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KMXCarMax IncSell4.1·$51.75+0.36%
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CarMax Inc (KMX) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Auto & Truck Dealerships

Earnings in 5 days (2026-06-17). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $51.75: Quality below floor (2.2 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.1/10. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Below-average business quality.

CarMax is the nation's largest retailer of used vehicles, operating 256 stores in 110 US markets as of Feb 28, 2026, and sold 780,684 used vehicles at retail in fiscal 2026. Revenue comes from used vehicle sales, wholesale auctions, finance income through its CAF segment... Read more

$51.75-0.5% A.UpsideScore 4.1/10#16 of 16 Auto & Truck Dealerships
QualityF-score5 / 9FCF yield-1.21%
Stop $47.67Target $51.02(resistance)A.R:R -1.9:1
Analyst target$42.31-18.2%13 analysts
$51.02our TP
$51.75price
$42.31mean
$19
$99

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $51.75: Quality below floor (2.2 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.1/10. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 90. Score 4.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 5d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-13

Recent Developments — CarMax Inc

Generated 2026-06-15T18:11:46Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jun 17, 20265d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-28.2% upside)
Quality below floor (2.2 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)30.7
P/E (Fwd)18.5
Mkt Cap$7.3B
EV/EBITDA25.0
Profit Mgn0.9%
ROE4.1%
Rev Growth-1.2%
Beta1.20
DividendNone
Rating analysts28

Quality Signals

Piotroski F5/9

Options Flow

P/C0.05bullish
IV132%elevated

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-12Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Board appointed Keith Barr as President and CEO, effective March 16, 2026. Mr. Barr was CEO of InterContinental Hotels Group 2017–2023. Named successor; annual base salary $1,250,000 with 175% target bonus.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-03-02Item 5.02LOW
    Company entered amended and restated severance agreements with executive officers including Enrique Mayor-Mora, Charles Joseph Wilson, and Shamim Mohammad. No officer departure; compensatory arrangement update.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-04-09Item 5.02LOW
    Board nominated William C. Cobb (CEO of Frontdoor, former H&R Block CEO) and James Kessler (CEO of RB Global) as new board director nominees for 2026 Annual Meeting. Routine board appointment.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

5 floor-breakers

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
0.5
Bollinger
1.1
52w Position
4.2

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Net Margin
0.4
Operating Margin
0.7
Roa
1.1
Roe
1.4
Moat
3.1
Piotroski F
5.6
Current Ratio
7.6
Earnings quality RED FLAG: -36% FCF/NINo competitive moatQuality concerns

Revenue shrinking — -1.2% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
2.2
Declining revenue: -1%
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.9
Growth Rank
2.5
Value Rank
4.1

Negative sentiment — recent news tone and/or analyst downgrades drag the composite below neutral.static

Price Target
2.6
Llm Sentiment
3.5
Analyst Rating
5.0
Below analyst target
GatesA.R:R -1.9=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 5d<=7dDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 6.9>=5.5Insider activity: OKSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
90 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $35.17Resistance $52.06

Price Targets

$48
$51
A.Upside-1.4%
A.R:R-1.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-28.2% upside)
! Quality below floor (2.2 < 4.0)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-06-17 (5d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is KMX stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $51.75: Quality below floor (2.2 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.1/10. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 90. Prior stop was $47.67. Score 4.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the KMX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $51.02 (-0.5% upside). Prior stop was $47.67. Stop-loss: $47.67.

What are the risks of investing in KMX?

Target reached (-28.2% upside); Quality below floor (2.2 < 4.0).

Is KMX overvalued or undervalued?

CarMax Inc trades at a P/E of 30.7 (forward 18.5). TrendMatrix value score: 5.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about KMX?

28 analysts cover KMX with a consensus score of 2.8/5. Average price target: $42.

What does CarMax Inc do?CarMax is the nation's largest retailer of used vehicles, operating 256 stores in 110 US markets as of Feb 28, 2026,...

CarMax is the nation's largest retailer of used vehicles, operating 256 stores in 110 US markets as of Feb 28, 2026, and sold 780,684 used vehicles at retail in fiscal 2026. Revenue comes from used vehicle sales, wholesale auctions, finance income through its CAF segment ($16.37B auto loan portfolio), and extended protection plan fees.

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