Value
7.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.9 |
| P/S | 9.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.3 |
| PEG | 7.3 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.9x
- ▸PEG: 0.95
- ▸Attractively valued
DECK · Why this verdict
Why Deckers Outdoor (DECK) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Deckers is a high-quality franchise with a wide economic moat, 41% return on equity, and four consecutive earnings beats averaging nearly 22% above consensus—but the stock has reached the analyst price target, leaving only about 1.5% headroom, and growth has softened, making this a hold for existing owners rather than a compelling entry for new buyers.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company has beaten consensus earnings estimates in each of the past four quarters by an average of nearly 22 percentage points, with the most recent quarter coming in 15% above expectations, demonstrating consistent discipline in translating revenue into profits that exceed sell-side projections. Earnings | EPS beats continue in at least 3 of the next 4 reported quarters, with the average positive surprise remaining above 10%. | →Stable |
| CounterA pattern of consistently beating lowered expectations can reflect conservative guidance discipline rather than accelerating fundamentals; if sell-side analysts eventually anchor estimates more aggressively to past beats, the margin of outperformance will compress even if the underlying business is unchanged. | ||
The business earns a 41% return on equity, maintains operating margins near 19%, scores an 8 out of 9 on the Piotroski financial health screen, and is characterized as having a wide economic moat—attributes that support a premium valuation and indicate durable competitive positioning. Quality breakdown | Return on equity stays above 30% and operating margins remain above 15% for the next two annual reporting periods. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA return on equity above 40% may be partly flattered by a buyback-reduced equity base; and even a genuinely wide moat does not protect against a consumer trade-down or a shift in footwear preferences that erodes the brand premium, which would compress margins faster than asset-light economics can absorb. | ||
Manufacturing is concentrated in Vietnam and Indonesia, exposing the company to country-specific disruptions—trade policy changes, labor actions, or logistics shocks—that could impair production capacity faster than the supply chain could be diversified. Bear case | No supply disruption materially reduces gross margin below 45% or causes a revenue shortfall exceeding 5% versus consensus in any reported quarter. | ↑Improving |
| CounterVietnam and Indonesia concentration is a known, disclosed risk that management has lived with for years; if no disruption has materialized across multiple geopolitical cycles, the practical probability of a sudden material impact may be lower than the disclosure language implies. | ||
The stock is just below the analyst consensus price target with roughly 1.5% headroom to that level, meaning near-term upside has already been captured and any further price appreciation requires a fundamental improvement that drives target upgrades. Bear case | Analyst consensus price target rises more than 10% above current price within 12 months, reflecting an upgrade cycle that reopens meaningful upside. | ↑Improving |
| CounterAnalyst targets lag price in high-quality compounders—if the next earnings cycle surprises to the upside, consensus estimates and targets reset materially higher within weeks, making the current near-target positioning a temporary rather than structural ceiling. | ||
The company has beaten consensus earnings estimates in each of the past four quarters by an average of nearly 22 percentage points, with the most recent quarter coming in 15% above expectations, demonstrating consistent discipline in translating revenue into profits that exceed sell-side projections.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS beats continue in at least 3 of the next 4 reported quarters, with the average positive surprise remaining above 10%.
CounterA pattern of consistently beating lowered expectations can reflect conservative guidance discipline rather than accelerating fundamentals; if sell-side analysts eventually anchor estimates more aggressively to past beats, the margin of outperformance will compress even if the underlying business is unchanged.
The business earns a 41% return on equity, maintains operating margins near 19%, scores an 8 out of 9 on the Piotroski financial health screen, and is characterized as having a wide economic moat—attributes that support a premium valuation and indicate durable competitive positioning.
↑ImprovingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Return on equity stays above 30% and operating margins remain above 15% for the next two annual reporting periods.
CounterA return on equity above 40% may be partly flattered by a buyback-reduced equity base; and even a genuinely wide moat does not protect against a consumer trade-down or a shift in footwear preferences that erodes the brand premium, which would compress margins faster than asset-light economics can absorb.
Manufacturing is concentrated in Vietnam and Indonesia, exposing the company to country-specific disruptions—trade policy changes, labor actions, or logistics shocks—that could impair production capacity faster than the supply chain could be diversified.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- No supply disruption materially reduces gross margin below 45% or causes a revenue shortfall exceeding 5% versus consensus in any reported quarter.
CounterVietnam and Indonesia concentration is a known, disclosed risk that management has lived with for years; if no disruption has materialized across multiple geopolitical cycles, the practical probability of a sudden material impact may be lower than the disclosure language implies.
The stock is just below the analyst consensus price target with roughly 1.5% headroom to that level, meaning near-term upside has already been captured and any further price appreciation requires a fundamental improvement that drives target upgrades.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- Analyst consensus price target rises more than 10% above current price within 12 months, reflecting an upgrade cycle that reopens meaningful upside.
CounterAnalyst targets lag price in high-quality compounders—if the next earnings cycle surprises to the upside, consensus estimates and targets reset materially higher within weeks, making the current near-target positioning a temporary rather than structural ceiling.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
9.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 10.0 |
| Gross margin | 7.8 |
| Op margin | 9.3 |
| Net margin | 9.5 |
| Current ratio | 9.2 |
| Moat | 7.9 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 44%
- ▸Strong margins: 19%
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
5.4/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.4 |
| EPS growth | 7.4 |
Momentum
1.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 3.2 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.9%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 4.7 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 7.7 |
Insider
4.0/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 4.1 |
| notable moves | 3.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
6.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.9 |
| quality rank | 8.9 |
| growth rank | 3.3 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.0 |
| support resistance | 7.3 |
| 52w position | 3.2 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.5 |
| days to cover | 7.5 |
| volatility | 3.2 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 5.6 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 6.5 |
| debt equity | 9.1 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸Above max pain $60
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
V9 Gate blocked: Momentum 1.9 < 4.5 minimum; R/R 1.1x at spot < 1.5 minimum; 50MA < 200MA with weak momentum (1.9) - hard block. Wait for improvement.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_A_VALUE_MOS33->V9:WEAK_MOMENTUM|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:91d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- SECTOR_CONCENTRATION_CAP:sector=Consumer Cyclical:0/10
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:1.9<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:1.1<1.5@spot
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
1.05
Upside
+7.8%
Downside
7.4%
Sizing output
STARTER
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeTemporary headwind — High quality (9.2) with weak momentum (1.9)
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The STRONG_BUY_WAIT verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 1.9<4.5 outcome against Quality at 9.2 and asymmetric R:R of 1.05.
The strongest dimensions are Quality at 9.2, Value at 7.9, and Catalyst at 7.6; the weakest are Momentum at 1.9, Insider at 4.0, and Growth at 5.4. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.05 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Sustained Earnings Execution
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2High Quality Wide Moat Franchise
Trip ifOperating margin compresses below 14% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Price At Analyst Target Limited Upside
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target rises more than 15% above current price, confirming a new upside cycle has opened.
- P4Geographic Supply Chain Concentration
Trip ifRevenue falls more than 5% below consensus in any single quarter due to a supply disruption.