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CVCOCavco Industries, Inc.Hold5.5·$578.31+2.73%
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Cavco Industries, Inc. (CVCO) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Residential Construction

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $578.31, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: Texas; Concentration risk — Counterparty: single assumed reinsurance entity.

Cavco Industries is one of the largest U.S. producers of manufactured homes, operating 31 homebuilding production lines in 29 states and Mexico, distributed through 80 company-owned retail stores (46 in Texas) and a network of independent distributors in 48 states. Revenue comes... Read more

$578.31+0.4% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#1 of 16 Residential Construction
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield3.12%
Stop $537.83Target $580.50(resistance)A.R:R -0.5:1
Analyst target$625.00+8.1%3 analysts
$580.50our TP
$578.31price
$625.00mean
$700

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $578.31, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: Texas; Concentration risk — Counterparty: single assumed reinsurance entity. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 89. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 5.5/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 50d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-10
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 30, 202650d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Positive news sentiment (+0.67)
Positive momentum
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: Texas
Concentration risk — Counterparty: single assumed reinsurance entity
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)24.1
P/E (Fwd)19.7
Mkt Cap$4.4B
EV/EBITDA16.8
Profit Mgn8.5%
ROE17.6%
Rev Growth8.2%
Beta1.31
DividendNone
Rating analysts8

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.45bullish
IV61%elevated
Max Pain$700+21.0% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicTexas
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our operations are concentrated in certain states, most notably Texas, California, Florida, Arizona, and Oregon... of the 80 Company-owned retail stores, 46 are located in Texas'
  • HIGHcounterpartysingle assumed reinsurance entity
    10-K Item 1A: 'Substantially all of our assumed reinsurance is with one entity'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
0.9
Bollinger
1.0
52w Position
6.2
GatesA.R:R -0.5=NEGATIVEMomentum 7.0>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 50d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
89 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $443.33Resistance $592.35

Price Targets

$538
$581
A.Upside+0.4%
A.R:R-0.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-8.1% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=+2: SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (50d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CVCO stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $578.31, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: Texas; Concentration risk — Counterparty: single assumed reinsurance entity. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 89. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Target $580.50 (+0.4%), stop $537.83 (−7.5%), A.R:R -0.5:1. Score 5.5/10, high confidence.

What is the CVCO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $580.50 (+0.4% upside). Target $580.50 (+0.4%), stop $537.83 (−7.5%), A.R:R -0.5:1. Stop-loss: $537.83.

What are the risks of investing in CVCO?

Concentration risk — Geographic: Texas; Concentration risk — Counterparty: single assumed reinsurance entity; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is CVCO overvalued or undervalued?

Cavco Industries, Inc. trades at a P/E of 24.1 (forward 19.7). TrendMatrix value score: 5.7/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about CVCO?

8 analysts cover CVCO with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $625.

What does Cavco Industries, Inc. do?Cavco Industries is one of the largest U.S. producers of manufactured homes, operating 31 homebuilding production lines...

Cavco Industries is one of the largest U.S. producers of manufactured homes, operating 31 homebuilding production lines in 29 states and Mexico, distributed through 80 company-owned retail stores (46 in Texas) and a network of independent distributors in 48 states. Revenue comes from wholesale home sales to independent distributors (79% of factory-built housing sales) and company-owned retail; financial services and insurance subsidiaries provide additional revenue. No independent distributor exceeded 10% of factory-built housing revenue.

Related stocks: IBP (Installed Building Products, In) · MHO (M/I Homes, Inc.) · GRBK (Green Brick Partners, Inc.) · SKY (Champion Homes, Inc.) · TOL (Toll Brothers, Inc.)
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