Value
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 5.5 |
| P/S | 9.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 2.1 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.7 |
| PEG | 7.6 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 19.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.90
CVCO · Why this verdict
Why Cavco Industries (CVCO) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.5/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.9 |
| ROA | 6.6 |
| Gross margin | 0.5 |
| Op margin | 3.5 |
| Net margin | 4.2 |
| Current ratio | 8.4 |
| FCF quality | 5.5 |
| Moat | 4.8 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 73% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
5.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.5 |
| EPS growth | 6.2 |
Momentum
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.6 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 1.1 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 89)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.5 |
| Analyst rating | 6.8 |
| Price target | 6.1 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (3.0) — signal dampened
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $182,127 (0.004% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.0 |
| quality rank | 6.6 |
| growth rank | 9.4 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
2.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.9 |
| support resistance | 0.8 |
| 52w position | 6.3 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.9 |
| days to cover | 7.0 |
| volatility | 1.9 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 3.8 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 5.8 |
| debt equity | 1.1 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.6 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELL|L3:NEWS_MOD=+2Passed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.7>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:51d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.6=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.56
Upside
-8.4%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRECOVERY — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 89
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — Beta 1.31>1.3, MCap $4.3B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 2.0 below the 5.4 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Momentum at 6.7) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-0.6=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.56 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Momentum at 6.7, Sentiment at 6.5, and Value at 5.9; the weakest are Technical at 2.7, Insider at 5.0, and Peer rank at 5.2. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.56 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.