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Carvana Co. (CVNA) Stock Analysis

Momentum Cont setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Auto & Truck Dealerships

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $391.19, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: automotive finance receivables; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Carvana is an e-commerce platform for buying and selling used cars spanning 316 metropolitan areas and serving 80%+ of US population. Revenue from vehicle sales, integrated financing, and vehicle service contracts; sold 2.8M retail vehicles generating $84.1B total revenue since... Read more

$391.19+5.1% A.UpsideScore 5.9/10#2 of 16 Auto & Truck Dealerships
Stop $363.80Target $411.18(resistance)A.R:R -0.1:1
Analyst target$425.77+8.8%22 analysts
$411.18our TP
$391.19price
$425.77mean
$300
$519

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $391.19, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: automotive finance receivables; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 63, MACD bullish. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.70, news boost analyst cluster(3), earnings proximity 89d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Positive news sentiment (+0.63)
Strong growth profile
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: automotive finance receivables
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)45.9
P/E (Fwd)37.3
Mkt Cap$87.5B
EV/EBITDA27.9
Profit Mgn6.9%
ROE67.9%
Rev Growth58.0%
Beta3.61
DividendNone
Rating analysts32

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C1.08bearish
IV68%elevated
Max Pain$220-43.8% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductautomotive finance receivables
    10-K Item 1A: 'our dependence on the sale of automotive finance receivables for a substantial portion of our gross profit'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 ceiling hit

GatesA.R:R -0.1=NEGATIVEMomentum 5.0<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.0>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.70NEWS BOOST ANALYST CLUSTER(3)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 89d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMomentum ContSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
63 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $304.09Resistance $419.57

Price Targets

$364
$411
A.Upside+5.1%
A.R:R-0.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-2.0% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=+2: SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (89d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CVNA stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $391.19, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: automotive finance receivables; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 63, MACD bullish. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Target $411.18 (+5.1%), stop $363.80 (−7.5%), A.R:R -0.1:1. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CVNA stock price target?

Take-profit target: $411.18 (+5.1% upside). Target $411.18 (+5.1%), stop $363.80 (−7.5%), A.R:R -0.1:1. Stop-loss: $363.80.

What are the risks of investing in CVNA?

Concentration risk — Product: automotive finance receivables; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5.

Is CVNA overvalued or undervalued?

Carvana Co. trades at a P/E of 45.9 (forward 37.3). TrendMatrix value score: 4.7/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about CVNA?

32 analysts cover CVNA with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $426.

What does Carvana Co. do?Carvana is an e-commerce platform for buying and selling used cars spanning 316 metropolitan areas and serving 80%+ of...

Carvana is an e-commerce platform for buying and selling used cars spanning 316 metropolitan areas and serving 80%+ of US population. Revenue from vehicle sales, integrated financing, and vehicle service contracts; sold 2.8M retail vehicles generating $84.1B total revenue since inception in 2012.

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