A.O. Smith Corporation (AOS) Stock Analysis
Falling Knife setup
Industrials · Specialty Industrial Machinery
Sell if holding. Momentum 1.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $60.34 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Weak overall score: 4.9/10; Weak growth.
A.O. Smith manufactures residential and commercial water heaters, boilers, heat pumps, and water treatment products through North America (78% of 2025 sales) and Rest of World segments (primarily China, India, Europe). The company is the largest manufacturer and marketer of... Read more
Sell if holding. Momentum 1.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $60.34 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Weak overall score: 4.9/10; Weak growth. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 23, MACD bearish. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- LOWGeographicChina18%10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 18 percent of our sales in 2025 were attributable to China'
- MEDIUMCustomertop-5 customers41%10-K Item 1A: 'Sales to our five largest customers represented approximately 41 percent of our sales in 2025'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Revenue shrinking — -1.9% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 1.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $60.34 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Weak overall score: 4.9/10; Weak growth. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 23, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $58.04. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $68.12 (+13.2% upside). Prior stop was $58.04. Stop-loss: $58.04.
Weak overall score: 4.9/10; Weak growth; Negative momentum.
A.O. Smith Corporation trades at a P/E of 16.5 (forward 14.3). TrendMatrix value score: 6.9/10. Verdict: Sell.
18 analysts cover AOS with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $78.
What does A.O. Smith Corporation do?A.O. Smith manufactures residential and commercial water heaters, boilers, heat pumps, and water treatment products...
A.O. Smith manufactures residential and commercial water heaters, boilers, heat pumps, and water treatment products through North America (78% of 2025 sales) and Rest of World segments (primarily China, India, Europe). The company is the largest manufacturer and marketer of water heaters in North America, with brands A.O. Smith, State, Lochinvar, and Aquasana. China represented approximately 18% of 2025 sales, and the top five customers represented approximately 41% of total sales.