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APGAPi Group CorporationSell5.6·$43.68+3.51%
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APi Group Corporation (APG) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Industrials · Engineering & Construction

Sell if holding. At $43.68, A.R:R 0.7:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 6.0%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.7).

APi Group is a global business services provider of fire and life safety, security, elevator/escalator, and specialty services with 500+ locations in 20+ countries across two reportable segments: Safety Services and Specialty Services. Revenue is highly recurring via... Read more

$43.68+6.0% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#12 of 30 Engineering & Construction
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield3.92%
Stop $41.36Target $46.28(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.7:1
Analyst target$53.20+21.8%10 analysts
$46.28our TP
$43.68price
$53.20mean
$56

Sell if holding. At $43.68, A.R:R 0.7:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 6.0%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.7). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 50d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About APi Group Corporation

About APi Group Corporation

APi Group Corporation's two segments — Safety Services (fire protection, electronic security, and elevator/escalator services) and Specialty Services (specialty contracting and infrastructure work) — operated across more than 500 locations in over 20 countries in 2025, with a significant union labor force in the U.S. and subcontract labor internationally. The company completed 140 acquisitions since 2005 and carried $3,167 million in goodwill at December 31, 2025. No single customer accounted for more than 5% of total net revenues in 2025.

APi Group earns recurring revenue through an inspection-first go-to-market strategy: the 10-K estimates that every dollar of inspection work sold generates follow-on service revenue, and nearly all facilities with existing life safety systems are required by law to have inspections on at least an annual basis. Master service agreements and recurring inspection contracts provide a base of revenues less sensitive to economic cycles than project-based peers. Capital expenditures are typically less than 1.5% of total net revenues, reflecting the asset-light model; the significant union labor force in the U.S. and subcontract labor internationally allow APi Group to flex workforce capacity in downturns. Supply for piping, steel, sheet metal, fire suppression components, and elevator/escalator parts comes from multiple sources. At December 31, 2025, the company held $2,157 million in credit facility debt, $614 million in senior notes, and $1,840 million notional in interest rate swap agreements that exchange variable for fixed rates.

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APi Group's primary execution risk is a multi-year ERP implementation begun in 2024, designed to harmonize legacy systems across acquired businesses on 'a worldwide basis over the next few years.' ERP transitions of this scope carry risks to internal control over financial reporting: the 10-K explicitly notes that if implementations experience difficulties, internal control over financial reporting could be adversely affected. The rollout compounds the inherent integration complexity of a platform that has executed 140 acquisitions over two decades, adding systems-harmonization overhead to ongoing M&A integration and potentially delaying realization of operational efficiencies.

See also: Industrials · Engineering & Construction

From APi Group Corporation's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-09
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 30, 202650d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong growth profile
Positive momentum
Risks
Thin upside margin: 6.0%
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.7)
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)21.8
Mkt Cap$18.3B
EV/EBITDA20.0
Profit Mgn4.0%
ROE10.0%
Rev Growth15.3%
Beta1.61
DividendNone
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.17bullish
IV58%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
2.7
Value Rank
3.0
Growth Rank
4.3

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.9
Support Resistance
1.4
Gap
5.0
52w Position
7.5
GatesA.R:R 0.7 < 1.5@spotMomentum 7.4>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 50d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
66 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $39.74Resistance $44.32

Price Targets

$41
$46
A.Upside+6.0%
A.R:R0.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! asymmetry at 0.7 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (50d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is APG stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $43.68, A.R:R 0.7:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 6.0%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.7). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $41.36. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the APG stock price target?

Take-profit target: $46.28 (+6.0% upside). Prior stop was $41.36. Stop-loss: $41.36.

What are the risks of investing in APG?

Thin upside margin: 6.0%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.7); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.

Is APG overvalued or undervalued?

APi Group Corporation trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 21.8). TrendMatrix value score: 6.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about APG?

14 analysts cover APG with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $53.

What does APi Group Corporation do?APi Group is a global business services provider of fire and life safety, security, elevator/escalator, and specialty...

APi Group is a global business services provider of fire and life safety, security, elevator/escalator, and specialty services with 500+ locations in 20+ countries across two reportable segments: Safety Services and Specialty Services. Revenue is highly recurring via inspection-first contracts; no single customer accounts for more than 5% of total net revenues.

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