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ANAutoNation, Inc.Sell5.4·$195.00+4.93%
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AutoNation, Inc. (AN) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Auto & Truck Dealerships

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $195.00: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 3.33; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend.

AutoNation is one of the largest automotive retailers in the U.S., operating 245 stores with 323 new vehicle franchises selling 30 brands, concentrated in Sunbelt markets; Florida, Texas, and California together represent 65% of revenue. The company earns from new/used vehicle... Read more

$195.00+8.3% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#7 of 16 Auto & Truck Dealerships
QualityF-score3 / 9FCF yield8.70%
Stop $183.10Target $211.19(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.9:1
Analyst target$242.75+24.5%12 analysts
$211.19our TP
$195.00price
$242.75mean
$300

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $195.00: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 3.33; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 70. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/8 gates (clean insider activity, earnings proximity 52d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-10

Recent Developments — AutoNation, Inc.

Generated 2026-06-15T18:11:46Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Fri, Jul 31, 202652d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: top-8 core brands (89.0%)
Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)10.1
P/E (Fwd)7.7
Mkt Cap$6.2B
EV/EBITDA10.7
Profit Mgn2.5%
ROE29.3%
Rev Growth-2.1%
Beta0.74
DividendNone
Rating analysts23

Quality Signals

Piotroski F3/9

Options Flow

P/C3.33bearish
IV50%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMGeographicFlorida26%
    10-K Item 1: 'Florida| | 51 | | | 57 | | | 18 | | | 26'
  • MEDIUMGeographicTexas20%
    10-K Item 1: 'Texas| | 48 | | | 61 | | | 17 | | | 20'
  • HIGHCustomertop-8 core brands89%
    10-K Item 1A: 'The core brands of new vehicles that we sell, representing approximately 89% of the new vehicles that we sold in 2025, are manufactured by Toyota (including Lexus), Honda, Ford, General Motors, BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Stellantis, and Volkswagen'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-29Item 5.02LOW
    Stockholders approved the AutoNation 2026 Employee Equity and Incentive Plan at the April 28, 2026 Annual Meeting, authorizing up to 1,275,000 plus 883,316 remaining shares from the prior 2017 Plan. No officer departure.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.0
Net Margin
1.2
Operating Margin
1.9
Current Ratio
3.3
Piotroski F
3.3
Roa
3.9
Moat
4.2
Fcf Quality
6.0
Roe
9.8
Excellent ROE: 29%Earnings quality warning: 80% FCF/NINo competitive moatWeak Piotroski F-Score: 3/9
GatesMomentum 4.3<4.5A.R:R 0.9 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentInsider activity: OKEARNINGS PROXIMITY 52d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
70 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $176.62Resistance $200.06

Price Targets

$183
$211
A.Upside+8.3%
A.R:R0.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0)
! momentum at 4.3 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 0.9 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-31 (52d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AN stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $195.00: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 3.33; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 70. Prior stop was $183.10. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AN stock price target?

Take-profit target: $211.19 (+8.3% upside). Prior stop was $183.10. Stop-loss: $183.10.

What are the risks of investing in AN?

Concentration risk — Customer: top-8 core brands (89.0%); Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0).

Is AN overvalued or undervalued?

AutoNation, Inc. trades at a P/E of 10.1 (forward 7.7). TrendMatrix value score: 8.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AN?

23 analysts cover AN with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $243.

What does AutoNation, Inc. do?AutoNation is one of the largest automotive retailers in the U.S., operating 245 stores with 323 new vehicle franchises...

AutoNation is one of the largest automotive retailers in the U.S., operating 245 stores with 323 new vehicle franchises selling 30 brands, concentrated in Sunbelt markets; Florida, Texas, and California together represent 65% of revenue. The company earns from new/used vehicle sales, parts and service, finance and insurance, and its captive auto finance subsidiary AutoNation Finance.

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