Amcor shows 77% revenue growth year-over-year and recovering price momentum, but free cash flow is converting at only 22% of net income, business quality sits at the minimum-threshold floor, a put/call ratio of 3.17 signals elevated institutional hedging demand, and dual concentration in flexible packaging and developed markets limits diversification — the position warrants an exit until quality and cash conversion improve.
Thesis pillars
- Poor Free Cash Conversion→Stable
- Product Geographic Concentration↓Deteriorating
- Elevated Options Hedging Demand↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Amcor plc (AMCR) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup · Catalyst-Driven edge
Consumer Cyclical · Packaging & Containers
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $45.78: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.5/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality.
Amcor manufactures flexible and rigid consumer packaging across two segments—Global Flexible (72% of fiscal 2025 net sales) and Global Rigid (28%)—with 77,000 employees at 423 facilities in approximately 70 countries following its April 2025 merger with Berry Global Group.... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $45.78: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.5/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 64, MACD bullish. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 15d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-29Recent Developments — Amcor plc
Latest news
- NEWS Wells Fargo Maintains Equal-Weight on Amcor, Raises Price Target to $43 — benzinga Jul 17, 2026 positive
- NEWS Wall Street's Most Accurate Analysts Spotlight On 3 Materials Stocks Delivering High-Dividend Yields — benzinga Jul 17, 2026 neutral
- NEWS BMO Capital Initiates Coverage On Amcor with Market Perform Rating, Announces Price Target of $47 — benzinga Jul 17, 2026
- NEWS B of A Securities Maintains Buy on Amcor, Raises Price Target to $51 — benzinga Jul 14, 2026 positive
- NEWS Reported July 9: Amcor Starts Expansion Project At Its Flexible Packaging Solutions Site In Dongguan, China — benzinga Jul 10, 2026 positive
Generated 2026-07-30T22:33:56Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHProductGlobal Flexible Packaging Solutions segment72%10-K Item 1: 'the Global Flexible Packaging Solutions segment accounted for approximately 72% of consolidated net sales'
- HIGHGeographicdeveloped markets75%10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 75% of our sales revenue came from developed markets and 25% came from emerging markets'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $45.78: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.5/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 64, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $43.26. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $46.01 (-8.2% upside). Prior stop was $43.26. Stop-loss: $43.26.
Concentration risk — Product: Global Flexible Packaging Solutions segment (72.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: developed markets (75.0%); Target reached (-8.2% upside).
Amcor plc trades at a P/E of 36.5 (forward 10.9). TrendMatrix value score: 6.9/10. Verdict: Sell.
18 analysts cover AMCR with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $48.
What does Amcor plc do?Amcor manufactures flexible and rigid consumer packaging across two segments—Global Flexible (72% of fiscal 2025 net...
Amcor manufactures flexible and rigid consumer packaging across two segments—Global Flexible (72% of fiscal 2025 net sales) and Global Rigid (28%)—with 77,000 employees at 423 facilities in approximately 70 countries following its April 2025 merger with Berry Global Group. Revenue comes from selling packaging to consumer goods companies with no single customer exceeding 10% of net sales.