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Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup · Catalyst-Driven edge

HoldModerate Confidence

Technology · Semiconductor Equipment & Materials

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $392.75, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: limited number of customers; Concentration risk — Geographic: China, Taiwan and Korea.

Applied Materials designs, develops, manufactures, and sells semiconductor wafer fabrication equipment and services globally across two segments: Semiconductor Systems (largest) and Applied Global Services. In fiscal 2025, approximately 89% of net revenue came from customers... Read more

$392.75+5.1% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#4 of 25 Semiconductor Equipment & Materials
Stop $365.29Target $412.09(resistance)A.R:R -0.0:1
Analyst target$424.38+8.1%32 analysts
$412.09our TP
$392.75price
$424.38mean
$280
$500

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $392.75, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: limited number of customers; Concentration risk — Geographic: China, Taiwan and Korea. Chart setup: RSI 48 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
High-quality business
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: limited number of customers
Concentration risk — Geographic: China, Taiwan and Korea
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)40.5
P/E (Fwd)28.0
Mkt Cap$313.1B
EV/EBITDA35.1
Profit Mgn27.8%
ROE38.9%
Rev Growth-2.1%
Beta1.64
Dividend0.54%
Rating analysts43

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.48bullish
IV66%elevated
Max Pain$185-52.9% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerlimited number of customers
    10-K Item 1A: 'A relatively limited number of customers account for a substantial portion of our business.'
  • HIGHGeographicChina, Taiwan and Korea
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our customer base is geographically concentrated, particularly in China, Taiwan and Korea'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ev Ebitda
0.0
Ps
2.7
Pe
3.0
Analyst Target
4.0
Forward Pe
4.4
Peg Ratio
4.7
Forward P/E: 28.0xPEG: 1.82

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
2.0
Value Rank
5.5
Quality Rank
8.2
Superior ROE vs peers
GatesA.R:R -0.0=NEGATIVEMomentum 4.8<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 13d<=14d (soft)Momentum 4.8>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
48 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $345.50Resistance $420.50

Price Targets

$365
$412
A.Upside+4.9%
A.R:R-0.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-0.4% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-14 (13d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AMAT stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $392.75, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: limited number of customers; Concentration risk — Geographic: China, Taiwan and Korea. Chart setup: RSI 48 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $412.09 (+4.9%), stop $365.29 (−7.5%), A.R:R -0.0:1. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AMAT stock price target?

Take-profit target: $412.09 (+5.1% upside). Target $412.09 (+4.9%), stop $365.29 (−7.5%), A.R:R -0.0:1. Stop-loss: $365.29.

What are the risks of investing in AMAT?

Concentration risk — Customer: limited number of customers; Concentration risk — Geographic: China, Taiwan and Korea; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is AMAT overvalued or undervalued?

Applied Materials, Inc. trades at a P/E of 40.5 (forward 28.0). TrendMatrix value score: 3.4/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about AMAT?

43 analysts cover AMAT with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $424.

What does Applied Materials, Inc. do?Applied Materials designs, develops, manufactures, and sells semiconductor wafer fabrication equipment and services...

Applied Materials designs, develops, manufactures, and sells semiconductor wafer fabrication equipment and services globally across two segments: Semiconductor Systems (largest) and Applied Global Services. In fiscal 2025, approximately 89% of net revenue came from customers outside the United States, with significant concentration in China, Taiwan, and Korea.

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