Value
6.3/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 8.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.2 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 20.7x
- ▸PEG: 0.29
APG · Why this verdict
Why APi Group (APG) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score5.7/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
APG has delivered three beats in four quarters, strong growth, and exceptional free cash flow conversion of 221% of net income, with analysts pointing to roughly 28% upside potential and a reward-to-risk geometry that clears the asymmetry threshold at 1.7-to-1; the primary risk is an elevated beta above 1.6 combined with implied volatility near 94%, which can amplify drawdowns in a risk-off tape even when the underlying fundamentals remain sound.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The business has demonstrated a strong growth profile with a high earnings growth score, three beats in four quarters, and a PEG of 0.31 that suggests the market is not yet fully pricing in the earnings trajectory—positioning the stock as growth available at a reasonable price. Bull case | Revenue and earnings growth remain in the strong category and the PEG ratio stays below 0.5 over the next four quarters, confirming the market continues to undervalue the growth runway. | →Stable |
| CounterA single in-line quarter (2025-10-30) interrupts an otherwise positive sequence; if the growth rate moderates more broadly, the current PEG-based thesis could unravel quickly, particularly given a beta above 1.6 that amplifies any deceleration signal. | ||
Free cash flow is running at 221% of net income—well above the level where earnings and cash generation are aligned—indicating that reported profits are backed by genuine cash and that the business has meaningful flexibility for reinvestment, buybacks, or debt reduction. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow conversion remains above 150% of net income for at least three of the next four quarters, confirming the cash generation quality is durable rather than episodic. | →Stable |
| CounterFCF conversion materially above 100% can reflect timing differences in working capital or deferred items rather than structural superiority; a normalization toward 100% in coming quarters would not necessarily signal a problem but would eliminate the conversion premium in the thesis. | ||
Analysts covering the stock point to approximately 28% upside to their consensus target, and the sentiment score reflects a high conviction rating, with the reward-to-risk ratio at roughly 1.7-to-1 clearing the asymmetry threshold—giving the setup an identifiable edge from a risk/reward perspective. Sentiment breakdown | Analyst consensus price target remains above $46 (roughly 10% above current price) over the next two quarters and at least one positive estimate revision is issued within six months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe analyst coverage base is relatively light (noted as 10 analysts with a dampened signal), meaning the consensus target is less statistically robust than a broader coverage set and a single revision by a key firm could shift the consensus meaningfully. | ||
A beta above 1.6 and implied volatility near 94% mean the stock is highly sensitive to broad market moves—any risk-off episode or sector rotation could drive a drawdown materially larger than the underlying business fundamentals would warrant. Risk breakdown | Implied volatility falls below 50% and beta stabilizes below 1.3 over the next two quarters, indicating the volatility premium is compressing as market participants gain confidence in the business trajectory. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterHigh volatility can be a feature rather than a flaw for an aggressive-profile position: larger swings create more attractive entry points, and a high-beta name outperforms in risk-on rallies, which can deliver outsized gains if the growth thesis plays out. | ||
The business has demonstrated a strong growth profile with a high earnings growth score, three beats in four quarters, and a PEG of 0.31 that suggests the market is not yet fully pricing in the earnings trajectory—positioning the stock as growth available at a reasonable price.
→StableBull case
- Expectation
- Revenue and earnings growth remain in the strong category and the PEG ratio stays below 0.5 over the next four quarters, confirming the market continues to undervalue the growth runway.
CounterA single in-line quarter (2025-10-30) interrupts an otherwise positive sequence; if the growth rate moderates more broadly, the current PEG-based thesis could unravel quickly, particularly given a beta above 1.6 that amplifies any deceleration signal.
Free cash flow is running at 221% of net income—well above the level where earnings and cash generation are aligned—indicating that reported profits are backed by genuine cash and that the business has meaningful flexibility for reinvestment, buybacks, or debt reduction.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow conversion remains above 150% of net income for at least three of the next four quarters, confirming the cash generation quality is durable rather than episodic.
CounterFCF conversion materially above 100% can reflect timing differences in working capital or deferred items rather than structural superiority; a normalization toward 100% in coming quarters would not necessarily signal a problem but would eliminate the conversion premium in the thesis.
Analysts covering the stock point to approximately 28% upside to their consensus target, and the sentiment score reflects a high conviction rating, with the reward-to-risk ratio at roughly 1.7-to-1 clearing the asymmetry threshold—giving the setup an identifiable edge from a risk/reward perspective.
↑ImprovingSentiment breakdown
- Expectation
- Analyst consensus price target remains above $46 (roughly 10% above current price) over the next two quarters and at least one positive estimate revision is issued within six months.
CounterThe analyst coverage base is relatively light (noted as 10 analysts with a dampened signal), meaning the consensus target is less statistically robust than a broader coverage set and a single revision by a key firm could shift the consensus meaningfully.
A beta above 1.6 and implied volatility near 94% mean the stock is highly sensitive to broad market moves—any risk-off episode or sector rotation could drive a drawdown materially larger than the underlying business fundamentals would warrant.
↓DeterioratingRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- Implied volatility falls below 50% and beta stabilizes below 1.3 over the next two quarters, indicating the volatility premium is compressing as market participants gain confidence in the business trajectory.
CounterHigh volatility can be a feature rather than a flaw for an aggressive-profile position: larger swings create more attractive entry points, and a high-beta name outperforms in risk-on rallies, which can deliver outsized gains if the growth thesis plays out.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.4 |
| ROA | 3.3 |
| Gross margin | 2.3 |
| Op margin | 3.6 |
| Net margin | 2.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.2 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 4.9 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 187% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
6.4/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.8 |
| EPS growth | 7.0 |
Momentum
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.9 |
| MACD | 8.1 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.5 |
| Volume | 6.3 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope flat
Sentiment
7.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.0 |
| Analyst rating | 8.3 |
| Price target | 8.3 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.40 (n=2)
- ▸Analyst upside: 27%
Insider
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $26,354,032 (0.148% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
3.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.1 |
| quality rank | 3.8 |
| growth rank | 3.4 |
Technical
2.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.4 |
| support resistance | 0.8 |
| 52w position | 6.5 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.5 |
| days to cover | 7.5 |
| volatility | 6.6 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 3.4 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 4.7 |
| debt equity | 4.8 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 630.00
- ▸Above max pain $33
Catalyst
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.6 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
- ▸Earnings today
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Earnings today. Wait until post-earnings.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L3:NEWS_BLOCK|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:7.0>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_BOOST:EARNINGS:0.60
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:1.3<1.5@spot
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:0d<=7d
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=7.0>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
1.33
Upside
+10.4%
Downside
7.8%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 61
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.58>1.3
Investment implication
A recent news event triggered an L3 news-block on the verdict path. Trigger: Earnings today. Wait until post-earnings. The 10-dimension scores remain Sentiment at 7.9 (strongest), but ASYMMETRY:1.3<1.5@spot also fails — the news block is the proximate trigger, not the sole driver.
The strongest dimensions are Sentiment at 7.9, Momentum at 7.0, and Growth at 6.4; the weakest are Technical at 2.6, Peer rank at 3.5, and Quality at 4.7. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.33 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Growth Profile
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 5% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters, signaling the growth profile has deteriorated.
- P2Exceptional Free Cash Flow Conversion
Trip ifFree cash flow conversion falls below 100% of net income for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Strong Analyst Conviction
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target falls below $46.00, reducing upside to less than 10% from current price of $41.66.
- P4Elevated Volatility Amplifies Drawdowns
Trip ifImplied volatility falls below 50% for 2 consecutive months, confirming volatility compression and removing the elevated-drawdown risk.