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ASIXAdvanSix Inc.Sell5.3·$15.51
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

AdvanSix is a cheaply valued chemicals producer, but weak quality, repeated earnings misses and negative momentum outweigh the discount. An 8.2% analyst-target upside against 5.8% downside is a speculative setup at best.

Thesis pillars

  • Negative Price Momentum↑Improving
  • Modest Upside To Target→Stable
  • Weak Business Quality↓Deteriorating
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Oct 24, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 20, 2026

Full reasoning →

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AdvanSix Inc. (ASIX) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup · Sector Rotation edge

SellValueGrowthModerate Confidence

Basic Materials · Chemicals

Earnings in 5 days (2026-11-04). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $15.51: Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10 and A.R:R 1.6:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend.

AdvanSix is an integrated specialty chemicals producer operating five U.S. manufacturing facilities that make Nylon 6 resin and caprolactam, ammonium sulfate fertilizer (plant nutrients), and chemical intermediates such as acetone and phenol, serving building/construction,... Read more

$15.51+9.6% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#10 of 14 Chemicals
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield-3.37%
IncomeYield4.13%(5y avg 1.36%)Payout177.78%at-risk
Stop $14.67Analyst target $17.00(−15% haircut)A.R:R 1.6:1
Analyst consensus$20.00+28.9%2 analysts
$17.00Analyst target
$15.51price
$20.00mean
$22

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $15.51: Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10 and A.R:R 1.6:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 30, MACD bearish. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 5d<=7d. Suitability: speculative.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About AdvanSix Inc.

About AdvanSix Inc.

AdvanSix operates five vertically integrated U.S. manufacturing facilities in Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Alabama, anchored by its Hopewell, Virginia complex, one of the world's largest single-site producers of both caprolactam and ammonium sulfate. The company generated $1,522 million in sales during 2025 led by plant nutrients (37%), chemical intermediates (25%), nylon resin (20%), and caprolactam (18%), serving building and construction, agriculture, and plastics end markets, with 86% of sales domestic to the United States.

AdvanSix sells to approximately 375 customers, converting benzene- and propylene-derived cumene into phenol, acetone, and AMS at its Frankford, Pennsylvania plant, then further processing phenol at Hopewell, Virginia into caprolactam and, ultimately, Aegis-brand Nylon 6 resin at its Chesterfield, Virginia facility; in 2025, approximately 53% of Hopewell's caprolactam output was shipped to Chesterfield for polymerization. The company positions itself as the world's lowest-cost caprolactam producer by combining vertical integration into phenol, ammonia, and sulfuric acid feedstocks with access to low-cost domestic natural gas, a key input for ammonia production, at a time when many overseas competitors face substantially higher energy costs. Ammonium sulfate, generated at roughly four pounds per pound of caprolactam produced, competes as a nitrogen-and-sulfur fertilizer holding about 6% of the global nitrogen fertilizer market but more than 40% of the global sulfur fertilizer market, benefiting from anti-dumping duties on Chinese ammonium sulfate imports through a 2028 sunset review.

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AdvanSix's nylon franchise sits in a soft part of its demand cycle: the 10-K flags continued weak building-and-construction, food-packaging, and automotive-engineering-plastics demand in North America through 2026, even as Chinese Nylon 6 operating rates remain at multi-year highs and continue to push exports into Southeast Asia and other regions. Because nylon resin pricing typically tracks a spread over caprolactam, which itself tracks a spread over benzene-derived phenol and cyclohexane, AdvanSix's margins in that segment depend on regional supply-demand balance holding even as a lower-rate-driven housing recovery remains only a hoped-for catalyst rather than a confirmed one. Plant Nutrients and Chemical Intermediates, which together generated 62% of 2025 sales, provide a structural offset to this nylon-cycle softness that a single-product competitor would not have.

See also: Basic Materials · Chemicals

From AdvanSix Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-10-29

Recent Developments — AdvanSix Inc.

Generated 2026-10-29T11:08:50Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Nov 4, 20265d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)—
P/E (Fwd)6.5
Mkt Cap$419M
EV/EBITDA8.7
Profit Mgn-1.1%
ROE-2.2%
Rev Growth2.7%
Beta1.34
Dividend4.13%
Rating analysts8

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.16bullish
IV110%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

Show full disclosure ▾

About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Cyclical trough — margins compressed or negative. Profitability typically recovers with the cycle, but floor fires on current data.static

Roe
0.0
Gross Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Roa
0.3
Operating Margin
0.9
Moat
3.9
Current Ratio
4.8
Piotroski F
6.7
Cash-burning: FCF -1% of revenueNo competitive moatQuality concerns

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
3.2
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
2.4
Dividend Safety
4.3
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
5.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3MEarnings in 5 daysYield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
GatesMomentum 4.2<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 5d<=7dA.R:R 1.6 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Speculative
RSI
30 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $15.12Resistance $16.91

Price Targets

$15
$17
A.Upside+9.6%
A.R:R1.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0)
! momentum at 4.2 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-04 (5d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ASIX stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $15.51: Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10 and A.R:R 1.6:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 30, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $14.67. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ASIX stock price target?

Analyst target: $17.00 (+9.6% upside). Prior stop was $14.67. Stop-loss: $14.67.

What are the risks of investing in ASIX?

Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0).

Is ASIX overvalued or undervalued?

AdvanSix Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 6.5). TrendMatrix value score: 9.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ASIX?

8 analysts cover ASIX with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $20.

What does AdvanSix Inc. do?AdvanSix is an integrated specialty chemicals producer operating five U.S. manufacturing facilities that make Nylon 6...

AdvanSix is an integrated specialty chemicals producer operating five U.S. manufacturing facilities that make Nylon 6 resin and caprolactam, ammonium sulfate fertilizer (plant nutrients), and chemical intermediates such as acetone and phenol, serving building/construction, agriculture, plastics, and packaging end markets. The company generated $1,522 million in sales and $49 million in net income in 2025, with plant nutrients the largest product line at 37% of sales, 86% of sales domestic to the U.S., and its Hopewell, Virginia facility ranking as the world's largest single-site producer of bo

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