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MOAltria Group, Inc.Sell6.1·$71.94+0.74%
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Altria Group, Inc. (MO) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellModerate Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Tobacco

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $71.94 — A.R:R is negative (-2.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: United States.

Altria Group operates primarily in the United States through PM USA (Marlboro cigarettes, 61.8B units in 2025), USSTC (Copenhagen, Skoal MST), Helix (on! oral nicotine pouches), NJOY (e-vapor), and Middleton (Black & Mild cigars). Substantially all revenue is from domestic... Read more

$71.94+1.4% A.UpsideScore 6.1/10#2 of 6 Tobacco
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield7.16%
IncomeYield5.94%(5y avg 7.64%)Payout87.68%at-risk
Stop $68.56Target $72.92(resistance)A.R:R -2.9:1
Analyst target$70.36-2.2%11 analysts
$72.92our TP
$71.94price
$70.36mean
$59
$82

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $71.94 — A.R:R is negative (-2.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: United States. Chart setup: RSI 43 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 48d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: conservative.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-12
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 30, 202648d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
High-quality business
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: United States
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (3.5% away)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)14.9
P/E (Fwd)12.2
Mkt Cap$119.2B
EV/EBITDA8.9
Profit Mgn39.5%
ROE
Rev Growth5.3%
Beta0.50
Dividend5.94%
Rating analysts23

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.07bullish
IV48%normal
Max Pain$40-44.4% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicUnited States
    10-K Item 1: 'We operate primarily within the United States and generate substantially all of our revenue from domestic customers.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R -2.9=NEGATIVEMomentum 6.3>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 48d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Conservative
RSI
43 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $68.22Resistance $74.41

Price Targets

$69
$73
A.Upside+1.4%
A.R:R-2.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-14.9% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=-1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (48d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MO stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $71.94 — A.R:R is negative (-2.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: United States. Chart setup: RSI 43 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $68.56. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $72.92 (+1.4% upside). Prior stop was $68.56. Stop-loss: $68.56.

What are the risks of investing in MO?

Concentration risk — Geographic: United States; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (3.5% away).

Is MO overvalued or undervalued?

Altria Group, Inc. trades at a P/E of 14.9 (forward 12.2). TrendMatrix value score: 6.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about MO?

23 analysts cover MO with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $70.

What does Altria Group, Inc. do?Altria Group operates primarily in the United States through PM USA (Marlboro cigarettes, 61.8B units in 2025), USSTC...

Altria Group operates primarily in the United States through PM USA (Marlboro cigarettes, 61.8B units in 2025), USSTC (Copenhagen, Skoal MST), Helix (on! oral nicotine pouches), NJOY (e-vapor), and Middleton (Black & Mild cigars). Substantially all revenue is from domestic customers; Marlboro has been the largest-selling US cigarette brand for over 50 years.

Related stocks: BTI (British American Tobacco Indus) · PM (Philip Morris International Inc) · COKE (Coca-Cola Consolidated, Inc.) · MNST (Monster Beverage Corporation) · BG (Bunge Limited)
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