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TSMTaiwan Semiconductor ManufacturBuy Wait6.9·$439.73+4.43%
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Taiwan Semiconductor Manufactur (TSM) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

Buy WaitModerate Confidence

Technology · Semiconductors

Wait for pullback to $365.02. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $439.73. Engine's entry $365.02 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risk: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, packages, tests, and sells integrated circuits and other semiconductor devices in Taiwan, China, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Japan, the United States, and internationally. It... Read more

$439.73+10.8% A.UpsideScore 6.9/10#1 of 45 Semiconductors
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield32.71%
IncomeYield0.90%(5y avg 1.57%)Payout27.93%sustainable
Entry $365.02(Ma50 Sticky)Stop $327.38Target $440.34(resistance)A.R:R -0.1:1Setup A.R:R 1.7:1
Analyst target$467.84+6.4%18 analysts
$440.34our TP
$439.73price
$467.84mean
$354
$600

Wait for pullback to $365.02. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $439.73. Engine's entry $365.02 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risk: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: RSI 57 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Fundamentals strong but target reached (-0.7% upside). Wait for pullback. Score 6.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 32d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 16, 202632d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
High-quality business
Strong growth profile
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)36.5
P/E (Fwd)21.7
Mkt Cap$2.20T
EV/EBITDA5.4
Profit Mgn46.5%
ROE36.2%
Rev Growth35.1%
Beta1.25
Dividend0.90%
Rating analysts42

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C1.37bearish
IV76%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 ceiling hits

GatesA.R:R -0.1=NEGATIVEMomentum 5.4<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.4>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 32d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
57 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $384.35Resistance $449.33

Price Targets

$327
$365
$440
A.Upside+0.1%
A.R:R-0.1:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)1.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-0.7% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-16 (32d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TSM stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $365.02. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $439.73. Engine's entry $365.02 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risk: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: RSI 57 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Fundamentals strong but target reached (-0.7% upside). Wait for pullback. Target $440.34 (+0.1%), stop $327.38 (−34.3%), Setup A.R:R 1.7:1. Score 6.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TSM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $440.34 (+10.8% upside). Target $440.34 (+0.1%), stop $327.38 (−34.3%), Setup A.R:R 1.7:1. Stop-loss: $327.38.

What are the risks of investing in TSM?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is TSM overvalued or undervalued?

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufactur trades at a P/E of 36.5 (forward 21.7). TrendMatrix value score: 6.1/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about TSM?

42 analysts cover TSM with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $468.

What does Taiwan Semiconductor Manufactur do?Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, packages, tests, and...

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, packages, tests, and sells integrated circuits and other semiconductor devices in Taiwan, China, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Japan, the United States, and internationally. It provides various wafer fabrication processes, such as processes to manufacture complementary metal- oxide-semiconductor (CMOS) logic, mixed-signal, radio frequency, embedded memory, bipolar CMOS mixed-signal, and others. The company also involved in providing customer and engineering support services; manufacturing of masks; investment in technology start-up companies; research, designing, developing, manufacturing, packaging, testing, and sale of color filters; and investment activities. Its products are used in high performance computing, smartphones, Internet of things, automotive, and digital consumer electronics. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Hsinchu City, Taiwan.

Related stocks: AVGO (Broadcom Inc.) · NVDA (NVIDIA Corporation) · MU (Micron Technology, Inc.) · AMD (Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.) · QCOM (QUALCOMM Incorporated)
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