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CROXCrocs, Inc.Sell5.1·$127.77+5.90%
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Crocs, Inc. (CROX) Stock Analysis

SellHigh Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Footwear & Accessories

Sell if holding. At $127.77, A.R:R is negative (-1.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: largest Crocs Brand manufacturer (Vietnam) (45.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: Vietnam (Crocs Brand production) (45.0%).

Crocs, Inc. designs and sells casual footwear under two segments—the Crocs Brand (439 company-operated stores globally) and the HEYDUDE Brand (75 stores, primarily U.S.)—distributed via wholesale (47.9% of 2025 revenue) and direct-to-consumer channels (52.1%). Digital sales... Read more

$127.77-0.7% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#6 of 7 Footwear & Accessories
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield7.46%
Stop $118.83Target $126.86(resistance)A.R:R -1.5:1
Analyst target$114.33-10.5%12 analysts
$126.86our TP
$127.77price
$114.33mean
$86
$145

Sell if holding. At $127.77, A.R:R is negative (-1.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: largest Crocs Brand manufacturer (Vietnam) (45.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: Vietnam (Crocs Brand production) (45.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.1/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.70, earnings proximity 58d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Crocs, Inc.

About Crocs, Inc.

Crocs, Inc. generated 52.1% of 2025 consolidated revenues through its direct-to-consumer channel — spanning 23 e-commerce sites, 514 company-operated stores, and third-party marketplaces — and 47.9% through wholesale. Digital sales reached 37.8% of consolidated revenues in 2025. International Crocs Brand sales represented 48.6% of Crocs Brand revenues, and the company employed more than 8,010 people globally at December 31, 2025.

Crocs sells at accessible price points across wholesale and DTC, with its proprietary Croslite closed-cell resin forming the material base for most Crocs Brand footwear. The HEYDUDE Brand focuses on loafer silhouettes primarily in the U.S. market, where channel inventory corrections have required extended stabilization efforts. All production is outsourced to third-party manufacturers concentrated in Vietnam — approximately 45% of Crocs Brand output and 44% of HEYDUDE Brand output in 2025 — with the largest Crocs Brand manufacturer producing 45% of Crocs Brand total production and the second-largest producing 28%. Named competitors include NIKE, adidas AG, Deckers Outdoor Corporation, and Birkenstock Holding plc. Distributor agreements typically run one to five years with renegotiation rights if minimum requirements are not met, creating periodic inventory and margin exposure.

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The HEYDUDE Brand reported an impairment triggering event in Q2 fiscal 2025 when Crocs revised its internal forecast downward, citing an extended stabilization timeline, weak U.S. consumer sentiment, and what the 10-K characterizes as a disproportionate impact of tariffs on HEYDUDE products specifically — distinct from the Crocs Brand's tariff exposure. With HEYDUDE production having shifted to approximately 44% Vietnam-sourced in 2025 from a primarily China-based base prior to that year, any sustained tariff escalation targeting Vietnam could weigh on margins across both segments simultaneously.

See also: Consumer Cyclical · Footwear & Accessories

From Crocs, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-10
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 6, 202658d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Positive momentum
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: largest Crocs Brand manufacturer (Vietnam) (45.0%)
Concentration risk — Geographic: Vietnam (Crocs Brand production) (45.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)8.3
Mkt Cap$6.0B
EV/EBITDA8.0
Profit Mgn-2.6%
ROE-6.1%
Rev Growth-1.7%
Beta1.56
DividendNone
Rating analysts23

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C1.45bearish
IV67%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHSupplierlargest Crocs Brand manufacturer (Vietnam)45%
    10-K Item 1: 'Our largest third-party manufacturer for the Crocs Brand, with the majority of operations in Vietnam, produced approximately 45%, 50%, and 47% of our production during the years ended December 31, 2025, 2024, and 2023, respectively'
  • MEDIUMSuppliersecond largest Crocs Brand manufacturer (Vietnam/China)28%
    10-K Item 1: 'our second largest third-party manufacturer for the Crocs Brand, primarily operating in both Vietnam and China, produced approximately 28%, 25%, and 26% of our production'
  • HIGHGeographicVietnam (Crocs Brand production)45%
    10-K Item 1: 'approximately 45%, 51%, and 56%, respectively, of our Crocs Brand production was in Vietnam'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -1.7% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
2.1
Declining revenue: -2%
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.0
Growth Rank
0.0
Value Rank
4.3
GatesA.R:R -1.5=NEGATIVEMomentum 7.7>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.70EARNINGS PROXIMITY 58d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
88 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $94.80Resistance $129.45

Price Targets

$119
$127
A.Upside-0.7%
A.R:R-1.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-22.1% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (58d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CROX stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $127.77, A.R:R is negative (-1.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: largest Crocs Brand manufacturer (Vietnam) (45.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: Vietnam (Crocs Brand production) (45.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $118.83. Score 5.1/10, high confidence.

What is the CROX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $126.86 (-0.7% upside). Prior stop was $118.83. Stop-loss: $118.83.

What are the risks of investing in CROX?

Concentration risk — Supplier: largest Crocs Brand manufacturer (Vietnam) (45.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: Vietnam (Crocs Brand production) (45.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is CROX overvalued or undervalued?

Crocs, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 8.3). TrendMatrix value score: 7.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about CROX?

23 analysts cover CROX with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $114.

What does Crocs, Inc. do?Crocs, Inc. designs and sells casual footwear under two segments—the Crocs Brand (439 company-operated stores globally)...

Crocs, Inc. designs and sells casual footwear under two segments—the Crocs Brand (439 company-operated stores globally) and the HEYDUDE Brand (75 stores, primarily U.S.)—distributed via wholesale (47.9% of 2025 revenue) and direct-to-consumer channels (52.1%). Digital sales represented 37.8% of 2025 consolidated revenues. Croslite material technology and global brand recognition differentiate product offerings.

Related stocks: WWW (Wolverine World Wide, Inc.) · DECK (Deckers Outdoor Corporation) · SHOO (Steven Madden, Ltd.) · ONON (On Holding AG) · BIRK (Birkenstock Holding plc)
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