AutoNation trades at a forward earnings multiple of 8x with a PEG below 1 and has delivered four consecutive quarters of earnings beats, but business quality falls short of the minimum acceptable threshold and heavy put options activity signals elevated near-term risk.
Thesis pillars
- Consistent Earnings Beat Streak↑Improving
- Weak Quality Floor Breach→Stable
- Brand Concentration Supplier Risk↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 12, 2026
AutoNation, Inc. (AN) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Consumer Cyclical · Auto & Truck Dealerships
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $164.18: Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.5/10 and A.R:R 2.2:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 14%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend.
AutoNation operates 245 automotive retail stores across the United States with 323 new vehicle franchises selling 30 brands, concentrated in major Sunbelt markets. Revenue streams span new and used vehicle sales, parts and service, and finance and insurance products via a... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $164.18: Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.5/10 and A.R:R 2.2:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 14%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 59. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/10 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 0d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — AutoNation, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS AutoNation Scheduled to Present at Gabelli 50th Annual Automotive Symposium — fiscal.ai Oct 21, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Evercore ISI Group Maintains Outperform on AutoNation, Lowers Price Target to $250 — benzinga Oct 12, 2026 positive
- NEWS UBS Maintains Buy on AutoNation, Lowers Price Target to $213 — benzinga Oct 7, 2026 positive
- NEWS JP Morgan Maintains Overweight on AutoNation, Lowers Price Target to $185 — benzinga Oct 6, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Barclays Maintains Overweight on AutoNation, Lowers Price Target to $230 — benzinga Oct 6, 2026 neutral
Generated 2026-10-29T11:14:31Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHSuppliercore brands89%10-K Item 1A: 'The core brands of vehicles that we sell, representing approximately 89% of the new vehicles that we sold in 2025...we are subject to a concentration of risk'
- MEDIUMGeographicFlorida26%10-K Item 1: 'Florida| | 51 | | | 57 | | | 18 | | | 26 |'
- LOWGeographicTexas20%10-K Item 1: 'Texas| | 48 | | | 61 | | | 17 | | | 20 |'
- LOWGeographicCalifornia19%10-K Item 1: 'California| | 41 | | | 54 | | | 2 | | | 19 |'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-29Item 5.02LOWStockholders approved AutoNation's 2026 Employee Equity and Incentive Plan on April 28, 2026; allows grants of RSUs, options, and other awards; up to 1,275,000 new shares plus 883,316 carryover from the 2017 Plan.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $164.18: Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.5/10 and A.R:R 2.2:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 14%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 59. Prior stop was $152.69. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $191.11 (+16.4% upside). Prior stop was $152.69. Stop-loss: $152.69.
Concentration risk — Supplier: core brands (89.0%); Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin -4.1%), High leverage (D/E 13.2).
AutoNation, Inc. trades at a P/E of 7.6 (forward 7.0). TrendMatrix value score: 8.7/10. Verdict: Sell.
22 analysts cover AN with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $220.
What does AutoNation, Inc. do?AutoNation operates 245 automotive retail stores across the United States with 323 new vehicle franchises selling 30...
AutoNation operates 245 automotive retail stores across the United States with 323 new vehicle franchises selling 30 brands, concentrated in major Sunbelt markets. Revenue streams span new and used vehicle sales, parts and service, and finance and insurance products via a captive auto finance company; Florida (26%), Texas (20%), and California (19%) account for roughly 65% of total revenue.