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TGTTarget CorporationSell4.8·$127.50+0.70%
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Target Corporation (TGT) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Discount Stores

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $127.50 — A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (3.8% away).

Corporation was incorporated in Minnesota in 1902. Our corporate purpose is to help all families discover the joy of everyday life. We offer our customers, referred to as "guests," fashionable, differentiated merchandise and everyday essentials at discounted prices. We operate... Read more

$127.50+0.5% A.UpsideScore 4.8/10#8 of 9 Discount Stores
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield5.46%
IncomeYield3.60%(5y avg 2.98%)Payout59.97%sustainable
Stop $120.62Target $128.58(resistance)A.R:R -0.6:1
Analyst target$131.66+3.3%33 analysts
$128.58our TP
$127.50price
$131.66mean
$92
$160

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $127.50 — A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (3.8% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 63, MACD bullish. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 70d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and news soft fda negative. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-11

Recent Developments — Target Corporation

Generated 2026-06-15T18:11:47Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 19, 202670d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Consumer Defensive): +0.8
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (3.8% away)
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)16.7
P/E (Fwd)14.2
Mkt Cap$57.5B
EV/EBITDA8.8
Profit Mgn3.2%
ROE22.0%
Rev Growth6.7%
Beta0.99
Dividend3.60%
Rating analysts44

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C0.79neutral
IV41%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
4.2

Negative sentiment — recent news tone and/or analyst downgrades drag the composite below neutral.static

Llm Sentiment
1.0
Analyst Rating
5.0
Price Target
5.4
LLM news sentiment: -0.80 (n=1)
GatesA.R:R -0.6=NEGATIVENEWS SOFT FDA NEGATIVEMomentum 6.7>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 70d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
63 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $117.05Resistance $131.20

Price Targets

$121
$129
A.Upside+0.8%
A.R:R-0.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-5.4% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside
! NEWS_SOFT:FDA_NEGATIVE

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-19 (70d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TGT stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $127.50 — A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (3.8% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 63, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $120.62. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TGT stock price target?

Take-profit target: $128.58 (+0.5% upside). Prior stop was $120.62. Stop-loss: $120.62.

What are the risks of investing in TGT?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (3.8% away); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.0).

Is TGT overvalued or undervalued?

Target Corporation trades at a P/E of 16.7 (forward 14.2). TrendMatrix value score: 6.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about TGT?

44 analysts cover TGT with a consensus score of 3.4/5. Average price target: $132.

What does Target Corporation do?Corporation was incorporated in Minnesota in 1902. Our corporate purpose is to help all families discover the joy of...

Corporation was incorporated in Minnesota in 1902. Our corporate purpose is to help all families discover the joy of everyday life. We offer our customers, referred to as "guests," fashionable, differentiated merchandise and everyday essentials at discounted prices. We operate as a single segment designed to enable guests to purchase products seamlessly in stores or through our digital channels. Since 1946, we have given 5 percent of our profit to communities.

Related stocks: COST (Costco Wholesale Corporation) · DLTR (Dollar Tree, Inc.) · DG (Dollar General Corporation) · BJ (BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, I)
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