Value
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 2.6 |
| P/S | 9.3 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 2.6 |
| PEG | 2.6 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 43.0x
- ▸PEG: 4.75
COST · Why this verdict
Why Costco Wholesale (COST) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 9.7 |
| ROA | 5.8 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 1.5 |
| Net margin | 1.5 |
| Current ratio | 4.2 |
| FCF quality | 5.9 |
| Moat | 6.8 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 29%
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 79% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
8.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 7.9 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 22% YoY
Momentum
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 8.2 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 4.8 |
- ▸Uptrend pullback (RSI 33) - buy opportunity
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.8 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 6.6 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.55 (n=4)
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $1,427,305 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.6 |
| quality rank | 5.6 |
| growth rank | 7.8 |
Technical
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.3 |
| support resistance | 7.8 |
| 52w position | 7.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.2 |
| days to cover | 6.5 |
| volatility | 5.7 |
| put call | 6.3 |
| implied vol | 6.6 |
| beta | 7.8 |
| debt equity | 7.4 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.4 |
| dividend safety | 6.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
- ▸Dividend: 61.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Mixed signals. Hold existing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD_DEFAULTPassed (8)
- MOMENTUM:5.4>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_BOOST:EARNINGS:0.70
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.70
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:109d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.5<1.5@spot
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:5.4<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
0.45
Upside
+2.5%
Downside
5.4%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The default F-path HOLD fired without any positive-conviction gate triggering — no momentum acceleration, no quality+value crossover, no setup recognition. Highest-clear gate: MOMENTUM:5.4>=4.5. Top dim: Growth at 8.9; weakest: Value at 3.6. The engine's read is one of pattern absence — no directional conviction in either direction at current asymmetry.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 8.9, Technical at 7.6, and Sentiment at 7.3; the weakest are Value at 3.6, Peer rank at 4.7, and Quality at 4.8. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.45 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.