M/I Homes is priced attractively at under 10x forward earnings, but two of the last four quarters missed consensus estimates and one came in flat, with an average quarterly earnings surprise of -11.8% across all four periods — combined with free cash flow covering only 48% of reported net income and a quality score at the minimum acceptable threshold, the risk profile does not support a new position.
Thesis pillars
- Quality Floor No Entry Room↓Deteriorating
- Homebuilder Valuation Support↓Deteriorating
- Earnings Miss Pattern↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 13, 2026
M/I Homes, Inc. (MHO) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Consumer Cyclical · Residential Construction
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $123.60: Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend.
The Company commenced homebuilding activities in 1976 marking 2026 as our 50th year in business. Since that time, the Company has sold over 168,200 homes. Unless this Form 10-K otherwise indicates or the context otherwise requires, the terms the "Company," "we," "us" and "our"... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $123.60: Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 42. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 89d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — M/I Homes, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS M/I Homes Inc (MHO) Shares Surge 3.7% -- What GF Score of 84 Tel - GuruFocus — GuruFocus positive
- NEWS M/I Homes Q1 Review: The Inflection Point May Have Moved (NYSE:MHO) - Seeking Alpha — Seeking Alpha neutral
- NEWS Earnings Flash (MHO) M/I Homes Posts Q1 EPS $2.55, vs. FactSet Est of $2.60 - marketscreener.com — marketscreener.com neutral
- NEWS Earnings Flash (MHO) M/I Homes, Inc. Reports Q1 Revenue $920.7M, vs. FactSet Est of $921.7M - marketscreener.com — marketscreener.com neutral
- NEWS M/I Homes stock falls 3% on mixed first quarter results - Investing.com India — Investing.com India negative
Generated 2026-10-29T11:08:51Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Revenue shrinking — -4.9% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $123.60: Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 42. Prior stop was $114.95. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $133.17 (+7.7% upside). Prior stop was $114.95. Stop-loss: $114.95.
Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0).
M/I Homes, Inc. trades at a P/E of 11.7 (forward 11.0). TrendMatrix value score: 8.2/10. Verdict: Sell.
8 analysts cover MHO with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $157.
What does M/I Homes, Inc. do?The Company commenced homebuilding activities in 1976 marking 2026 as our 50th year in business. Since that time, the...
The Company commenced homebuilding activities in 1976 marking 2026 as our 50th year in business. Since that time, the Company has sold over 168,200 homes. Unless this Form 10-K otherwise indicates or the context otherwise requires, the terms the "Company," "we," "us" and "our" refer to M/I Homes, Inc. and its subsidiaries.