Value
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.8 |
| P/S | 8.2 |
| EV/EBITDA | 1.1 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.0 |
| PEG | 4.9 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 21.6x
- ▸PEG: 1.58
CMG · Why this verdict
Why Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.0/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 9.0 |
| Gross margin | 3.9 |
| Op margin | 5.3 |
| Net margin | 6.0 |
| Current ratio | 3.7 |
| FCF quality | 5.7 |
| Moat | 6.1 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 49%
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 75% FCF/NI
Growth
2.1/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.3 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
Momentum
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 4.8 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 29, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.7%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 3.3 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 9.3 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: -0.35 (n=9)
- ▸Analyst upside: 44%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.1 |
| quality rank | 7.6 |
| growth rank | 4.5 |
Technical
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.3 |
| support resistance | 6.9 |
| 52w position | 0.2 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.1 |
| days to cover | 8.3 |
| volatility | 2.9 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 4.2 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 7.1 |
| debt equity | 2.8 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 4.68
- ▸Above max pain $19
Catalyst
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.6 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:4.2>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:50d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.8<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
4.15
Upside
+32.0%
Downside
7.7%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupFALLING_KNIFE — Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 29, MACD bearish
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 2.0 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Sentiment at 6.7) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:3.8<4.5, DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 4.15 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Sentiment at 6.7, Quality at 6.3, and Catalyst at 6.3; the weakest are Growth at 2.1, Momentum at 3.8, and Risk (lower is worse) at 4.5. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 4.15 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.