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ASMLASML Holding N.V. - New York ReBuy Wait6.7·$1662.85
Buy WaitModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

ASML is a wide-moat, high-margin semiconductor equipment leader growing 55% year over year with a strong beat record, currently sold off on weak momentum. A 23.0% analyst-target upside against 7.5% downside makes it an accumulate-on-weakness candidate.

Thesis pillars

  • Strong Revenue Growth→Stable
  • Wide Moat High Returns→Stable
  • Consistent Earnings Beats↓Deteriorating
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Oct 24, 2026

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

ASML Holding N.V. - New York Re (ASML) Stock Analysis

Buy WaitGrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Technology · Semiconductor Equipment & Materials

Wait for pullback to $1616.68. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $1662.85. Engine's entry $1616.68 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risk: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.

ASML Holding N.V. provides lithography solutions for the development, production, marketing, sales, upgrading, and servicing of advanced semiconductor equipment systems. The company offers lithography, metrology, and inspection systems. It also provides extreme ultraviolet... Read more

$1662.85+15.7% A.UpsideScore 6.7/10#4 of 24 Semiconductor Equipment & Materials
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield1.62%
IncomeYield0.57%(5y avg 0.77%)Payout22.26%sustainable
Entry $1616.68(Atr Pullback Sticky)Stop $1505.22Target $1923.31(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 2.3:1
Analyst consensus$2137.01+28.5%17 analysts
$1923.31our TP
$1662.85price
$2137.01mean
$862
$2832

Wait for pullback to $1616.68. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $1662.85. Engine's entry $1616.68 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risk: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.87, quality 8.5/10, growth 10.0/10). Score 6.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 8/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 90d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jan 27, 202790d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
V7 flight-to-quality bonus: +0.5 (Q=8.5 in RISK_OFF)
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
High-quality business
Risks
Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)40.9
P/E (Fwd)26.5
Mkt Cap$640.9B
EV/EBITDA2186.5
Profit Mgn34.1%
ROE65.6%
Rev Growth55.2%
Beta1.30
Dividend0.57%
Rating analysts42

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatWideCompounder✓

Options Flow

P/C0.87neutral
IV48%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 ceiling hit

GatesMomentum 4.6<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.6>=4.5A.R:R 2.3 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 90d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
38 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $1548.26Resistance $1871.40

Price Targets

$1505
$1617
$1923
A.Upside+15.7%
A.R:R2.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %1%
Max %2%
RegimeRisk-Off

Analyst Consensus

Analysts42
Consensus4.0/5
Avg Target$2137

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2027-01-27 (90d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ASML stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $1616.68. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $1662.85. Engine's entry $1616.68 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risk: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.87, quality 8.5/10, growth 10.0/10). Target $1923.31 (+15.7%), stop $1505.22 (−10.5%), A.R:R 2.3:1. Score 6.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ASML stock price target?

Take-profit target: $1923.31 (+15.7% upside). Target $1923.31 (+15.7%), stop $1505.22 (−10.5%), A.R:R 2.3:1. Stop-loss: $1505.22.

What are the risks of investing in ASML?

Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.

Is ASML overvalued or undervalued?

ASML Holding N.V. - New York Re trades at a P/E of 40.9 (forward 26.5). TrendMatrix value score: 4.6/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about ASML?

42 analysts cover ASML with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $2137.

What does ASML Holding N.V. - New York Re do?ASML Holding N.V. provides lithography solutions for the development, production, marketing, sales, upgrading, and...

ASML Holding N.V. provides lithography solutions for the development, production, marketing, sales, upgrading, and servicing of advanced semiconductor equipment systems. The company offers lithography, metrology, and inspection systems. It also provides extreme ultraviolet lithography systems; and deep ultraviolet lithography systems comprising immersion and dry lithography systems solutions to manufacture various range of semiconductor nodes and technologies. In addition, the company offers metrology and inspection systems, including YieldStar optical metrology systems, a diffraction-based wafer metrology platform to assess the quality of patterns on the wafers; and HMI electron beam solutions to locate and analyze individual chip defects. Further, it provides computational lithography solutions, and lithography systems and control software solutions; and refurbishes and upgrades lithography systems, as well as offers customer support and related services. Additionally, the company offers hardware, software, and services to chipmakers to produce the patterns of integrated circuits. It operates in Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, China, rest of Asia, the Netherlands, rest of Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the United States. The company was formerly known as ASM Lithography Holding N.V. and changed its name to ASML Holding N.V. in 2001. ASML Holding N.V. was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Veldhoven, the Netherlands.

Related stocks: LRCX (Lam Research Corporation) · AMAT (Applied Materials, Inc.) · KLAC (KLA Corporation) · TSM (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufactur) · SNDK (Sandisk Corporation)
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