Skip to main content
CAKEThe Cheesecake Factory IncorporSell5.5·$68.87+2.45%
Open full analysis

The Cheesecake Factory Incorpor (CAKE) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $68.87 — A.R:R is negative (-0.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (2.5% away).

The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated owns and operates 368 full-service restaurants under The Cheesecake Factory, North Italia, and Flower Child brands, and licenses FRC restaurants internationally. The company's bakery division manufactures and distributes cheesecakes and other... Read more

$68.87-0.3% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#10 of 20 Restaurants
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield3.79%
IncomeYield1.77%(5y avg 2.55%)Payout32.55%sustainable
Stop $63.18Target $67.76(resistance)A.R:R -0.8:1
Analyst target$66.76-3.1%17 analysts
$67.76our TP
$68.87price
$66.76mean
$50
$76

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $68.87 — A.R:R is negative (-0.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (2.5% away). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.5/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 48d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-10
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Jul 28, 202648d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Positive momentum
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (2.5% away)
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)19.9
P/E (Fwd)15.3
Mkt Cap$3.4B
EV/EBITDA15.6
Profit Mgn4.3%
ROE41.3%
Rev Growth5.6%
Beta1.04
Dividend1.77%
Rating analysts28

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.55bullish
IV66%elevated
Max Pain$90+30.7% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Show full disclosure ▾

About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.

No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.

Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
0.9
Bollinger
1.1
52w Position
9.7
GatesA.R:R -0.8=NEGATIVEMomentum 7.6>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 48d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
80 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $55.83Resistance $69.14

Price Targets

$63
$68
A.Upside-1.6%
A.R:R-0.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-11.6% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-28 (48d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CAKE stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $68.87 — A.R:R is negative (-0.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (2.5% away). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $63.18. Score 5.5/10, high confidence.

What is the CAKE stock price target?

Take-profit target: $67.76 (-0.3% upside). Prior stop was $63.18. Stop-loss: $63.18.

What are the risks of investing in CAKE?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.5% away); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9).

Is CAKE overvalued or undervalued?

The Cheesecake Factory Incorpor trades at a P/E of 19.9 (forward 15.3). TrendMatrix value score: 5.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about CAKE?

28 analysts cover CAKE with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $67.

What does The Cheesecake Factory Incorpor do?The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated owns and operates 368 full-service restaurants under The Cheesecake Factory, North...

The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated owns and operates 368 full-service restaurants under The Cheesecake Factory, North Italia, and Flower Child brands, and licenses FRC restaurants internationally. The company's bakery division manufactures and distributes cheesecakes and other baked goods to its own restaurants and external foodservice customers.

Related stocks: ARCO (Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc.) · CHA (Chagee Holdings Limited) · CAVA (CAVA Group, Inc.) · YUMC (Yum China Holdings, Inc.) · SHAK (Shake Shack, Inc.)
Home Stocks CAKE

Latest news

Latest News

MSN54d ago
Yahoo Finance54d ago
TradingView49d agoEarnings
GuruFocus55d ago
GuruFocus55d agoAnalyst
MSN53d ago
Cổng thông tin điện tử tỉnh Lào Cai54d agoEarnings
MarketBeat54d ago
Yahoo Finance54d ago
MarketBeat49d ago
Cổng thông tin điện tử Tỉnh Sơn La56d ago
Commercial Baking56d ago
Benzinga32d agoAnalyst
Benzinga46d agoAnalyst
Benzinga46d agoEarnings
Benzinga46d agoAnalyst
Benzinga46d agoAnalyst
Benzinga46d agoAnalyst
Benzinga46d agoEarnings
Benzinga46d agoEarnings
Loading more...