Skip to main content

LPL Financial Holdings Inc. (LPLA) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Capital Markets

Sell if holding. At $326.92, A.R:R 0.8:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 9.0%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5.

LPL Financial is the nation largest independent broker-dealer, supporting more than 32,000 financial advisors and 1,200 financial institutions with approximately 2.4 trillion in custodied assets. Revenue comes from commissions, advisory fees, asset-based fees; client cash... Read more

$326.92+9.0% A.UpsideScore 5.9/10#16 of 40 Capital Markets
Stop $304.78Target $357.26(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.8:1
Analyst target$410.64+25.6%14 analysts
$357.26our TP
$326.92price
$410.64mean
$540

Sell if holding. At $326.92, A.R:R 0.8:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 9.0%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 54. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Thin upside margin: 9.0%
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5
Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.6%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)30.6
P/E (Fwd)11.8
Mkt Cap$26.8B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn5.2%
ROE20.9%
Rev Growth41.8%
Beta0.57
Dividend0.36%
Rating analysts21

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C2.36bearish
IV53%elevated
Max Pain$180-44.9% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMProductclient cash programs
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our client cash programs generate a significant portion of our revenue'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R 0.8 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 6.1>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
54 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $292.06Resistance $339.99

Price Targets

$305
$357
A.Upside+9.3%
A.R:R0.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Reward/Risk 0.8:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-04-30 (nulld)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is LPLA stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $326.92, A.R:R 0.8:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 9.0%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 54. Prior stop was $304.78. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the LPLA stock price target?

Take-profit target: $357.26 (+9.0% upside). Prior stop was $304.78. Stop-loss: $304.78.

What are the risks of investing in LPLA?

Thin upside margin: 9.0%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5; Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.6%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is LPLA overvalued or undervalued?

LPL Financial Holdings Inc. trades at a P/E of 30.6 (forward 11.8). TrendMatrix value score: 7.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about LPLA?

21 analysts cover LPLA with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $411.

What does LPL Financial Holdings Inc. do?LPL Financial is the nation largest independent broker-dealer, supporting more than 32,000 financial advisors and 1,200...

LPL Financial is the nation largest independent broker-dealer, supporting more than 32,000 financial advisors and 1,200 financial institutions with approximately 2.4 trillion in custodied assets. Revenue comes from commissions, advisory fees, asset-based fees; client cash programs generate a significant portion of revenue via interest on deposits.

Related stocks: FUTU (Futu Holdings Limited) · EVR (Evercore Inc.) · PIPR (Piper Sandler Companies) · VIRT (Virtu Financial, Inc.) · SF (Stifel Financial Corporation)