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AOSA.O. Smith CorporationSell5.1·$59.08+0.72%
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A.O. Smith Corporation (AOS) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellModerate Confidence

Industrials · Specialty Industrial Machinery

Sell if holding. At $59.08, A.R:R 0.5:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 3.7%; Concentration risk — Geographic: North America (78.0%).

A. O. Smith manufactures residential and commercial water heaters, boilers, and water treatment products through two segments — North America (78% of 2025 sales) and Rest of World (22%, primarily China, India, and Europe). The company employs approximately 11,500 people and... Read more

$59.08+3.8% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#33 of 48 Specialty Industrial Machinery
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield6.13%
IncomeYield2.42%(5y avg 1.77%)Payout37.33%sustainable
Stop $56.34Target $61.30(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.5:1
Analyst target$70.45+19.3%11 analysts
$61.30our TP
$59.08price
$70.45mean
$84

Sell if holding. At $59.08, A.R:R 0.5:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 3.7%; Concentration risk — Geographic: North America (78.0%). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 58. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 47d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-12

Recent Developments — A.O. Smith Corporation

Material events (past 30 days)

  • 8K May 19, 2026 MEDIUM Item 5.02: CFO Charles T. Lauber to retire; Carrie Anderson appointed EVP and CFO effective July 1, 2026. Anderson previously served as CFO at The Campbell's Company (Jan 2023–Oct 2025) and Integra LifeSciences (June 2019–Jan 2023). Lauber to remain temporarily to facilitate transition.

Generated 2026-06-15T18:11:46Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 30, 202647d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: North America (78.0%)
Thin upside margin: 3.7%
Weak growth

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)15.6
P/E (Fwd)14.1
Mkt Cap$8.1B
EV/EBITDA10.7
Profit Mgn13.8%
ROE28.3%
Rev Growth-1.9%
Beta1.18
Dividend2.42%
Rating analysts18

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.63bullish
IV48%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicNorth America78%
    10-K Item 1: 'Sales in our North America segment accounted for approximately 78 percent of our total sales in 2025'
  • MEDIUMCustomertop-5 customers41%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Sales to our five largest customers represented approximately 41 percent of our sales in 2025'
  • LOWGeographicChina18%
    10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 18 percent of our sales in 2025 were attributable to China'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-19Item 5.02MEDIUM
    CFO Charles T. Lauber to retire; Carrie Anderson appointed EVP and CFO effective July 1, 2026. Anderson previously served as CFO at The Campbell's Company (Jan 2023–Oct 2025) and Integra LifeSciences (June 2019–Jan 2023). Lauber to remain temporarily to facilitate transition.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -1.9% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
2.0
Declining revenue: -2%

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.4
Support Resistance
1.0
52w Position
4.5
GatesA.R:R 0.5 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 6.4>=5.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 47d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
58 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $54.16Resistance $59.62

Price Targets

$56
$61
A.Upside+3.8%
A.R:R0.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! asymmetry at 0.5 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (47d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AOS stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $59.08, A.R:R 0.5:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 3.7%; Concentration risk — Geographic: North America (78.0%). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 58. Prior stop was $56.34. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AOS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $61.30 (+3.8% upside). Prior stop was $56.34. Stop-loss: $56.34.

What are the risks of investing in AOS?

Concentration risk — Geographic: North America (78.0%); Thin upside margin: 3.7%; Weak growth.

Is AOS overvalued or undervalued?

A.O. Smith Corporation trades at a P/E of 15.6 (forward 14.1). TrendMatrix value score: 6.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AOS?

18 analysts cover AOS with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $70.

What does A.O. Smith Corporation do?A. O. Smith manufactures residential and commercial water heaters, boilers, and water treatment products through two...

A. O. Smith manufactures residential and commercial water heaters, boilers, and water treatment products through two segments — North America (78% of 2025 sales) and Rest of World (22%, primarily China, India, and Europe). The company employs approximately 11,500 people and distributes through roughly 800 wholesale plumbing distributors, retail chains including an exclusive Lowe's relationship, and e-commerce channels.

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