Value
4.6/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 3.0 |
| P/S | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 4.7 |
| PEG | 7.8 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 26.5x
- ▸PEG: 0.87
ASML · Why this verdict
Why ASML Holding N.V. - New York Re (ASML) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
ASML is a wide-moat, high-margin semiconductor equipment leader growing 55% year over year with a strong beat record, currently sold off on weak momentum. A 23.0% analyst-target upside against 7.5% downside makes it an accumulate-on-weakness candidate.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Growth is exceptional at 55% year over year, and both revenue and earnings growth score a maximum 10.0. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth should stay above 25% year over year across the next four quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterEquipment orders are lumpy and growth confidence is only 0.67, so a tough comparison could cut the growth rate sharply. | ||
The business is high quality, with a wide economic moat, a return on equity of 66%, margins of 34% and a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9. Quality breakdown | Margins should hold above 30% and return on equity above 50% over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterCash conversion is flagged as a warning at 77% of net income, so reported profits are running ahead of free cash flow. | ||
Earnings show three beats in the last four quarters, with the October 2026 report beating by 9.86% (EPS of $11.82 versus $10.76) and an average surprise of 6.06%. Avg surprise pct | EPS should meet or beat estimates in each of the next four quarters. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe January 2026 quarter missed by 2.72%, and the beats may reflect conservative estimates that the market now expects to be exceeded. | ||
Momentum is very weak at 1.5 out of 10, with RSI at 18 (capitulation risk) and the price below its 200-day average, but the average is still rising at +6.3% per 30 days. Momentum breakdown | The price should stabilize above the $1,396.59 stop level and momentum should recover above 4.5 as selling exhausts. | ↑Improving |
| CounterFalling on-balance volume shows distribution, and an RSI of 18 can stay depressed while a downtrend extends. | ||
The $1,571.80 price is 23.0% below the $1,934.09 analyst target, a reward-to-risk of 3.07 against 7.5% downside to the stop. Upside pct | Price should move toward the $1,934.09 target over 12 months while holding above the $1,396.59 stop level. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA forward P/E of 25.0x and a PEG of 1.98 mean the stock is not cheap, so a growth slowdown could shrink the target as well. | ||
Growth is exceptional at 55% year over year, and both revenue and earnings growth score a maximum 10.0.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth should stay above 25% year over year across the next four quarters.
CounterEquipment orders are lumpy and growth confidence is only 0.67, so a tough comparison could cut the growth rate sharply.
The business is high quality, with a wide economic moat, a return on equity of 66%, margins of 34% and a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Margins should hold above 30% and return on equity above 50% over the next 12 months.
CounterCash conversion is flagged as a warning at 77% of net income, so reported profits are running ahead of free cash flow.
Earnings show three beats in the last four quarters, with the October 2026 report beating by 9.86% (EPS of $11.82 versus $10.76) and an average surprise of 6.06%.
↓DeterioratingAvg surprise pct
- Expectation
- EPS should meet or beat estimates in each of the next four quarters.
CounterThe January 2026 quarter missed by 2.72%, and the beats may reflect conservative estimates that the market now expects to be exceeded.
Momentum is very weak at 1.5 out of 10, with RSI at 18 (capitulation risk) and the price below its 200-day average, but the average is still rising at +6.3% per 30 days.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The price should stabilize above the $1,396.59 stop level and momentum should recover above 4.5 as selling exhausts.
CounterFalling on-balance volume shows distribution, and an RSI of 18 can stay depressed while a downtrend extends.
The $1,571.80 price is 23.0% below the $1,934.09 analyst target, a reward-to-risk of 3.07 against 7.5% downside to the stop.
↑ImprovingUpside pct
- Expectation
- Price should move toward the $1,934.09 target over 12 months while holding above the $1,396.59 stop level.
CounterA forward P/E of 25.0x and a PEG of 1.98 mean the stock is not cheap, so a growth slowdown could shrink the target as well.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
8.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 10.0 |
| Gross margin | 6.9 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.5 |
| FCF quality | 5.8 |
| Moat | 9.0 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 66%
- ▸Strong margins: 34%
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 77% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 55% YoY
Momentum
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 7.7 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 1.4 |
- ▸Uptrend pullback (RSI 38) - buy opportunity
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 3.5 |
| Analyst rating | 8.8 |
| Price target | 8.5 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 29%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
6.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.8 |
| quality rank | 9.0 |
| growth rank | 8.3 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.1 |
| support resistance | 6.5 |
| 52w position | 6.7 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.8 |
| days to cover | 10.0 |
| volatility | 4.1 |
| put call | 7.5 |
| implied vol | 5.3 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 5.8 |
| debt equity | 9.6 |
Catalyst
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.6 |
| dividend safety | 6.8 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.87, quality 8.5/10, growth 10.0/10).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_C2_GARP_WAIT|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (8)
- MOMENTUM:4.6>=4.5
- ASYMMETRY:2.3>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:90d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.6<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
2.27
Upside
+15.7%
Downside
6.9%
Sizing output
STARTER
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.30>1.3
Investment implication
The C-path quality+growth combination triggered the STRONG_BUY_WAIT verdict: quality 8.5 and growth 10.0 both clear their thresholds, with asymmetric R:R of 2.27 supporting the read.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Quality at 8.5, and Risk (lower is worse) at 7.4; the weakest are Momentum at 4.6, Value at 4.6, and Insider at 5.0. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.27 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Wide Moat High Returns
Trip ifOperating margin falls below 25% from current 34%.
- P2Strong Revenue Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 20% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Consistent Earnings Beats
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Oversold Pullback Momentum
Trip ifPrice falls below the $1,396.59 stop level from current $1,571.80.
- P5Analyst Target Upside
Trip ifAnalyst target falls below $1,650 from current $1,934.09.