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Nomura Holdings Inc (NMR) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Capital Markets

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $7.83 — A.R:R 0.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 9.2): -1.5.

Nomura Holdings, Inc. engages in the provision of investment, financing, and related services to individual, institutional, and government clients worldwide. It operates through three segments: Wealth Management, Investment Management, and Wholesale. The Wealth Management... Read more

$7.83+1.5% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#18 of 40 Capital Markets
Stop $7.49Target $7.95(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 0.3:1
Analyst target$9.35+19.4%1 analysts
Range unavailable (1 analysts)

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $7.83 — A.R:R 0.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 9.2): -1.5. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 87d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 9.2): -1.5
Consecutive earnings misses (3)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)10.7
P/E (Fwd)14.4
Mkt Cap$23.3B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn16.7%
ROE10.1%
Rev Growth27.5%
Beta0.61
Dividend5.11%
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C1.50bearish
IV65%elevated
Max Pain$5-36.1% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R 0.3 < 1.5@spotMomentum 4.9<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.9>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 87d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
35 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $7.72Resistance $8.75

Price Targets

$7
$8
A.Upside+1.5%
A.R:R0.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (1.4% upside)
! Reward/Risk 0.3:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-28 (87d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NMR stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $7.83 — A.R:R 0.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 9.2): -1.5. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $7.49. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the NMR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $7.95 (+1.5% upside). Prior stop was $7.49. Stop-loss: $7.49.

What are the risks of investing in NMR?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 9.2): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (3).

Is NMR overvalued or undervalued?

Nomura Holdings Inc trades at a P/E of 10.7 (forward 14.4). TrendMatrix value score: 7.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about NMR?

13 analysts cover NMR with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $9.

What does Nomura Holdings Inc do?Nomura Holdings, Inc. engages in the provision of investment, financing, and related services to individual,...

Nomura Holdings, Inc. engages in the provision of investment, financing, and related services to individual, institutional, and government clients worldwide. It operates through three segments: Wealth Management, Investment Management, and Wholesale. The Wealth Management segment offers investment consultation services. The Investment Management segment provides investment management services and investment solutions, such as establishing and managing investment trusts, discretionary investment services, as well as investment and management for investment vehicles, and for funds for institutional investors, and management of silent partnerships. The Wholesale segment is involved in the sales and trading of debt and equity securities, foreign exchange contracts and derivatives; offers investment banking services, including underwriting and distribution of debt and equity securities, mergers and acquisitions, and financial advisory. The company was formerly known as The Nomura Securities Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Nomura Holdings, Inc. in October 2001. Nomura Holdings, Inc. was incorporated in 1925 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.

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