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COSTCostco Wholesale CorporationHold5.6·$978.50-0.39%
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Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Discount Stores

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $978.50, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Expensive valuation.

Costco Wholesale operates 914 membership warehouses across 14 countries, selling a curated assortment of branded and Kirkland Signature merchandise at low prices to 81 million paid members. Annual membership fees ($65 base, $130 Executive) drive retention; Executive members... Read more

$978.50+1.7% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#2 of 9 Discount Stores
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield1.60%
IncomeYield0.60%(5y avg 0.59%)Payout27.01%sustainable
Stop $936.51Target $995.75(analyst − 8%)A.R:R 0.3:1
Analyst target$1082.33+10.6%33 analysts
$995.75our TP
$978.50price
$1082.33mean
$740
$1315

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $978.50, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Expensive valuation. Chart setup: RSI 40 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 101d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Costco Wholesale Corporation

About Costco Wholesale Corporation

Costco Wholesale operated 914 membership warehouses in 14 countries at August 31, 2025 — up from 890 a year earlier — enrolling 81 million paid members with a 92.3% renewal rate in the U.S. and Canada. Gasoline accounted for approximately 10% of total net sales in 2025 and e-commerce another 7%, while digitally-enabled sales including Costco Travel combined reached approximately 10%. The U.S. and Canada together represented 86% of net sales and operating income, with 341,000 employees split across the U.S. (223,000), Canada (55,000), and Other International (63,000).

Costco earns revenue from merchandise sales across core categories — Foods and Sundries, Non-Foods, and Fresh Foods — plus warehouse ancillary services (gasoline, pharmacy, optical, food court, 747 gas stations) and other businesses including e-commerce and travel. The company carries fewer than 4,000 active SKUs in core warehouse operations, buying most merchandise directly from suppliers and routing it through cross-docking depots to reduce distribution costs. Kirkland Signature private-label products target higher margins than national brands and represent a growing share of sales. The company self-insures most employee health, workers' compensation, and property claims. Competitors in the U.S. club format include Walmart's Sam's Club and BJ's Wholesale Club, with broader competition from Walmart, Target, Kroger, and Amazon.

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California represented 26% of U.S. net sales in fiscal 2025, a concentration the 10-K characterizes as a material risk, noting the state carries a higher proportion of high-volume warehouses than other domestic markets. Combined, the U.S. and Canada account for 86% of both net sales and operating income — meaning declines in California or Canadian operations could materially weigh on consolidated results. International operations, generating 27% of net sales in 2025, expose the company to foreign-currency fluctuations, particularly in Canada, where unfavorable exchange rate movements may reduce reported operating income.

See also: Consumer Defensive · Discount Stores

From Costco Wholesale Corporation's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Sep 24, 2026101d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Strong growth profile
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Expensive valuation
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)49.5
P/E (Fwd)43.4
Mkt Cap$435.7B
EV/EBITDA31.5
Profit Mgn3.0%
ROE29.2%
Rev Growth21.5%
Beta0.87
Dividend0.60%
Rating analysts44

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.24bearish
IV36%normal
Max Pain$680-30.5% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ev Ebitda
0.0
Pe
2.5
Forward Pe
2.6
Peg Ratio
2.6
Analyst Target
5.0
Ps
9.3
Forward P/E: 43.4xPEG: 4.79

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
5.5
Obv
10.0
Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.9<4.5A.R:R 0.3 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 101d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
40 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $936.51Resistance $1096.50

Price Targets

$937
$996
A.Upside+1.8%
A.R:R0.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (1.7% upside)
! momentum at 3.9 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 0.3 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-09-24 (101d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is COST stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $978.50, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Expensive valuation. Chart setup: RSI 40 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Target $995.75 (+1.8%), stop $936.51 (−4.5%), A.R:R 0.3:1. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the COST stock price target?

Take-profit target: $995.75 (+1.7% upside). Target $995.75 (+1.8%), stop $936.51 (−4.5%), A.R:R 0.3:1. Stop-loss: $936.51.

What are the risks of investing in COST?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Expensive valuation; Negative momentum.

Is COST overvalued or undervalued?

Costco Wholesale Corporation trades at a P/E of 49.5 (forward 43.4). TrendMatrix value score: 3.6/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about COST?

44 analysts cover COST with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $1082.

What does Costco Wholesale Corporation do?Costco Wholesale operates 914 membership warehouses across 14 countries, selling a curated assortment of branded and...

Costco Wholesale operates 914 membership warehouses across 14 countries, selling a curated assortment of branded and Kirkland Signature merchandise at low prices to 81 million paid members. Annual membership fees ($65 base, $130 Executive) drive retention; Executive members represented 73.6% of worldwide net sales in fiscal 2025, with 341,000 employees globally.

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