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Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) Stock Analysis

Catalyst-Driven edge

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Discount Stores

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $1022.94, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: U.S. and Canadian operations (86.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Costco operates 914 membership warehouse clubs in 14 countries, selling limited-SKU merchandise at low prices to drive high sales volumes and rapid inventory turnover. Revenue comes from membership fees and merchandise sales, with ~10% from gasoline; U.S. and Canada accounted... Read more

$1022.94-0.9% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#4 of 9 Discount Stores
Stop $988.98Target $1013.63(resistance)A.R:R -0.6:1
Analyst target$1072.16+4.8%32 analysts
$1013.63our TP
$1022.94price
$1072.16mean
$650
$1315

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $1022.94, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: U.S. and Canadian operations (86.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 27d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Strong growth profile
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: U.S. and Canadian operations (86.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (4.1% away)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)52.6
P/E (Fwd)45.1
Mkt Cap$450.1B
EV/EBITDA33.3
Profit Mgn3.0%
ROE29.7%
Rev Growth21.5%
Beta0.98
Dividend0.58%
Rating analysts44

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.73neutral
IV34%normal
Max Pain$540-47.2% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicU.S. and Canadian operations86%
    10-K Item 1A: 'our U.S. and Canadian operations, which comprised 86% and 84% of net sales and operating income in 2025'
  • LOWGeographicCalifornia26%
    10-K Item 1A: 'we are highly dependent on our California operations, which comprised 26% of U.S. net sales in 2025'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ev Ebitda
0.0
Peg Ratio
2.2
Pe
2.4
Forward Pe
2.5
Analyst Target
4.0
Ps
9.3
Forward P/E: 45.1xPEG: 5.53
GatesA.R:R -0.6=NEGATIVEMomentum 6.7>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 27d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
71 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $964.60Resistance $1034.32

Price Targets

$989
$1014
A.Upside-0.9%
A.R:R-0.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-3.6% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-28 (27d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is COST stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $1022.94, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: U.S. and Canadian operations (86.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Target $1013.63 (-0.9%), stop $988.98 (−3.4%), A.R:R -0.6:1. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the COST stock price target?

Take-profit target: $1013.63 (-0.9% upside). Target $1013.63 (-0.9%), stop $988.98 (−3.4%), A.R:R -0.6:1. Stop-loss: $988.98.

What are the risks of investing in COST?

Concentration risk — Geographic: U.S. and Canadian operations (86.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.1% away).

Is COST overvalued or undervalued?

Costco Wholesale Corporation trades at a P/E of 52.6 (forward 45.1). TrendMatrix value score: 3.3/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about COST?

44 analysts cover COST with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $1072.

What does Costco Wholesale Corporation do?Costco operates 914 membership warehouse clubs in 14 countries, selling limited-SKU merchandise at low prices to drive...

Costco operates 914 membership warehouse clubs in 14 countries, selling limited-SKU merchandise at low prices to drive high sales volumes and rapid inventory turnover. Revenue comes from membership fees and merchandise sales, with ~10% from gasoline; U.S. and Canada accounted for 86% of net sales and operating income in 2025.

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