Cavco Industries has sustained a solid earnings cadence — three of the last four quarters beat consensus — but the stock sits just 1% below its near-term resistance target with a reward-to-risk ratio of roughly 0.14 to 1, leaving the setup deeply unfavorable for new entries. Customer and geographic concentration add structural fragility that makes the current price particularly uncomfortable given the limited upside.
Thesis pillars
- Quality Without Moat→Stable
- Customer Geographic Concentration↓Deteriorating
- Earnings Beat Streak→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed May 22, 2026
Cavco Industries, Inc. (CVCO) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Consumer Cyclical · Residential Construction
Wait for pullback to $515.97. At $532.57 the A.R:R is 0.8:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $515.97 (support + ATR (held)) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Geographic: Texas retail stores; Concentration risk — Customer: independent distributors (77.0%).
Cavco Industries designs and produces factory-built homes distributed through 92 Company-owned retail stores (57 in Texas) and an independent dealer network across 48 states and Canada, operating 33 homebuilding production lines (31 U.S., 2 in Mexico). Revenue comes from... Read more
Wait for pullback to $515.97. At $532.57 the A.R:R is 0.8:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $515.97 (support + ATR (held)) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Geographic: Texas retail stores; Concentration risk — Customer: independent distributors (77.0%). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 45. Earnings today. Wait until post-earnings. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/9 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 0d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — Cavco Industries, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS CVCO|Cavco Industries Inc|Price:588.560|Chg%:+9.510 - TradingKey — TradingKey positive
- NEWS Northland initiates Cavco Industries stock with outperform rating By Investing.com - Investing.com Nigeria — Investing.com Nigeria positive
- NEWS Northland initiates Cavco Industries stock with outperform rating - Investing.com — Investing.com positive
- NEWS Northland initiates Cavco Industries stock with outperform rating By Investing.com - Investing.com India — Investing.com India positive
- NEWS Northland initiates Cavco Industries stock with outperform rating By Investing.com - Investing.com UK — Investing.com UK positive
Generated 2026-10-29T11:14:31Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHGeographicTexas retail stores10-K Item 1A: 'of the 92 Company-owned retail stores, 57 are located in Texas'
- HIGHCustomerindependent distributors77%10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 77% of our sales of factory-built homes were to independent distributors'
- HIGHcounterpartysingle assumed reinsurance entity10-K Item 1A: 'Substantially all of our assumed reinsurance is with one entity'
- MEDIUMloan_portfolioTexas, Florida, Oklahoma, New Mexico loan collateral10-K Item 1: 'Our loan contracts are secured by factory-built homes located in 27 states, with the largest concentrations in Texas, Florida, Oklahoma, and New Mexico'
- MEDIUMGeographicTexas, Arizona, New Mexico and Nevada insurance markets10-K Item 1A: 'Standard Casualty ... primarily serving the Texas, Arizona, New Mexico and Nevada markets'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $515.97. At $532.57 the A.R:R is 0.8:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $515.97 (support + ATR (held)) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Geographic: Texas retail stores; Concentration risk — Customer: independent distributors (77.0%). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 45. Earnings today. Wait until post-earnings. Target $565.25 (+6.1%), stop $489.89 (−8.7%), A.R:R 0.8:1. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $565.25 (+6.1% upside). Target $565.25 (+6.1%), stop $489.89 (−8.7%), A.R:R 0.8:1. Stop-loss: $489.89.
Concentration risk — Geographic: Texas retail stores; Concentration risk — Customer: independent distributors (77.0%); Thin upside margin: 6.1%.
Cavco Industries, Inc. trades at a P/E of 23.2 (forward 18.5). TrendMatrix value score: 6.6/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
11 analysts cover CVCO with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $665.
What does Cavco Industries, Inc. do?Cavco Industries designs and produces factory-built homes distributed through 92 Company-owned retail stores (57 in...
Cavco Industries designs and produces factory-built homes distributed through 92 Company-owned retail stores (57 in Texas) and an independent dealer network across 48 states and Canada, operating 33 homebuilding production lines (31 U.S., 2 in Mexico). Revenue comes from manufactured and modular home sales supplemented by consumer finance (CountryPlace) and property/casualty insurance (Standard Casualty) subsidiaries.