Value
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.4 |
| P/S | 9.3 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.8 |
| PEG | 7.6 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 12.5x
- ▸PEG: 0.90
- ▸Attractively valued
BLBD · Why this verdict
Why Blue Bird (BLBD) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 10.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.2 |
| Op margin | 4.4 |
| Net margin | 4.5 |
| Current ratio | 6.5 |
| FCF quality | 7.4 |
| Moat | 5.8 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 54%
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
3.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.1 |
| EPS growth | 4.8 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -2%
Momentum
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 3.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 0.8 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.7 |
| Price target | 7.4 |
| erm sentiment | 4.3 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (7.0) — signal dampened
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider buying — $19,527 (0.001% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.8 |
| quality rank | 7.3 |
| growth rank | 2.3 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.0 |
| support resistance | 3.6 |
| 52w position | 7.1 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.0 |
| days to cover | 3.2 |
| volatility | 1.2 |
| put call | 7.8 |
| implied vol | 4.0 |
| beta | 5.5 |
| debt equity | 8.8 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:5.1>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:59d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.2<1.5@spot
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:5.1<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
0.20
Upside
+2.0%
Downside
10.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRANGE_BOUND — RSI 46 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — Beta 1.37>1.3, MCap $2.2B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.9 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Catalyst at 7.5) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:0.2<1.5@spot) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.20 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Catalyst at 7.5, Value at 7.3, and Quality at 6.3; the weakest are Growth at 3.5, Risk (lower is worse) at 4.9, and Insider at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.20 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.