Four consecutive earnings beats averaging 31.5% above estimates, a PEG ratio of 0.09, and free cash flow conversion of 301% of net income create a compelling quality-value combination — but the stock sits just 1.1% below the analyst price target with unfavorable risk/reward, making the near-term entry unattractive despite the underlying fundamentals.
Thesis pillars
- Deep Value Low Peg Multiple↑Improving
- Banking Geographic Concentration→Stable
- Perfect Earnings Beat Consistency↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 12, 2026
Diebold Nixdorf Incorporated (DBD) Stock Analysis
Falling Knife setup · Inst Constrain edge
Technology · Software - Application
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $58.07 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Geographic: international operations (76.0%); Concentration risk — Product: Banking segment (73.5%).
Diebold Nixdorf provides banking and retail technology solutions—including ATMs, cash recyclers, point-of-sale and self-checkout systems, managed services, and cloud software—serving financial institutions and retailers in more than 100 countries. Total net sales reached... Read more
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $58.07 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Geographic: international operations (76.0%); Concentration risk — Product: Banking segment (73.5%). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 38, MACD bearish. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.
About Diebold Nixdorf Incorporated
About Diebold Nixdorf Incorporated
Banking and retail technology drove $3,805.7 million in total net sales for Diebold Nixdorf in 2025, split 73.5% Banking ($2,797.0 million) and 26.5% Retail ($1,008.7 million), with services exceeding 56% of revenues. The company operates in more than 100 countries with approximately 20,000 employees. Nearly two-thirds of the world's top 100 financial institutions rely on the company's solutions.
Diebold Nixdorf earns through two channels: product sales (ATMs, DN Series cash recyclers, teller automation, and retail POS/SCO hardware) and contracted services (maintenance, managed ATM services, implementation, and cash cycle management). Services gross margin was 24.0% in 2025 and product gross margin was 26.9%, yielding a total gross margin of 25.3%. The Banking segment—centered on DN Series ATMs, cash recyclers, and DN Vynamic cloud software—competes against NCR Atleos, Hyosung TNS, and Hitachi Channel Solutions. The Retail segment competes with NCR Voyix, Toshiba Corporation, and Fujitsu Ltd. for POS and SCO hardware. Manufacturing concentrates in facilities in North Canton, Ohio; Paderborn, Germany; and Manaus, Brazil, totaling approximately 2,700,000 square feet, with certain products also made in China and India. Product backlog was $733.1 million at December 31, 2025, down from $790.1 million at year-end 2024.
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With approximately 76% of 2025 revenue from international operations, Diebold Nixdorf is exposed to currency fluctuations across EMEA (primarily the euro), Canada, Mexico, Indonesia, and Brazil, and may face additional tariffs on products manufactured in China and India depending on evolving U.S. trade policy. The 10-K also discloses that the company's supply chain includes a joint venture partner whose parent is on the Export Administration Regulations Entity List; if the joint venture partner itself were added to the list, the company's ability to ship U.S.-origin software to that entity could be impaired. On the demand side, the continued growth of digital and contactless payment alternatives poses a long-term structural risk to ATM volumes, a trend the 10-K explicitly identifies as threatening cash usage.
See also: Technology · Software - Application
From Diebold Nixdorf Incorporated's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — Diebold Nixdorf Incorporated
Latest news
- NEWS Why Diebold Nixdorf (DBD) Stock Is Falling Today - FinancialContent — FinancialContent negative
- NEWS Diebold Nixdorf Drops 9.1% Amid Sector-Wide Selling - AlphaStreet — AlphaStreet negative
- NEWS Diebold Nixdorf (NYSE:DBD) Reports Q2 CY2026 In Line With Expectations - StockStory — StockStory neutral
- NEWS Diebold Nixdorf (NYSE:DBD) Reports Q2 CY2026 In Line With Expectations - TradingView — TradingView positive
- NEWS Did Diebold Nixdorf Inc (DBD) Exceed Expectations in Q2 Earnings - GuruFocus — GuruFocus positive
Generated 2026-10-29T11:08:51Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHGeographicinternational operations76%10-K Item 1A: 'In 2025, revenue from international operations amounted to approximately 76% of total revenue'
- HIGHProductBanking segment74%10-K Item 1: 'Banking net sales represented 73.5% and 73.7% of total net sales for the years ended December 31, 2025 and 2024, respectively.'
- HIGHSuppliersingle source of supply10-K Item 1A: 'In some instances, the Company depends upon a single source of supply. Any service disruption from one of these suppliers could have a material adverse effect'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $58.07 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Geographic: international operations (76.0%); Concentration risk — Product: Banking segment (73.5%). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 38, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $54.01. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $83.58 (+43.9% upside). Prior stop was $54.01. Stop-loss: $54.01.
Concentration risk — Geographic: international operations (76.0%); Concentration risk — Product: Banking segment (73.5%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3).
Diebold Nixdorf Incorporated trades at a P/E of 27.5 (forward 8.3). TrendMatrix value score: 8.7/10. Verdict: Sell.
7 analysts cover DBD with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $98.
What does Diebold Nixdorf Incorporated do?Diebold Nixdorf provides banking and retail technology solutions—including ATMs, cash recyclers, point-of-sale and...
Diebold Nixdorf provides banking and retail technology solutions—including ATMs, cash recyclers, point-of-sale and self-checkout systems, managed services, and cloud software—serving financial institutions and retailers in more than 100 countries. Total net sales reached $3,805.7 million in 2025, with Banking at 73.5% of revenues and services comprising more than 56% of total revenues.