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BGCBGC Group, Inc.Hold6.6·$11.85+5.71%
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BGC Group, Inc. (BGC) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Capital Markets

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $11.85, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Near 52-week high (0.5% away); Leverage penalty (D/E 1.6): -1.0.

BGC Group is a global inter-dealer broker and financial technology company providing brokerage and trade execution across fixed income, FX, equities, and energy, commodity, and shipping (ECS) markets. The company earns commissions and fees through Voice, Hybrid, and Fully... Read more

$11.85+11.1% A.UpsideScore 6.6/10#5 of 40 Capital Markets
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield0.67%(5y avg 0.82%)Payout21.62%sustainable
Stop $11.17Target $13.17(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 0.8:1
Analyst target$15.50+30.8%2 analysts
$13.17our TP
$11.85price
$15.50mean
$16

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $11.85, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Near 52-week high (0.5% away); Leverage penalty (D/E 1.6): -1.0. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 62, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 46d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About BGC Group, Inc.

About BGC Group, Inc.

BGC Group brokered transactions in fixed income, FX, equities, derivatives, and ECS products through 2,510 front-office personnel across 40+ cities globally at December 31, 2025. Fenics, the technology-driven segment, contributed 22.4% of total revenues for the year, while Voice and Hybrid brokerage represented the majority of revenues. The April 2025 acquisition of OTC Global established BGC as the world's largest energy, commodities, and shipping broker by revenue.

BGC earns commission and fee revenue from inter-dealer brokerage across fixed income, FX, equities, and ECS products, supplemented by recurring data, network, and post-trade service fees within Fenics. Voice and Hybrid brokerage generates per-transaction commissions and remains the majority of revenues; Fenics electronic platforms carry higher margins, with Fenics Integrated desks requiring expected pre-tax margins of at least 25%. In April 2025, BGC acquired OTC Global, adding crude and refined products, petrochemicals, natural gas, and ship brokerage, and in December 2025 acquired AMCOM for agricultural commodities. FMX — in which Bank of America, Barclays, Citi, Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, Morgan Stanley, and Wells Fargo collectively invested $171.7 million for a 25.75% ownership stake — operates a U.S. interest rate futures exchange and cash Treasuries platform. Top 10 customers accounted for approximately 23.6% of total consolidated revenue in 2025, with the largest at approximately 4.0%, indicating a highly fragmented client base.

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BGC's governance structure changed significantly in 2025: on February 18, Howard W. Lutnick was confirmed as U.S. Secretary of Commerce and stepped down as Chairman and CEO, with three Co-CEOs — John J. Abularrage, JP Aubin, and Sean Windeatt — simultaneously appointed. By October 6, 2025, Lutnick completed the divestiture of his holdings in compliance with government ethics rules, transferring effective control to trusts managed by Brandon Lutnick. The 10-K also notes that BGC excluded OTC Global from management's internal controls over financial reporting assessment for fiscal 2025, acknowledging that remediation of additional controls may be required when OTC Global is integrated.

See also: Financial Services · Capital Markets

From BGC Group, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-13
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 30, 202646d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Positive momentum
Risks
Near 52-week high (0.5% away)
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.6): -1.0

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)32.0
P/E (Fwd)7.3
Mkt Cap$5.7B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn5.9%
ROE14.6%
Rev Growth44.3%
Beta0.95
Dividend0.67%
Rating analysts6

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.11bullish
IV97%elevated
Max Pain$11-7.2% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
0.2
52w Position
9.9

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
3.3
Value Rank
4.3
Growth Rank
7.8
GatesA.R:R 0.8 < 1.5@spotMomentum 7.3>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 46d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
62 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $9.93Resistance $11.88

Price Targets

$11
$13
A.Upside+11.1%
A.R:R0.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! asymmetry at 0.8 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (46d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BGC stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $11.85, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Near 52-week high (0.5% away); Leverage penalty (D/E 1.6): -1.0. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 62, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $13.17 (+11.1%), stop $11.17 (−6.1%), A.R:R 0.8:1. Score 6.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the BGC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $13.17 (+11.1% upside). Target $13.17 (+11.1%), stop $11.17 (−6.1%), A.R:R 0.8:1. Stop-loss: $11.17.

What are the risks of investing in BGC?

Near 52-week high (0.5% away); Leverage penalty (D/E 1.6): -1.0.

Is BGC overvalued or undervalued?

BGC Group, Inc. trades at a P/E of 32.0 (forward 7.3). TrendMatrix value score: 8.5/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about BGC?

6 analysts cover BGC with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $16.

What does BGC Group, Inc. do?BGC Group is a global inter-dealer broker and financial technology company providing brokerage and trade execution...

BGC Group is a global inter-dealer broker and financial technology company providing brokerage and trade execution across fixed income, FX, equities, and energy, commodity, and shipping (ECS) markets. The company earns commissions and fees through Voice, Hybrid, and Fully Electronic platforms operated by 2,510 front-office personnel across 40+ cities, with the technology-driven Fenics business representing 22.4% of total revenues in 2025.

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