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BPBP p.l.c.Hold5.6·$42.17-3.55%
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BP p.l.c. (BP) Stock Analysis

HoldModerate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas Integrated

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $42.17, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 10.6× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.30× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Thin upside margin: 6.6%.

BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, engages in the oil and gas business worldwide. The company operates through Gas & Low Carbon Energy, Oil Production & Operations, and Customers & Products segments. It engages in the production of natural gas, marketing, and trading... Read more

$42.17+6.6% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#10 of 17 Oil & Gas Integrated
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield8.93%
IncomeYield4.57%(5y avg 4.86%)Payout160.00%at-risk
Stop $39.89Target $44.99(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 1.2:1
Analyst target$49.99+18.6%17 analysts
$44.99our TP
$42.17price
$49.99mean
$37
$62

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $42.17, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 10.6× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.30× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Thin upside margin: 6.6%. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 55d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and materials cycle peak fwd=10.6x,ratio=0.30x. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-09
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Aug 4, 202655d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Energy): +1.2
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Risks
Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 10.6× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.30× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.
Thin upside margin: 6.6%
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.4)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)35.3
P/E (Fwd)10.6
Mkt Cap$112.6B
EV/EBITDA21.4
Profit Mgn1.7%
ROE5.8%
Rev Growth11.6%
Beta-0.24
Dividend4.57%
Rating analysts31

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.75neutral
IV49%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.6
Value Rank
3.1
Growth Rank
6.5
GatesMomentum 4.5<4.5A.R:R 1.2 < 1.5@spotMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK fwd=10.6x,ratio=0.30xInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 55d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
31 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $41.12Resistance $46.25

Price Targets

$40
$45
A.Upside+6.7%
A.R:R1.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 4.5 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 1.2 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot
! MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:fwd=10.6x,ratio=0.30x

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-04 (55d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BP stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $42.17, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 10.6× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.30× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Thin upside margin: 6.6%. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Target $44.99 (+6.7%), stop $39.89 (−5.7%), A.R:R 1.2:1. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the BP stock price target?

Take-profit target: $44.99 (+6.6% upside). Target $44.99 (+6.7%), stop $39.89 (−5.7%), A.R:R 1.2:1. Stop-loss: $39.89.

What are the risks of investing in BP?

Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 10.6× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.30× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Thin upside margin: 6.6%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.4).

Is BP overvalued or undervalued?

BP p.l.c. trades at a P/E of 35.3 (forward 10.6). TrendMatrix value score: 6.8/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about BP?

31 analysts cover BP with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $50.

What does BP p.l.c. do?BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, engages in the oil and gas business worldwide. The company operates through...

BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, engages in the oil and gas business worldwide. The company operates through Gas & Low Carbon Energy, Oil Production & Operations, and Customers & Products segments. It engages in the production of natural gas, marketing, and trading activities, as well as solar, wind, and hydrogen businesses. The company also offers aviation fuel products and services, such as jet fuel; aviation gasoline; UL91 aviation fuel; and sustainable aviation fuel. In addition, it engages in the convenience and retail fuel; EV charging; Castrol lubricants and fluids; B2B; midstream; crude oil production; refining and oil trading; and bioenergy businesses. The company was founded in 1908 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.

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