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NMRNomura Holdings IncSell5.8·$8.75+4.04%
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Nomura Holdings Inc (NMR) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Capital Markets

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $8.75 — A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 9.2): -1.5.

Nomura Holdings, Inc. engages in the provision of investment, financing, and related services to individual, institutional, and government clients worldwide. It operates through three segments: Wealth Management, Investment Management, and Wholesale. The Wealth Management... Read more

$8.75-0.6% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#22 of 40 Capital Markets
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield4.89%(5y avg 3.69%)Payout21.73%sustainable
Stop $8.22Target $8.53(resistance)A.R:R -0.7:1
Analyst target$9.35+6.8%1 analysts
Range unavailable (1 analysts)

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $8.75 — A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 9.2): -1.5. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 68, MACD bullish. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 49d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-09
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Jul 28, 202649d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Attractive valuation
Positive momentum
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 9.2): -1.5
Consecutive earnings misses (3)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)11.4
P/E (Fwd)15.0
Mkt Cap$24.6B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn16.7%
ROE10.1%
Rev Growth27.5%
Beta0.61
Dividend4.89%
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.50bearish
IV105%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Dividend Safety
7.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3MDividend: 489.0%

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
1.2
Gap
5.0
52w Position
7.9
GatesA.R:R -0.7=NEGATIVEMomentum 7.2>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 49d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
68 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $7.71Resistance $8.70

Price Targets

$8
$9
A.Upside-2.5%
A.R:R-0.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-7.4% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-28 (49d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NMR stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $8.75 — A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 9.2): -1.5. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 68, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $8.22. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the NMR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $8.53 (-0.6% upside). Prior stop was $8.22. Stop-loss: $8.22.

What are the risks of investing in NMR?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 9.2): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (3).

Is NMR overvalued or undervalued?

Nomura Holdings Inc trades at a P/E of 11.4 (forward 15.0). TrendMatrix value score: 7.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about NMR?

14 analysts cover NMR with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $9.

What does Nomura Holdings Inc do?Nomura Holdings, Inc. engages in the provision of investment, financing, and related services to individual,...

Nomura Holdings, Inc. engages in the provision of investment, financing, and related services to individual, institutional, and government clients worldwide. It operates through three segments: Wealth Management, Investment Management, and Wholesale. The Wealth Management segment offers asset management services. The Investment Management segment provides investment management services and investment solutions, such as establishing and managing investment trusts, discretionary investment services, investment and management for investment vehicles, funds for institutional investors, and management of silent partnerships. The Wholesale segment is involved in the sales and trading of debt and equity securities, foreign exchange; offers investment banking services, including underwriting and distribution of debt and equity securities, mergers and acquisitions, and financial advisory services. Nomura Holdings, Inc. was incorporated in 1925 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.

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