Value
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 3.2 |
| P/S | 8.1 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 3.8 |
| PEG | 3.9 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 30.9x
- ▸PEG: 2.59
CVNA · Why this verdict
Why Carvana (CVNA) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 7.6 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 3.6 |
| Net margin | 3.2 |
| Current ratio | 8.9 |
| FCF quality | 1.1 |
| Moat | 6.0 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 60%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 14% FCF/NI
Growth
7.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 4.4 |
- ▸Strong growth: 52% YoY
Momentum
1.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 1.1 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.6%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.0 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 9.2 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 40%
Insider
3.4/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $298,877,314 (0.410% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.7 |
| quality rank | 8.1 |
| growth rank | 9.4 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.6 |
| support resistance | 7.4 |
| 52w position | 3.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
2.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 3.1 |
| days to cover | 4.6 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 0.0 |
| debt equity | 4.6 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.55
- ▸High IV: 85%
Catalyst
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Extreme risk factors.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:2.1>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.50
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:51d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:1.8<4.5
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
2.13
Upside
+25.7%
Downside
12.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRANGE_BOUND — RSI 49 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — Beta 3.45>1.3
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Sentiment at 7.5 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: MOMENTUM:1.8<4.5.
The strongest dimensions are Sentiment at 7.5, Growth at 7.2, and Catalyst at 6.9; the weakest are Momentum at 1.8, Risk (lower is worse) at 2.8, and Insider at 3.4. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.13 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.