An attractively valued residential homebuilder with three recent quarterly earnings beats trades just below its near-term technical ceiling with only 0.8% headroom remaining—and a risk/reward ratio of roughly 0.15-to-1 in an unfavorable direction—while revenues are declining 5% year-over-year and free cash flow is converting at only 27% of net income, making the current price a poor entry point despite the sound fundamental valuation.
Thesis pillars
- Attractive Fundamental Valuation→Stable
- Declining Revenue Growth Headwind→Stable
- Price At Technical Ceiling→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 25, 2026
Green Brick Partners, Inc. (GRBK) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Consumer Cyclical · Residential Construction
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $62.92 — A.R:R is negative (-2.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2).
Green Brick Partners builds and sells homes through seven brands across Dallas-Fort Worth, Austin, Houston, Atlanta, and the Treasure Coast, Florida market, also providing title, mortgage, and insurance services. Revenue comes from home closings at prices from the mid-$200s to... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $62.92 — A.R:R is negative (-2.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 48. Score 5.2/10, high confidence.
Passes 4/8 gates (clean insider activity, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and SEC filing concern. Suitability: aggressive.
About Green Brick Partners, Inc.
About Green Brick Partners, Inc.
Green Brick Partners builds homes through seven brands — Trophy, CB JENI, Normandy Homes, Southgate, Centre Living, The Providence Group, and GRBK GHO — across Dallas-Fort Worth, Austin, Houston, Atlanta, and the Treasure Coast, Florida, with 101 active selling communities and a December 31, 2025 backlog of 520 units valued at $354 million. Lot inventory totaled 48,828 owned or under contract at year-end, with 75.8% owned outright. The company employed approximately 620 full-time employees.
Green Brick earns revenue from home closings across price bands ranging from the mid-$200s under the Trophy entry-level brand to over $2.8 million under GRBK GHO on the Treasure Coast. The company acts solely as a general contractor, coordinating independent subcontractors for all construction work rather than employing field labor directly. Land is predominantly self-developed — the company targets delivering finished lots to builder subsidiaries within 12 to 24 months of acquisition — giving it control over entitlements, lot pipeline, and community design. Ancillary revenue flows from GRBK Mortgage, launched in 2024, along with Green Brick Title and Green Brick Insurance. The company targets a debt-to-capital ratio of approximately 20%, sitting at 14.7% as of December 31, 2025.
Show full overview
Interest rate sensitivity and tariff-driven cost pressure define the principal downside risks in the 10-K. Higher mortgage rates reduce buyer purchasing power and activate financing contingencies in sales contracts, allowing buyers to cancel. The Trump administration's 35% tariff on softwood lumber imports from Canada could increase construction costs that Green Brick may not fully offset through higher home prices in a demand-constrained market. In April 2026, the company disclosed via Form 8-K that it would restate revenue for 2023, 2024, and 2025, after finding that interest-rate buy-down closing cost incentives — tools used to help buyers afford financing — had been incorrectly excluded from the gross revenue line.
See also: Consumer Cyclical · Residential Construction
From Green Brick Partners, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 10, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — Green Brick Partners, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Is Green Brick Partners Inc (GRBK) Overvalued After Q2 Earnings - GuruFocus — GuruFocus negative
- NEWS Green Brick Partners: Q2 Earnings Snapshot - KING5.com — KING5.com neutral
- NEWS Green Brick Partners: Q2 Earnings Snapshot - king5.com — king5.com neutral
- NEWS Green Brick Partners: Q2 Earnings Snapshot - WKYC — WKYC neutral
- NEWS Green Brick Partners Announces Upcoming Preferred Dividend Payment - TipRanks — TipRanks neutral
Generated 2026-10-29T12:43:33Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMGeographicfour core markets10-K Item 1A: 'We currently operate in only four core markets and, outside of DFW, our operations are typically concentrated in a limited number of communities within those markets.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-29Item 4.02HIGHAudit Committee concluded FY2023-2025 residential revenue was incorrectly reported gross, excluding interest-rate buy-downs. Restatements required for three annual filings and Q1-Q3 2025 quarterly periods.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit
Revenue shrinking — -8.7% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $62.92 — A.R:R is negative (-2.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 48. Prior stop was $59.04. Score 5.2/10, high confidence.
Analyst target $52.70 reached (−16.2% from $62.92); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $59.04. Stop-loss: $59.04.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.
Green Brick Partners, Inc. trades at a P/E of 9.5 (forward 10.5). TrendMatrix value score: 8.9/10. Verdict: Sell.
9 analysts cover GRBK with a consensus score of 2.4/5. Average price target: $62.
What does Green Brick Partners, Inc. do?Green Brick Partners builds and sells homes through seven brands across Dallas-Fort Worth, Austin, Houston, Atlanta,...
Green Brick Partners builds and sells homes through seven brands across Dallas-Fort Worth, Austin, Houston, Atlanta, and the Treasure Coast, Florida market, also providing title, mortgage, and insurance services. Revenue comes from home closings at prices from the mid-$200s to over $2.8 million, with 48,828 lots owned or under contract and approximately 620 full-time employees as of December 31, 2025.