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AMRZAmrize LtdSell5.3·$40.52+0.20%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Despite a technically constructive breakout pattern, three earnings misses in the last four quarters — including an average negative surprise of roughly 21% — and an options market skewed heavily toward downside protection make this a low-conviction setup that favors the sidelines until execution improves.

Thesis pillars

  • Extreme Put Call Options SkewDeteriorating
  • Breakout Technical SetupStable
  • Persistent Earnings Miss PatternStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

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Amrize Ltd (AMRZ) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellQualityModerate Confidence

Basic Materials · Building Materials

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.6/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $40.52 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9); Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1.

Amrize Ltd, spun off from Holcim in June 2025, sells cement, aggregates, ready-mix concrete and asphalt (Building Materials) plus advanced roofing and wall systems (Building Envelope) to more than 23,000 customers across North American infrastructure, commercial and residential... Read more

$40.52+24.6% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#9 of 14 Building Materials
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield5.12%
IncomeYield0.95%Payout0.00%sustainable
Stop $38.55Target $50.49(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 4.3:1
Analyst target$56.10+38.5%20 analysts
$50.49our TP
$40.52price
$56.10mean
$70

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.6/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $40.52 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9); Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 23, MACD bearish. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 44d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Amrize Ltd

About Amrize Ltd

Amrize Ltd operates more than 1,000 production sites across the United States, Canada, Colombia, Switzerland, and Jamaica, serving over 23,000 customers with products spanning cement, aggregates, ready-mix concrete, asphalt, and advanced roofing and wall systems — completing its spin-off from Holcim on June 23, 2025. Building Materials and Building Envelope are the company's two reportable segments, together addressing North American infrastructure, commercial and residential new construction as well as repair and refurbishment activities. The company employs more than 19,000 people, approximately 6,200 of whom work under collective bargaining agreements.

Amrize earns revenue across two distinct cost and competitive structures. Building Materials derives income from cement, aggregates and ready-mix concrete sold to home builders, commercial builders, contractors and government authorities; the cement market is highly localized due to high transportation costs relative to product price, with Cemex, Buzzi-Unicem, Heidelberg Materials and CRH as principal U.S. competitors. Building Envelope — which grew through acquisitions including Duro-Last (2023) and Malarkey (2022) — sells branded roofing and wall systems through a few large distributors into both new construction and the more recession-resistant repair and refurbishment market. The Building Envelope segment depends on petroleum-based products, chemicals, resins, asphalt, and glass fiber, making raw material cost volatility a meaningful input risk. In Canada, the company's cement operations are subject to a cap-and-trade carbon tax applied directly to oil and gas emissions, creating a jurisdiction-specific cost layer not present in its U.S. facilities.

Show full overview

Energy and fuel costs represent the most quantifiable input risk across both segments: diesel fuel, natural gas, electricity, coal, petroleum coke and liquid asphalt are all listed as material cost inputs in the 10-K. If third-party energy suppliers fail to provide contractual quantities, the company may need to source at increased cost; any government tightening of clean-energy obligations or excise taxes on carbon emissions exposes the company to higher operating costs. In March 2026, Amrize appointed Baris Oran as Chief Financial Officer, effective April 1, 2026, succeeding Ian Johnston who remained with the company as a senior advisor through the transition.

See also: Basic Materials · Building Materials

From Amrize Ltd's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-13
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Oct 27, 202644d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Analyst upside: 25%
Risks
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9)
Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1
Consecutive earnings misses (3)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)18.2
P/E (Fwd)13.5
Mkt Cap$22.2B
EV/EBITDA9.9
Profit Mgn10.1%
ROE9.7%
Rev Growth8.6%
Beta
Dividend0.95%
Rating analysts28

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C2.00bearish
IV37%normal
Max Pain$60+48.1% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMSupplierpetroleum-based products and commodities (Building Envelope)
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our Building Envelope segment requires a different set of raw materials, with a large dependency on petroleum-based products, chemicals, resins, asphalt, glass fiber, granules'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-31Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Baris Oran appointed CFO of Amrize, effective April 1, 2026, succeeding Ian Johnston who steps down and remains as senior advisor for a smooth transition. Oran most recently served as CFO of GXO Logistics from August 2021 to March 2026. No disagreement cited.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.5
Volume
2.5
Rsi
3.0
Capitulation risk (RSI 23, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope flat
GatesMomentum 1.6<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentA.R:R 4.3 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 44d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Moderate
RSI
23 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $39.74Resistance $46.81

Price Targets

$39
$50
A.Upside+24.6%
A.R:R4.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 1.6 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-27 (44d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AMRZ stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.6/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $40.52 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9); Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 23, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $38.55. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AMRZ stock price target?

Take-profit target: $50.49 (+24.6% upside). Prior stop was $38.55. Stop-loss: $38.55.

What are the risks of investing in AMRZ?

V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9); Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1; Consecutive earnings misses (3).

Is AMRZ overvalued or undervalued?

Amrize Ltd trades at a P/E of 18.2 (forward 13.5). TrendMatrix value score: 7.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AMRZ?

28 analysts cover AMRZ with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $56.

What does Amrize Ltd do?Amrize Ltd, spun off from Holcim in June 2025, sells cement, aggregates, ready-mix concrete and asphalt (Building...

Amrize Ltd, spun off from Holcim in June 2025, sells cement, aggregates, ready-mix concrete and asphalt (Building Materials) plus advanced roofing and wall systems (Building Envelope) to more than 23,000 customers across North American infrastructure, commercial and residential construction markets. The company operates more than 1,000 sites with over 19,000 employees across the U.S., Canada, Colombia, Switzerland, and Jamaica.

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