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AMCRAmcor plcSell5.3·$40.50+1.45%
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Amcor plc (AMCR) Stock Analysis

Momentum Cont setup

SellModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Packaging & Containers

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $40.50: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.36; Below-average business quality.

Amcor manufactures flexible and rigid consumer packaging across two segments—Global Flexible (72% of fiscal 2025 net sales) and Global Rigid (28%)—with 77,000 employees at 423 facilities in approximately 70 countries following its April 2025 merger with Berry Global Group.... Read more

$40.50+3.3% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#11 of 16 Packaging & Containers
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield0.80%
IncomeYield6.40%(5y avg 4.87%)Payout206.83%at-risk
Stop $38.52Target $41.95(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.3:1
Analyst target$48.21+19.0%11 analysts
$41.95our TP
$40.50price
$48.21mean
$60

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $40.50: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.36; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 65, MACD bullish. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 60d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-14

Recent Developments — Amcor plc

Generated 2026-06-15T18:11:46Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 13, 202660d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: Global Flexible Packaging Solutions segment (72.0%)
Concentration risk — Geographic: developed markets (75.0%)
Quality below floor (3.0 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)32.5
P/E (Fwd)9.5
Mkt Cap$18.8B
EV/EBITDA10.6
Profit Mgn3.1%
ROE8.7%
Rev Growth77.4%
Beta0.64
Dividend6.40%
Rating analysts18

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C1.36bearish
IV63%elevated
Max Pain$15-63.0% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductGlobal Flexible Packaging Solutions segment72%
    10-K Item 1: 'the Global Flexible Packaging Solutions segment accounted for approximately 72% of consolidated net sales'
  • HIGHGeographicdeveloped markets75%
    10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 75% of our sales revenue came from developed markets and 25% came from emerging markets'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.0
Net Margin
1.5
Fcf Quality
1.8
Roa
2.7
Roe
2.9
Operating Margin
3.4
Piotroski F
4.4
Moat
4.9
Current Ratio
5.3
Earnings quality RED FLAG: 22% FCF/NINo competitive moatQuality concerns

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
0.7
Gap
5.0
52w Position
6.4

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
1.2
Earnings History
3.3
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Dividend Safety
5.2
Earnings concerns: 2B/2MDividend: 640.0%
GatesA.R:R 0.3 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 7.0>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 60d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARMomentum ContSuitability: Moderate
RSI
65 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $35.66Resistance $40.95

Price Targets

$39
$42
A.Upside+3.6%
A.R:R0.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.0 < 4.0)
! asymmetry at 0.3 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-13 (60d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AMCR stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $40.50: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.36; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 65, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $38.52. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AMCR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $41.95 (+3.3% upside). Prior stop was $38.52. Stop-loss: $38.52.

What are the risks of investing in AMCR?

Concentration risk — Product: Global Flexible Packaging Solutions segment (72.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: developed markets (75.0%); Quality below floor (3.0 < 4.0).

Is AMCR overvalued or undervalued?

Amcor plc trades at a P/E of 32.5 (forward 9.5). TrendMatrix value score: 7.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AMCR?

18 analysts cover AMCR with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $48.

What does Amcor plc do?Amcor manufactures flexible and rigid consumer packaging across two segments—Global Flexible (72% of fiscal 2025 net...

Amcor manufactures flexible and rigid consumer packaging across two segments—Global Flexible (72% of fiscal 2025 net sales) and Global Rigid (28%)—with 77,000 employees at 423 facilities in approximately 70 countries following its April 2025 merger with Berry Global Group. Revenue comes from selling packaging to consumer goods companies with no single customer exceeding 10% of net sales.

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