Value
8.4/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 2.1 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.7 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 7.2x
- ▸PEG: 0.01
- ▸Attractively valued
ASIX · Why this verdict
Why AdvanSix (ASIX) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
AdvanSix's quality score of 2.1 sits below the engine's 4.0 floor, driven by a red-flagged FCF-to-net-income ratio of -216% despite a strong Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9. Quality breakdown | The quality score improves toward the 4.0 floor as free cash flow conversion recovers from the current -216% of net income. | →Stable |
| CounterA strong 7-of-9 Piotroski F-Score suggests underlying balance-sheet and profitability trends are actually improving, which could pull the composite quality score up even if the FCF/NI ratio stays depressed. | ||
AdvanSix trades at a 6.9x forward P/E with a 0.01 PEG, which the value model flags as attractively valued. Valuation breakdown | The value score, currently 8.5, holds as the multiple stays cheap relative to peers. | →Stable |
| CounterThe V8 layer already flags the analyst target as reached with -1.6% upside, meaning the cheap multiple may not translate into further price appreciation from current levels. | ||
The catalyst notes flag a yield-trap warning, indicating the dividend yield looks high but is considered unsafe given the underlying dividend-safety score of 4.2. Catalyst breakdown | The dividend-safety score improves above the current 4.2 level, or the payout is cut before it becomes a larger problem. | →Stable |
| CounterA dividend-safety score of 4.2 is a model estimate; the company could maintain the payout if chemical-cycle earnings recover faster than the model currently assumes. | ||
The V9 asymmetry gate failed at -0.18, and the V8 layer separately flags the analyst target as already reached with -1.6% implied upside. Warnings | The risk/reward profile turns positive as either the price pulls back to a better entry or the analyst target is revised higher. | →Stable |
| CounterA mixed earnings record of 2 beats and 2 misses over the last 4 quarters means the next print could easily surprise to the upside and shift sentiment. | ||
Short interest sits at a high level with implied volatility at 72%, both flagged in the risk model as elevated for a chemicals name. Risk breakdown | Short interest and implied volatility decline as the range-bound setup resolves into a clearer trend. | →Stable |
| CounterHigh short interest combined with a range-bound setup can instead set up a short squeeze if the stock breaks out to the upside, which would work against the bearish risk read. | ||
AdvanSix's quality score of 2.1 sits below the engine's 4.0 floor, driven by a red-flagged FCF-to-net-income ratio of -216% despite a strong Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The quality score improves toward the 4.0 floor as free cash flow conversion recovers from the current -216% of net income.
CounterA strong 7-of-9 Piotroski F-Score suggests underlying balance-sheet and profitability trends are actually improving, which could pull the composite quality score up even if the FCF/NI ratio stays depressed.
AdvanSix trades at a 6.9x forward P/E with a 0.01 PEG, which the value model flags as attractively valued.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The value score, currently 8.5, holds as the multiple stays cheap relative to peers.
CounterThe V8 layer already flags the analyst target as reached with -1.6% upside, meaning the cheap multiple may not translate into further price appreciation from current levels.
The catalyst notes flag a yield-trap warning, indicating the dividend yield looks high but is considered unsafe given the underlying dividend-safety score of 4.2.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The dividend-safety score improves above the current 4.2 level, or the payout is cut before it becomes a larger problem.
CounterA dividend-safety score of 4.2 is a model estimate; the company could maintain the payout if chemical-cycle earnings recover faster than the model currently assumes.
The V9 asymmetry gate failed at -0.18, and the V8 layer separately flags the analyst target as already reached with -1.6% implied upside.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- The risk/reward profile turns positive as either the price pulls back to a better entry or the analyst target is revised higher.
CounterA mixed earnings record of 2 beats and 2 misses over the last 4 quarters means the next print could easily surprise to the upside and shift sentiment.
Short interest sits at a high level with implied volatility at 72%, both flagged in the risk model as elevated for a chemicals name.
→StableRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- Short interest and implied volatility decline as the range-bound setup resolves into a clearer trend.
CounterHigh short interest combined with a range-bound setup can instead set up a short squeeze if the stock breaks out to the upside, which would work against the bearish risk read.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
AdvanSix trades at a cheap multiple with a strong balance-sheet score, but weak free-cash-flow conversion keeps quality below the engine's floor, and a yield-trap warning plus a failed asymmetry gate temper the near-term risk/reward.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.4 |
| ROA | 0.9 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.3 |
| Current ratio | 4.7 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 5.0 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -216% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
4.2/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.2 |
Momentum
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 8.3 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 1.7 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 7.1 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 9.9 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.7 |
| quality rank | 6.9 |
| growth rank | 6.7 |
Technical
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.2 |
| support resistance | 6.0 |
| 52w position | 5.4 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.8 |
| days to cover | 7.9 |
| volatility | 3.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.1 |
| beta | 5.8 |
| debt equity | 7.8 |
- ▸High IV: 80%
Catalyst
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 3.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.9>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:30d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.3=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.32
Upside
-2.5%
Downside
7.8%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 43 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.6B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.30>1.3, MCap $0.6B<$5B
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Value at 8.4 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: ASYMMETRY:-0.3=NEGATIVE.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.4, Insider at 7.3, and Risk (lower is worse) at 6.2; the weakest are Quality at 2.1, Growth at 4.2, and Catalyst at 5.3. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.32 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Quality Below Engine Floor
Trip ifFCF-to-net-income ratio stays below -100% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Attractively Valued Cheap Multiple
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 12x from the current 6.9x.
- P3Yield Trap Warning
Trip ifDividend-safety score falls below 3.0 from the current 4.2, or the dividend is cut.
- P4Target Reached Negative Asymmetry
Trip ifAsymmetry ratio falls below -1.0, down from the current -0.18.
- P5Elevated Short Interest And Volatility
Trip ifImplied volatility falls below 40% from the current 72%, or short interest falls below 5%.