Commvault Systems, Inc. (CVLT) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Technology · Software - Application
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $99.47, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Leverage penalty (D/E 122.4): -1.5; Earnings estimates trending DOWN.
Commvault Systems provides cyber resiliency and data protection software (Commvault Cloud) to enterprises globally via SaaS, software licenses, and integrated appliances. Revenue is primarily recurring subscriptions and maintenance; Arrow Electronics, its primary distributor,... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $99.47, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Leverage penalty (D/E 122.4): -1.5; Earnings estimates trending DOWN. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 62. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +1 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.60, news boost analyst cluster(3), earnings proximity 88d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomerArrow35%10-K Item 1A: 'Arrow accounted for approximately 35%, 36% and 37% of our total revenues for the years ended March 31, 2025, 2024 and 2023, respectively'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-13Item 5.02LOWGary Merrill appointed CFO effective April 13, 2026 (was CCO since Aug 2024). Geoff Haydon appointed President of Customer and Field Operations and resigned as director. Both are internal transitions; no outside successor named.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $99.47, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Leverage penalty (D/E 122.4): -1.5; Earnings estimates trending DOWN. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 62. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +1 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Target $119.88 (+20.5%), stop $92.51 (−7.5%), A.R:R 1.4:1. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $119.88 (+20.5% upside). Target $119.88 (+20.5%), stop $92.51 (−7.5%), A.R:R 1.4:1. Stop-loss: $92.51.
Leverage penalty (D/E 122.4): -1.5; Earnings estimates trending DOWN; Below 200-MA, MA slope -9.3%/30d (confirmed downtrend).
Commvault Systems, Inc. trades at a P/E of 62.6 (forward 16.3). TrendMatrix value score: 6.3/10. Verdict: Hold.
21 analysts cover CVLT with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $133.
What does Commvault Systems, Inc. do?Commvault Systems provides cyber resiliency and data protection software (Commvault Cloud) to enterprises globally via...
Commvault Systems provides cyber resiliency and data protection software (Commvault Cloud) to enterprises globally via SaaS, software licenses, and integrated appliances. Revenue is primarily recurring subscriptions and maintenance; Arrow Electronics, its primary distributor, accounted for approximately 35% of total revenues in fiscal 2025.