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AVPTAvePoint, Inc.Sell6.3·$17.20
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

This software infrastructure company delivers strong double-digit revenue growth and has beaten earnings three of the last four quarters with a favorable reward-to-risk profile at current prices, but heavy enterprise segment concentration and elevated leverage are meaningful offset risks while the technical picture remains in recovery mode.

Thesis pillars

  • Strong Revenue Growth Profile→Stable
  • Enterprise Concentration Leverage Risk↑Improving
  • Earnings Beat Track Record→Stable
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 26, 2026

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

AvePoint, Inc. (AVPT) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5GrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Technology · Software - Infrastructure

Earnings in 7 days (2026-11-05). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $17.20 — A.R:R is negative (-0.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: Enterprise segment (52.0%).

AvePoint provides cloud data governance and protection through the AvePoint Confidence Platform, serving 28,000+ customers across 100+ countries with SaaS subscriptions for backup, compliance, and access governance spanning Microsoft, Salesforce, Google, and AWS ecosystems. The... Read more

$17.20-13.5% A.UpsideScore 6.3/10#13 of 99 Software - Infrastructure
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield2.24%
Stop $16.00Analyst target $14.87(reached)A.R:R -0.9:1
Analyst consensus$17.09-0.6%14 analysts
$17.20price
$17.09mean
$14
$26

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $17.20 — A.R:R is negative (-0.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: Enterprise segment (52.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.60, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 7d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Nov 5, 20267d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Strong growth profile
Positive momentum
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: Enterprise segment (52.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (1.5% away)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)53.8
P/E (Fwd)34.6
Mkt Cap$3.6B
EV/EBITDA61.8
Profit Mgn15.3%
ROE16.2%
Rev Growth22.0%
Beta1.17
DividendNone
Rating analysts19

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatWideCompounder✓

Options Flow

P/C0.47bullish
IV65%elevated
Max Pain$11-36.0% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductEnterprise segment52%
    10-K Item 1: 'the Enterprise segment accounted for 52% of our total annual recurring revenue'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
0.8
Gap
4.0
52w Position
9.7
GatesA.R:R -0.9=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 7d<=7dMomentum 8.6>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.60SEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
74 · Overbought
↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $13.91Resistance $17.47

Price Targets

A.Upside-13.5%
A.R:R-0.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-13.5% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:7d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-05 (7d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AVPT stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $17.20 — A.R:R is negative (-0.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: Enterprise segment (52.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $16.00. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AVPT stock price target?

Analyst target $14.87 reached (−13.5% from $17.20); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $16.00. Stop-loss: $16.00.

What are the risks of investing in AVPT?

Concentration risk — Product: Enterprise segment (52.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (1.5% away).

Is AVPT overvalued or undervalued?

AvePoint, Inc. trades at a P/E of 53.8 (forward 34.6). TrendMatrix value score: 4.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AVPT?

19 analysts cover AVPT with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $17.

What does AvePoint, Inc. do?AvePoint provides cloud data governance and protection through the AvePoint Confidence Platform, serving 28,000+...

AvePoint provides cloud data governance and protection through the AvePoint Confidence Platform, serving 28,000+ customers across 100+ countries with SaaS subscriptions for backup, compliance, and access governance spanning Microsoft, Salesforce, Google, and AWS ecosystems. The Enterprise segment (>5,000 seats) drove 52% of total ARR at end of 2025, with ~6,000 channel partners handling most SMB and mid-market distribution.

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