Value
9.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.8 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 6.5x
- ▸PEG: 0.01
- ▸Attractively valued
ASIX · Why this verdict
Why AdvanSix (ASIX) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
AdvanSix is a cheaply valued chemicals producer, but weak quality, repeated earnings misses and negative momentum outweigh the discount. An 8.2% analyst-target upside against 5.8% downside is a speculative setup at best.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Momentum is weak at 3.9 out of 10, with the price below its 200-day average and RSI of 3.5 out of 10 on the scoring scale. Momentum breakdown | Momentum score should recover above 4.5 as the price reclaims its 200-day average. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe 200-day average is still rising (+0.2% per 30 days), so this may be a pullback in an uptrend rather than confirmed weakness. | ||
The $15.71 price is 8.2% below the $17.00 analyst target, against 5.8% downside to the stop, a reward-to-risk of 1.43. Upside pct | Price should advance toward the $17.00 target without breaking the $14.81 stop level over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe earnings record and a quality score of 1.8 make the target hard to trust, and implied volatility of 67% means the stop can be hit first. | ||
Business quality is weak: the quality score of 1.8 is below the 4.0 floor, with free cash flow at -1% of revenue and no competitive moat. Bear case | Quality score should rise toward 4.0 and free cash flow should turn positive over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterChemicals earnings are cyclical, so thin margins and slightly negative free cash flow may reverse when the cycle turns; the Piotroski score is still 6.7. | ||
Earnings delivery is poor: three misses and one beat in the last four quarters, with the latest quarter missing by 65.77% (EPS of $0.19 versus $0.56). Miss count | EPS should meet or beat estimates in the next two quarters, ending the run of misses. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe February 2026 quarter beat by 150% and results swing around zero EPS, so the surprise percentages exaggerate a small-dollar difference. | ||
The stock is attractively valued, with a forward P/E of 6.6x and a PEG of 0.01, and a value score of 9.3 out of 10. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E should stay under about 10x as earnings recover, so the discount reflects the cycle rather than permanent damage. | →Stable |
| CounterThe multiple is low because earnings are depressed, and a 40% drawdown from the 52-week high shows the market expects further weakness. | ||
Momentum is weak at 3.9 out of 10, with the price below its 200-day average and RSI of 3.5 out of 10 on the scoring scale.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum score should recover above 4.5 as the price reclaims its 200-day average.
CounterThe 200-day average is still rising (+0.2% per 30 days), so this may be a pullback in an uptrend rather than confirmed weakness.
The $15.71 price is 8.2% below the $17.00 analyst target, against 5.8% downside to the stop, a reward-to-risk of 1.43.
→StableUpside pct
- Expectation
- Price should advance toward the $17.00 target without breaking the $14.81 stop level over 12 months.
CounterThe earnings record and a quality score of 1.8 make the target hard to trust, and implied volatility of 67% means the stop can be hit first.
Business quality is weak: the quality score of 1.8 is below the 4.0 floor, with free cash flow at -1% of revenue and no competitive moat.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Quality score should rise toward 4.0 and free cash flow should turn positive over the next 12 months.
CounterChemicals earnings are cyclical, so thin margins and slightly negative free cash flow may reverse when the cycle turns; the Piotroski score is still 6.7.
Earnings delivery is poor: three misses and one beat in the last four quarters, with the latest quarter missing by 65.77% (EPS of $0.19 versus $0.56).
↑ImprovingMiss count
- Expectation
- EPS should meet or beat estimates in the next two quarters, ending the run of misses.
CounterThe February 2026 quarter beat by 150% and results swing around zero EPS, so the surprise percentages exaggerate a small-dollar difference.
The stock is attractively valued, with a forward P/E of 6.6x and a PEG of 0.01, and a value score of 9.3 out of 10.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E should stay under about 10x as earnings recover, so the discount reflects the cycle rather than permanent damage.
CounterThe multiple is low because earnings are depressed, and a 40% drawdown from the 52-week high shows the market expects further weakness.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
1.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.3 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 0.9 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.8 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 3.9 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Cash-burning: FCF -1% of revenue
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
3.2/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.2 |
Momentum
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 3.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 1.5 |
| Volume | 2.8 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope flat
Sentiment
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.5 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 8.5 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.50 (n=1)
- ▸Analyst upside: 29%
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.1 |
| quality rank | 5.5 |
| growth rank | 1.5 |
Technical
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.5 |
| support resistance | 7.8 |
| 52w position | 1.8 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.8 |
| days to cover | 8.6 |
| volatility | 5.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 5.6 |
| debt equity | 7.8 |
- ▸High IV: 110%
Catalyst
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 2.4 |
| dividend safety | 4.3 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
- ▸Earnings in 5 days
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:1.6>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:4.2<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:5d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
1.61
Upside
+9.6%
Downside
6.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupFalling Knife — Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 30, MACD bearish
EdgeSector Rotation — Basic Materials sector out of favor, value=9.3
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -41% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 4.2<4.5 outcome against Value at 9.3 and asymmetric R:R of 1.61.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.3, Insider at 7.3, and Sentiment at 6.9; the weakest are Quality at 1.8, Growth at 3.2, and Catalyst at 3.6. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.61 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Weak Business Quality
Trip ifQuality score rises above 4.0 from current 1.8.
- P2Repeated Earnings Misses
Trip ifEPS surprise exceeds 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Deep Value Pricing
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 12x from current 6.6x.
- P4Negative Price Momentum
Trip ifMomentum score rises above 4.5 from current 3.9.
- P5Modest Upside To Target
Trip ifPrice falls below the $14.81 stop level from current $15.71.