Amcor shows 77% revenue growth year-over-year and recovering price momentum, but free cash flow is converting at only 22% of net income, business quality sits at the minimum-threshold floor, a put/call ratio of 3.17 signals elevated institutional hedging demand, and dual concentration in flexible packaging and developed markets limits diversification — the position warrants an exit until quality and cash conversion improve.
Thesis pillars
- Poor Free Cash Conversion→Stable
- Product Geographic Concentration→Stable
- Elevated Options Hedging Demand→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Aug 14, 2026
Amcor plc (AMCR) Stock Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · Packaging & Containers
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $45.66 — A.R:R is negative (-0.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: Global Flexible Packaging Solutions segment (55.0%).
Amcor plc makes primary consumer packaging and dispensing solutions for nutrition, health, beauty and wellness categories, through Global Flexible Packaging Solutions (about 55% of fiscal 2026 net sales) and Global Rigid Packaging Solutions (about 45%). It completed its merger... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $45.66 — A.R:R is negative (-0.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: Global Flexible Packaging Solutions segment (55.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 6.2/10, high confidence.
Passes 4/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and SEC filing concern and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.
About Amcor plc
About Amcor plc
Amcor plc operates roughly 400 manufacturing and support facilities in 33 countries through two segments: Global Flexible Packaging Solutions, with 36,000 employees and 55% of fiscal 2026 consolidated net sales, and Global Rigid Packaging Solutions, with 38,000 employees and 45%. In fiscal 2026, 81% of sales revenue came from developed markets and 19% from emerging markets. The company completed its merger with Berry Global Group on April 30, 2025, and spent approximately $170 million on research and development.
Amcor sells polymer resin, aluminum and fiber based flexible packaging, plus rigid containers, closures, dispensing and pharma delivery devices, predominantly through its direct sales force to customers in Europe, North America, Latin America and Asia Pacific. Materials span paper, aluminum, polymer resins, recycled and bio-based inputs, so resin and aluminum costs feed directly into the cost base. Innovation relies on approximately 1,500 R&D professionals and engineers and over 7,000 patents, registered designs and trademarks. In the Berry merger, Berry shareholders received 7.25 Amcor ordinary shares per Berry share. On May 1, 2026, the Board changed the fiscal year end from June 30 to December 31, with a six-month transition report on Form 10-K/T planned for the period ending December 31, 2026. The company targets net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, and its science-based targets were validated by the Science Based Targets initiative in fiscal 2026.
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Customer relationships carry the main falsifiable risk. The 10-K states that no single customer accounted for more than 10% of net sales, yet customer concentration can be more pronounced within certain businesses, so the loss of key customers or a significant reduction in their production requirements could reduce sales revenue and net profit. In August 2026, the company disclosed via Form 8-K that PricewaterhouseCoopers AG, Switzerland resigned as auditor and PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, United States was appointed beginning with the transition fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, effective August 14, 2026.
See also: Consumer Cyclical · Packaging & Containers
From Amcor plc's most recent 10-K filing, extracted October 18, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — Amcor plc
Latest news
- NEWS A Look at Amcor PLC (AMCR) After 3.5% Gain -- GF Value $49.42 vs Price $47.45 - GuruFocus — GuruFocus positive
- NEWS Amcor PLC stock rises Wednesday, outperforms market - MarketWatch — MarketWatch positive
- NEWS Amcor stock extends 2026 rally as dividend and earnings upgrade support packaging giant - Ad-hoc-news.de — Ad-hoc-news.de positive
- NEWS Amcor (AMCR) Daily Price Brief: Posts a 0.72% Gain to $45.86 in the Latest Reading; Support and Resistance - dars.gov.et — dars.gov.et neutral
- NEWS Truist reiterates Amcor stock Buy rating, keeps $51 price target By Investing.com - Investing.com South Africa — Investing.com South Africa positive
Generated 2026-10-29T11:14:31Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHProductGlobal Flexible Packaging Solutions segment55%10-K Item 1: 'In fiscal year 2026, the Global Flexible Packaging Solutions segment accounted for approximately 55% of consolidated net sales.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-08-14Item 4.01HIGHBoard accepted resignation of PwC Switzerland as auditor and appointed PwC US effective Aug 14, 2026, starting with the transition year ending Dec 31, 2026. Same PwC network; no reason cited in the provided text.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 ceiling hit
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $45.66 — A.R:R is negative (-0.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: Global Flexible Packaging Solutions segment (55.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $43.86. Score 6.2/10, high confidence.
Analyst target $43.56 reached (−4.6% from $45.66); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $43.86. Stop-loss: $43.86.
Concentration risk — Product: Global Flexible Packaging Solutions segment (55.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.1).
Amcor plc trades at a P/E of 19.2 (forward 10.5). TrendMatrix value score: 7.0/10. Verdict: Sell.
20 analysts cover AMCR with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $50.
What does Amcor plc do?Amcor plc makes primary consumer packaging and dispensing solutions for nutrition, health, beauty and wellness...
Amcor plc makes primary consumer packaging and dispensing solutions for nutrition, health, beauty and wellness categories, through Global Flexible Packaging Solutions (about 55% of fiscal 2026 net sales) and Global Rigid Packaging Solutions (about 45%). It completed its merger with Berry Global on April 30, 2025, and sells mainly through a direct sales force across Europe, North America, Latin America and Asia Pacific, with no customer above 10% of net sales.