Dolce Vita, Betsey Johnson, Carvela, and other brands globally. Wholesale (66.1% of 2025 revenue) and DTC (33.4%) channels; U.S. accounted for ~66.2% of global sales, with no single customer exceeding 10% of net revenue.

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