The company delivers 35% annual revenue growth against a 47% margin structure and a wide economic moat at a PEG of 1.29, with four consecutive earnings beats reinforcing execution discipline. The 2.4-to-1 risk/reward is favorable, though weak momentum and free cash flow converting at only 38% of net income justify a small initial position pending a technical breakout.
Thesis pillars
- Strong Growth Trajectory→Stable
- Franchise Quality And Moat→Stable
- Consistent Earnings Beat Streak→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufactur (TSM) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Technology · Semiconductors
Wait for pullback to $413.70. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $439.51. Engine's entry $413.70 (support + ATR (held)) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risk: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, packages, tests, and sells integrated circuits and other semiconductor devices in Taiwan, China, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Japan, the United States, and internationally. It... Read more
Wait for pullback to $413.70. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $439.51. Engine's entry $413.70 (support + ATR (held)) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risk: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: RSI 42 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.79, quality 9.0/10, growth 10.0/10). Score 7.5/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 8/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 77d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — Taiwan Semiconductor Manufactur
Latest news
- NEWS AI’s Semiconductor Boom Has a Clear Center of Gravity: Taiwan Semiconductor - Benzinga — Benzinga positive
- NEWS TSM Stock Slips Premarket Today — CEO Reportedly Says AI Chip Shortage Isn’t Ending Anytime Soon - Stocktwits — Stocktwits negative
- NEWS TSM Stock Spikes Overnight: Q1 Print Tops Estimates On Strong Demand For AI Chips, Advanced Processors - Stocktwits — Stocktwits positive
- NEWS Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (NYSE:TSM) Stock Faces Fresh Questions Over China Tools And AI Spending - Yahoo Finan — Yahoo Finance negative
- NEWS Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (NYSE:TSM) Stock Faces Fresh Questions Over China Tools And AI Spending - finance.yah — finance.yahoo.com negative
Generated 2026-10-29T11:08:52Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
2 ceiling hits
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Analyst Consensus
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $413.70. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $439.51. Engine's entry $413.70 (support + ATR (held)) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risk: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: RSI 42 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.79, quality 9.0/10, growth 10.0/10). Target $525.95 (+19.7%), stop $394.92 (−11.3%), A.R:R 2.7:1. Score 7.5/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $525.95 (+19.7% upside). Target $525.95 (+19.7%), stop $394.92 (−11.3%), A.R:R 2.7:1. Stop-loss: $394.92.
Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufactur trades at a P/E of 28.5 (forward 18.8). TrendMatrix value score: 7.7/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
42 analysts cover TSM with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $584.
What does Taiwan Semiconductor Manufactur do?Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, packages, tests, and...
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, packages, tests, and sells integrated circuits and other semiconductor devices in Taiwan, China, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Japan, the United States, and internationally. It provides various wafer fabrication processes, such as processes to manufacture complementary metal- oxide-semiconductor (CMOS) logic, mixed-signal, radio frequency, embedded memory, bipolar CMOS mixed-signal, and others. The company also involved in providing customer and engineering support services; manufacturing of masks; investment in technology start-up companies; research, designing, developing, manufacturing, packaging, testing, and sale of color filters; and investment activities. Its products are used in high performance computing, smartphones, Internet of things, automotive, and digital consumer electronics. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Hsinchu City, Taiwan.