Value
8.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.5 |
| P/S | 9.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.7 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 7.1x
- ▸PEG: 0.26
- ▸Attractively valued
BGC · Why this verdict
Why BGC Group (BGC) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
BGC Group is deeply cheap (forward P/E 7.4x, PEG 0.27) with a strong Piotroski score and 15.4% upside to the analyst target, though earnings have only been in line and leverage is elevated.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
BGC looks deeply undervalued at a forward P/E of 7.4x and a PEG of 0.27. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E stays below 10x as earnings grow, with the stock re-rating toward the analyst target. | →Stable |
| CounterA multiple this low for a capital-markets business may reflect cyclical earnings peaks and revenue-data inconsistencies of 16% to 19% between sources. | ||
The price of $11.79 sits 15.4% below the $13.60 analyst target, a reward-to-risk of 2.48 against 6.2% downside. Upside pct | Price closes much of the gap to $13.60 within 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterCoverage is light (2.0 analysts), so the target rests on very few opinions. | ||
BGC has a strong Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 and a gross margin component at 10/10, indicating sound financial health. Quality breakdown | Piotroski F-Score stays at 7 or above over the next four quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterOperating margin scores only 3.6/10 and net margin 3.1/10, so profitability after costs is thin. | ||
Earnings have met or slightly beaten estimates in all four quarters (one beat, three in line), with an average surprise of 4.0%. Earnings | EPS meets or beats the estimate in the report due in 12 days and the following quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterSurprises of 1% to 7% are small, so a small cost increase could produce a miss. | ||
Debt is elevated, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.6 triggering a leverage penalty of 1.0 point. Bear case | Debt-to-equity declines below 1.4 over 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterCapital-markets firms carry structural leverage, and a debt-to-equity score of 3.9/10 may overstate the risk. | ||
BGC looks deeply undervalued at a forward P/E of 7.4x and a PEG of 0.27.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E stays below 10x as earnings grow, with the stock re-rating toward the analyst target.
CounterA multiple this low for a capital-markets business may reflect cyclical earnings peaks and revenue-data inconsistencies of 16% to 19% between sources.
The price of $11.79 sits 15.4% below the $13.60 analyst target, a reward-to-risk of 2.48 against 6.2% downside.
→StableUpside pct
- Expectation
- Price closes much of the gap to $13.60 within 12 months.
CounterCoverage is light (2.0 analysts), so the target rests on very few opinions.
BGC has a strong Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 and a gross margin component at 10/10, indicating sound financial health.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Piotroski F-Score stays at 7 or above over the next four quarters.
CounterOperating margin scores only 3.6/10 and net margin 3.1/10, so profitability after costs is thin.
Earnings have met or slightly beaten estimates in all four quarters (one beat, three in line), with an average surprise of 4.0%.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS meets or beats the estimate in the report due in 12 days and the following quarters.
CounterSurprises of 1% to 7% are small, so a small cost increase could produce a miss.
Debt is elevated, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.6 triggering a leverage penalty of 1.0 point.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Debt-to-equity declines below 1.4 over 12 months.
CounterCapital-markets firms carry structural leverage, and a debt-to-equity score of 3.9/10 may overstate the risk.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.3 |
| ROA | 2.4 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 3.6 |
| Net margin | 3.1 |
| Current ratio | 5.5 |
| Moat | 6.2 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
6.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.6 |
| EPS growth | 7.5 |
Momentum
3.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 3.9 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 3.9 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.2 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 40%
Insider
5.5/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 6.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.4 |
| quality rank | 3.9 |
| growth rank | 2.7 |
Technical
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.0 |
| support resistance | 7.2 |
| 52w position | 7.8 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.0 |
| days to cover | 7.7 |
| volatility | 5.0 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 7.1 |
| debt equity | 3.9 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.36
- ▸High IV: 81%
Catalyst
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.5 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
- ▸Earnings in 6 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:3.2>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.7<4.5
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
3.16
Upside
+18.9%
Downside
6.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 55 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: ASYMMETRY:3.2>=1.5. Top dim: Value at 8.6; weakest: Peer rank at 3.5. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.6, Technical at 7.3, and Sentiment at 6.4; the weakest are Peer rank at 3.5, Momentum at 3.7, and Risk (lower is worse) at 4.5. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 3.16 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Deep Value Low Peg
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 11x from the current 7.4x.
- P2Analyst Target Upside
Trip ifAnalyst target falls below $12 from the current $13.60.
- P3Strong Financial Health
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 5 from the current 8.
- P4Steady In Line Earnings
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P5Leverage Penalty
Trip ifDebt-to-equity exceeds 2.0 from the current 1.6.