Four consecutive earnings beats averaging 31.5% above estimates, a PEG ratio of 0.09, and free cash flow conversion of 301% of net income create a compelling quality-value combination — but the stock sits just 1.1% below the analyst price target with unfavorable risk/reward, making the near-term entry unattractive despite the underlying fundamentals.
Thesis pillars
- Deep Value Low Peg Multiple↑Improving
- Banking Geographic Concentration↓Deteriorating
- Perfect Earnings Beat Consistency↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Diebold Nixdorf Incorporated (DBD) Stock Analysis
Technology · Software - Application
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $75.17: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.8/10. Specifically: High short interest: 16%; Elevated put/call ratio: 2.58; Below-average business quality.
Diebold Nixdorf provides banking and retail technology solutions—including ATMs, cash recyclers, point-of-sale and self-checkout systems, managed services, and cloud software—serving financial institutions and retailers in more than 100 countries. Total net sales reached... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $75.17: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.8/10. Specifically: High short interest: 16%; Elevated put/call ratio: 2.58; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and clean insider activity and earnings proximity 0d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.
About Diebold Nixdorf Incorporated
About Diebold Nixdorf Incorporated
Banking and retail technology drove $3,805.7 million in total net sales for Diebold Nixdorf in 2025, split 73.5% Banking ($2,797.0 million) and 26.5% Retail ($1,008.7 million), with services exceeding 56% of revenues. The company operates in more than 100 countries with approximately 20,000 employees. Nearly two-thirds of the world's top 100 financial institutions rely on the company's solutions.
Diebold Nixdorf earns through two channels: product sales (ATMs, DN Series cash recyclers, teller automation, and retail POS/SCO hardware) and contracted services (maintenance, managed ATM services, implementation, and cash cycle management). Services gross margin was 24.0% in 2025 and product gross margin was 26.9%, yielding a total gross margin of 25.3%. The Banking segment—centered on DN Series ATMs, cash recyclers, and DN Vynamic cloud software—competes against NCR Atleos, Hyosung TNS, and Hitachi Channel Solutions. The Retail segment competes with NCR Voyix, Toshiba Corporation, and Fujitsu Ltd. for POS and SCO hardware. Manufacturing concentrates in facilities in North Canton, Ohio; Paderborn, Germany; and Manaus, Brazil, totaling approximately 2,700,000 square feet, with certain products also made in China and India. Product backlog was $733.1 million at December 31, 2025, down from $790.1 million at year-end 2024.
Show full overview
With approximately 76% of 2025 revenue from international operations, Diebold Nixdorf is exposed to currency fluctuations across EMEA (primarily the euro), Canada, Mexico, Indonesia, and Brazil, and may face additional tariffs on products manufactured in China and India depending on evolving U.S. trade policy. The 10-K also discloses that the company's supply chain includes a joint venture partner whose parent is on the Export Administration Regulations Entity List; if the joint venture partner itself were added to the list, the company's ability to ship U.S.-origin software to that entity could be impaired. On the demand side, the continued growth of digital and contactless payment alternatives poses a long-term structural risk to ATM volumes, a trend the 10-K explicitly identifies as threatening cash usage.
See also: Technology · Software - Application
From Diebold Nixdorf Incorporated's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-30Recent Developments — Diebold Nixdorf Incorporated
Latest news
- NEWS Why Diebold Nixdorf (DBD) Stock Is Falling Today - FinancialContent — FinancialContent negative
- NEWS Diebold Nixdorf Drops 9.1% Amid Sector-Wide Selling - AlphaStreet — AlphaStreet negative
- NEWS Diebold Nixdorf (NYSE:DBD) Reports Q2 CY2026 In Line With Expectations - StockStory — StockStory neutral
- NEWS Diebold Nixdorf (NYSE:DBD) Reports Q2 CY2026 In Line With Expectations - TradingView — TradingView positive
- NEWS Did Diebold Nixdorf Inc (DBD) Exceed Expectations in Q2 Earnings - GuruFocus — GuruFocus positive
Generated 2026-07-30T22:23:47Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHGeographicinternational operations76%10-K Item 1A: 'In 2025, revenue from international operations amounted to approximately 76% of total revenue'
- HIGHProductBanking segment74%10-K Item 1: 'Banking net sales represented 73.5% and 73.7% of total net sales for the years ended December 31, 2025 and 2024, respectively.'
- HIGHSuppliersingle source of supply10-K Item 1A: 'In some instances, the Company depends upon a single source of supply. Any service disruption from one of these suppliers could have a material adverse effect'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Volatile — 5.0% daily ATR makes tight stops impractical. Position-size conservatively.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $75.17: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.8/10. Specifically: High short interest: 16%; Elevated put/call ratio: 2.58; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $71.30. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $83.58 (+11.2% upside). Prior stop was $71.30. Stop-loss: $71.30.
Concentration risk — Geographic: international operations (76.0%); Concentration risk — Product: Banking segment (73.5%); Risk below floor (2.8 < 3.0).
Diebold Nixdorf Incorporated trades at a P/E of 31.3 (forward 13.4). TrendMatrix value score: 7.7/10. Verdict: Sell.
7 analysts cover DBD with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $98.
What does Diebold Nixdorf Incorporated do?Diebold Nixdorf provides banking and retail technology solutions—including ATMs, cash recyclers, point-of-sale and...
Diebold Nixdorf provides banking and retail technology solutions—including ATMs, cash recyclers, point-of-sale and self-checkout systems, managed services, and cloud software—serving financial institutions and retailers in more than 100 countries. Total net sales reached $3,805.7 million in 2025, with Banking at 73.5% of revenues and services comprising more than 56% of total revenues.