Value
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.8 |
| P/S | 8.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.3 |
| PEG | 5.0 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 14.1x
- ▸PEG: 1.54
AOS · Why this verdict
Why A.O. Smith (AOS) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 9.4 |
| ROA | 8.5 |
| Gross margin | 3.8 |
| Op margin | 6.8 |
| Net margin | 6.9 |
| Current ratio | 5.7 |
| FCF quality | 6.7 |
| Moat | 5.8 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 28%
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
1.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.0 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -2%
Momentum
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 3.5 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.7%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.8 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 7.6 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.55 (n=1)
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.7 |
| quality rank | 7.9 |
| growth rank | 0.9 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
2.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.4 |
| support resistance | 1.0 |
| 52w position | 4.5 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.2 |
| days to cover | 6.7 |
| volatility | 6.7 |
| put call | 9.1 |
| implied vol | 5.3 |
| beta | 6.3 |
| debt equity | 8.6 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.5 |
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Dividend: 242.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.4>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:47d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.5<1.5@spot
Warning (2)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=6.4>=5.0 recovering
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
0.45
Upside
+3.7%
Downside
8.3%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRECOVERY — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 58
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.1 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Risk (lower is worse) at 7.0) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:0.5<1.5@spot) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.45 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Risk (lower is worse) at 7.0, Quality at 6.8, and Sentiment at 6.7; the weakest are Growth at 1.0, Technical at 2.0, and Peer rank at 4.4. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.45 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.