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PAGPenske Automotive Group, Inc.Sell4.2·$181.50+0.30%
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Penske Automotive Group, Inc. (PAG) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Auto & Truck Dealerships

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $181.50: Quality below floor (2.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.2/10. Specifically: High short interest: 14%; Below-average business quality.

Penske Automotive is a diversified international auto and commercial truck retailer generating $31.8B in 2025 revenues, with retail automotive ($27.5B) split 61% US/Puerto Rico and 39% international. The company also holds a 28.9% stake in Penske Transportation Solutions (fleet... Read more

$181.50-0.1% A.UpsideScore 4.2/10#15 of 16 Auto & Truck Dealerships
QualityF-score2 / 9FCF yield1.85%
IncomeYield3.14%(5y avg 2.17%)Payout38.76%sustainable
Stop $172.90Target $181.23(resistance)A.R:R -0.8:1
Analyst target$184.70+1.8%10 analysts
$181.23our TP
$181.50price
$184.70mean
$160
$206

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $181.50: Quality below floor (2.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.2/10. Specifically: High short interest: 14%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 44d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 29, 202644d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-11.5% upside)
Quality below floor (2.5 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)13.1
P/E (Fwd)12.6
Mkt Cap$11.9B
EV/EBITDA14.9
Profit Mgn2.9%
ROE16.5%
Rev Growth-1.1%
Beta0.88
Dividend3.14%
Rating analysts16

Quality Signals

Piotroski F2/9

Options Flow

P/C0.03bullish
IV49%normal
Max Pain$190+4.7% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -1.1% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Earnings Growth
0.4
Revenue Growth
2.2
Declining revenue: -1%

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.0
Net Margin
1.4
Operating Margin
1.5
Fcf Quality
1.9
Piotroski F
2.2
Roa
2.9
Moat
3.6
Current Ratio
3.9
Roe
5.5
Earnings quality RED FLAG: 24% FCF/NINo competitive moatWeak Piotroski F-Score: 2/9Quality concerns
GatesA.R:R -0.8=NEGATIVEMomentum 4.5<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.5>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 44d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
80 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $152.79Resistance $184.93

Price Targets

$173
$181
A.Upside-0.1%
A.R:R-0.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-11.5% upside)
! Quality below floor (2.5 < 4.0)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (44d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PAG stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $181.50: Quality below floor (2.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.2/10. Specifically: High short interest: 14%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $172.90. Score 4.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the PAG stock price target?

Take-profit target: $181.23 (-0.1% upside). Prior stop was $172.90. Stop-loss: $172.90.

What are the risks of investing in PAG?

Target reached (-11.5% upside); Quality below floor (2.5 < 4.0).

Is PAG overvalued or undervalued?

Penske Automotive Group, Inc. trades at a P/E of 13.1 (forward 12.6). TrendMatrix value score: 6.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about PAG?

16 analysts cover PAG with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $185.

What does Penske Automotive Group, Inc. do?Penske Automotive is a diversified international auto and commercial truck retailer generating $31.8B in 2025 revenues,...

Penske Automotive is a diversified international auto and commercial truck retailer generating $31.8B in 2025 revenues, with retail automotive ($27.5B) split 61% US/Puerto Rico and 39% international. The company also holds a 28.9% stake in Penske Transportation Solutions (fleet leasing/logistics) and distributes commercial vehicles in Australia/New Zealand.

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