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Altria Group, Inc. (MO) Stock Analysis

HoldModerate Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Tobacco

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $73.33, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: United States domestic; Concentration risk — Supplier: single-country tobacco nicotine supply.

Altria Group is a U.S.-focused tobacco and nicotine holding company operating through PM USA (cigarettes), USSTC (moist smokeless tobacco), Helix (oral nicotine pouches), NJOY (e-vapor), and Middleton (cigars), with approximately 5,900 employees and revenue substantially all... Read more

$73.33-0.7% A.UpsideScore 6.5/10#2 of 6 Tobacco
Stop $70.02Target $72.79(resistance)A.R:R -1.7:1
Analyst target$66.17-9.8%12 analysts
$72.79our TP
$73.33price
$66.17mean
$50
$80

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $73.33, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: United States domestic; Concentration risk — Supplier: single-country tobacco nicotine supply. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/6 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
High-quality business
Strong growth profile
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: United States domestic
Concentration risk — Supplier: single-country tobacco nicotine supply
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)15.2
P/E (Fwd)12.5
Mkt Cap$121.5B
EV/EBITDA9.0
Profit Mgn39.7%
ROE
Rev Growth20.1%
Beta
Dividend5.84%
Rating analysts24

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C1.22bearish
IV33%normal
Max Pain$35-52.3% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicUnited States domestic
    10-K Item 1: 'We operate primarily within the United States and generate substantially all of our revenue from domestic customers.'
  • HIGHSuppliersingle-country tobacco nicotine supply
    10-K Item 1A: 'the nicotine used in our operating companies' innovative smoke-free products is extracted from tobacco produced in one country'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
0.9
52w Position
9.7
GatesA.R:R -1.7=NEGATIVEMomentum 6.7>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
72 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $64.08Resistance $74.28

Price Targets

$70
$73
A.Upside-0.7%
A.R:R-1.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-21.5% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-04-30 (nulld)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MO stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $73.33, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: United States domestic; Concentration risk — Supplier: single-country tobacco nicotine supply. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $72.79 (-0.7%), stop $70.02 (−4.7%), A.R:R -1.7:1. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $72.79 (-0.7% upside). Target $72.79 (-0.7%), stop $70.02 (−4.7%), A.R:R -1.7:1. Stop-loss: $70.02.

What are the risks of investing in MO?

Concentration risk — Geographic: United States domestic; Concentration risk — Supplier: single-country tobacco nicotine supply; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is MO overvalued or undervalued?

Altria Group, Inc. trades at a P/E of 15.2 (forward 12.5). TrendMatrix value score: 6.1/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about MO?

24 analysts cover MO with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $66.

What does Altria Group, Inc. do?Altria Group is a U.S.-focused tobacco and nicotine holding company operating through PM USA (cigarettes), USSTC (moist...

Altria Group is a U.S.-focused tobacco and nicotine holding company operating through PM USA (cigarettes), USSTC (moist smokeless tobacco), Helix (oral nicotine pouches), NJOY (e-vapor), and Middleton (cigars), with approximately 5,900 employees and revenue substantially all from domestic customers. The company generates income from premium brands including Marlboro, Copenhagen, Skoal, and on! pouches sold to wholesalers and large retailers in the United States.

Related stocks: BTI (British American Tobacco Indus) · PM (Philip Morris International Inc) · COKE (Coca-Cola Consolidated, Inc.) · MNST (Monster Beverage Corporation) · BUD (Anheuser-Busch Inbev SA Sponsor)